July 27, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Take Chicago Cubs (-150) on the Money Line against Colorado Rockies risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Hendricks and De La Rosa must start for wager to have action)
The Cubs come into this game tonight after a terrible home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are one of the worst team not only in the NL but in all of the Majors and for the Cubs to have such a poor showing against them should be a wakeup call. Tonight they have a chance to make somewhat of an amends by hosting another of the NL's bottom dwelling teams, the Colorado Rockies. There is no question that perceptions will be slightly skewed coming into this contest considering that the Cubs are coming off being swept 3-0 by the Phillies, including being no-hit by veteran Cole Hamels, while the Rockies poured on the offense last night with a 15 hit, 17 run performance against the Cincinnati Reds. There is no question that many will be looking to back the Rockies in this contest, however we believe that would be a mistake.
Sports betting is a very reactive industry. Many people tend to react to what happened in a team’s previous performance, likely expecting the same scenario or result to repeat itself the following night rather than using foresight and expecting a team to bounce back. It's almost human nature to want to ride the recent trends, but in this instance we don't believe that is the correct decision. A lot has changed for both team heading into this contest and we believe this specific situation lends itself to favor the home team.
The Chicago Cubs need this win much more than the Rockies! They are the better overall team, with the better overall manager in Joe Maddon and after their recent showing against the Phillies; they now find themselves 2.5 games back of the Wild Card position. This is a team that has turned things around and worked extremely hard this season to shed their reputation for being a team that chokes when things get tough. Their series with the Phillies was likely a wakeup call and we'd be hard pressed to believe that they would allow another bottom dwelling team to come into Wrigley Field and have their way with them the way Philadelphia did. The Cubs should be extremely motivated in this contest and use that as their driving force to take their frustrations out on a team that has surely had their struggles on the road this season.
Coors field gives the Rockies a great advantage, arguably one of the biggest advantages in the Majors. They are good offensive team but on the highway, they have shown their struggles, not only with their terrible pitching and bullpen but even with their hitting. Their 18-27 road record proves how much they have struggled outside of Denver. Meanwhile the Cubs have had great success against left handed pitching this season as evident by their 12-7 record against southpaws. Jorge De La Rosa is coming off one of his worst outings of the season as he gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings of work against the Texas Rangers in his last start. He has had an issue keeping the ball inside the park recently as well as he's surrendered 5 home runs in his last 3 games. He's also given up an above average amount of free passes on base walking 7 batters in that same span. The Cubs have had success at getting to De La Rosa as well as they have a .314 on-base percentage against him thanks largely to the amount of free passes (walks) he's issued!
Wrigley Field has not been kind to the Rockies in the past and the Cubs have been a team that has seemingly had their number. Despite the recent performances of both teams as of late, there is no doubt that the Cubs are the better overall team. They have more to play for in this game and will likely be the more motivated team. The Rockies had a stellar outing against Cincinnati yesterday and that is likely to go to their heads. This is a team that has rarely held serve as they often suffer a losing record after recording a win this season. They have historically come into their next game after a win somewhat over-confident and disinterested and that could happen again tonight. We do expect this game to be closely contested but feel that Chicago has numerous advantages in this contest and that will be enough for them to snap their 3-game slide.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Cubs are a perfect 11-0 at home since July 2011 when opening a new series after a blowout (5+ run) loss!
- Rockies' leading RBI man, Nolan Arenado is just 1 for 7 in his career against Kyle Hendricks.
- Colorado has won only 2 of 20 games against teams with winning records in the second half of the season over the last 2 years!
- De La Rosa is 5-24 in road games against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in his career!
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