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July 10, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)

Picks will be posted at 3:00 PM ET on Saturday.

Take Texas Rangers (-140) on the Money Line against San Diego Padres risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Rodriguez and Kennedy must start for wager to have action)

This is an interesting matchup since it pits two clubs against each other that are both currently in a funk and riding 5-game losing streaks! While there's at times not a lot of value backing a struggling team, we do feel that this matchup favors one side much more than the other and expect the home team to snap their recent skid and clinch victory.

The San Diego Padres are a team that came into this season with high hopes after making some strong moves in the offseason. Things obviously haven't played out nearly as well as this team had hoped and simply have not been able to develop the chemistry or momentum to make an impact this season. With a lot of high profile and high salaried players now on this roster who expected to be in contention, we believe that many on this team are now frustrated and dejected and that has carried over to their play on the field. Looking at this team, you can see it in their body language, they many simply are not giving it their all. With each loss they go deeper and deeper into the basement of their division and at this point any hopes of making the postseason is extremely slim. They are simply too far behind in the standings at this point in the season being 8.5 games back of even a Wild Card spot. 

While the Rangers may be a bit dejected due to their recent play as well, they are a team that still has hopes of making the playoffs as they are only 4.5 games out of the Wild Card race with the All-Star break approaching. Texas has shown flashes of brilliance this season and has an extremely explosive lineup when they are seeing the ball well. Their lineup is full of left handed batters who have the ability to crush the ball and often thrive in a shootout style matchup. That's what we believe this could likely turn in to judging by the total that the odds makers have set for this game. When the game is high scoring, that is where this Texas team is at its best.  

That being said, the Padres will start veteran pitcher Ian Kennedy tonight. Kennedy is a pitcher who is way past his prime and does not have the velocity on his pitches like he once had. This had made him extremely hittable as a pitcher and that won't bode well against a Texas lineup that has had a history of hitting him hard in the past and could be in for another struggling start tonight. Meanwhile the Rangers will start Wandy Rodriguez on the mound tonight. It's well documented that the Friar's lineup has been inconsistent at best when it comes to offense this season. This team's biggest bright spot has been the play of Justin Upton who has proven to be San Diego's biggest offensive weapon. The bad news for them tonight however is that Upton has struggled against Rodriguez in his career with a lifetime batting average of just .157 in 13 at-bats! San Diego will also be missing the speed and enthusiasm of Cory Spangenberg in this contest and Jedd Gyorko who is another error-prone infielder (like Will Middlebrooks) is starting instead.

The Texas Rangers have lost their last 5 games at home. It has been a long time since the fans in Arlington have had much to cheer for; we expect that to change tonight. This is an extremely winnable game for Texas who will no doubt be looking to turn their recent fortunes around and should be able to take advantage of a San Diego team who is likely just looking for a few days rest at the All-Star Break. There was a significant shift in the odds for this game earlier this afternoon and we believe it was for good reason. This if course is an interleague matchup which also favors the home side since it will be played under AL rules; something that the Friars are not used to playing and now they have to deal with a guy like Prince Fielder as the DH in addition to an already stacked lineup and we don’t believe this demoralized San Diego side is up for it. If the Texas bullpen can keep from imploding in the later stages of this contest, we believe the Rangers will come out with the victory.  

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Padres are 4-10 against American League clubs this season!
  • Padres are just 6-14 on the road when the total has been 9 to 9.5 runs over the last 3 seasons.
  • Padres are an awful 0-11 since April 2015 when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost!

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