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July 12, 2015 (Posted at 12:00 PM ET)

Take Minnesota Twins (-127) on the Money Line against Detroit Tigers risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Gibson and Greene must start for wager to have action)

The Twins currently lead this important series 2-1 and have a chance to win their first against Detroit this season by clinching this 4th and final game! Having dropped the first 3 series of the year to their AL Central rivals, they'll be keen to change the tone. Kyle Gibson has been Minnesota's most consistent pitcher this season and will be facing off against Shane Greene who was recalled from Triple-A to fill Ryan's spot. It's been a season to forget for the young righty. He'll be making his first MLB start since June 10th and was hit hard prior to his demotion. He's got a 5.82 ERA in the Majors after 13 starts this year and is unlikely to fare much better this afternoon. He was removed from Wednesday's Toledo start after just 3 innings and 37 pitches in anticipation of this game and that may affect his rhythm. Against a Twins squad that is seeing the ball extremely well at the moment in what could be another slugfest, his struggles should continue as he owns an ugly 7.5 ERA in 6 starts away from Comerica Park!

Kyle Gibson in contrast, sports a solid 3.04 ERA on the season and knows how to limit damage. He's not a pitcher that wows fans with his stuff but he's a smart hurler that knows how to get out of jams and use the defense behind him to get outs. He's frequently induced hitters to ground into double-plays and is efficient and experienced at this level. Gibson has been on a roll recently having won his last 3 starts while sporting an impressive 1.74 ERA in that span! The Orioles lineup is one of the most dangerous and yet he handled them just fine on Tuesday giving up just 2 runs. Neither pitcher is likely to be perfect today and we believe that Gibson may well come out on top even if he gives up 4 runs in this outing. This could be another shootout and it is likely that he'll have the edge on the mound against Greene even if he doesn't have his best stuff. 

Minnesota Twins have been written off all season but they don't care about what the media or average MLB fan thinks! They are a determined and tenacious group and have already shown their heart in this series. After mounting an incredible rally on Friday night to win a game that they were trailing 6-1 in the 9th inning, they showed renewed confidence as expected and raced to a 7-0 lead against the Tigers on Saturday! They ended up winning yesterday's game 9-5 to bring us an easy winner and while we expect a tigher game today, they still have numerous advantages which should see them edge it. We don't like the Twins as much as we did yesterday but having seen the odds drop as much as they have (opened at -155 and is now at -127!), there is now definite value on the capable home side. At the opening number, we would have skipped this matchup but the odds have shifted so much that backing the home side presents sufficient value once again. Profiting from baseball is all about going where there is most value and ignoring temporary results. If a team should have -140 odds in a certain matchup but is currently -127, a wager is warranted regardless of the end result. Taking advantage of such market misprices is what leads to long term (seasonal) profit.

Brad Ausmus has yet to give this Tigers roster the confidence that they had under Jim Leyland. Part of that shaky self-esteem comes from a lackluster bullpen that has been hit hard for much of the season. Detroit had to go to its relievers once again very early yesterday after starter Alfredo Simon was roughed up for 7 runs in just 3 innings! On the other side, Phil Hughes while far from perfect lasted much longer and saved some fresh arms for Sunday's series finale. Not only should Gibson have the edge on the mound over Greene today but Minnesota has the fresher and more capable relievers to call upon. They also have All-Star closer Glen Perkins who has not given up a run since May, ready to seal the deal! The southpaw has gotten the better of Cespedes and the rest of the Tigers in the past and can do so again if this game goes down the wire.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Twins are 15-7 in day games at home.
  • Twins have won 6 of their last 7 games at Target Field!
  • Tigers are just 7-14 on the road when the total is set at 8 or 8.5 runs.
  • The Minnesota bullpen is 16-1 (94%) in save opportunities at Target Field this season! 

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