July 2, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Sports Profit System wins and loses with its clients. That's because no one wagers bigger on these picks than we do! Therefore when we're riding one of our extended winning streaks such as when we won 20 out of 27, our own bankrolls earn a great return and on the other hand, when on a cold streak, no one suffers more.
Having successfully done this for years, temporary streaks don't faze us as they are ultimately meaningless. It is seasonal results that matter. We crushed the books in NFL and NBA and will do the same with MLB when it is all said and done.
Take the UNDER 8 total runs in Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Garza and Billingsley must start for wager to have action)
Anyone who has watched this series unfold has seen an offensive slugfest the last 3 nights. In fact, 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have resulted in scores going Over the posted number of runs. The betting public has been used to seeing both of these two teams duke it out on the offensive end and we believe they will be expecting that to continue tonight. We however, don't believe that will be the case. This series has lulled many into a false sense of security and this is the night where we believe the house takes back control.
It's true that Matt Garza isn't having a great season this year and has been on the decline since his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he has still flashed flashes of brilliance and has a real chance to return to that form tonight against a rather weak Phillies batting order. What we find interesting as well is the fact that two of the very few batters in this lineup in Carlos Ruiz and Andres Blanco, both of whom have had success against Garza in their careers will be sitting out of tonight's game. Meanwhile, Ryan Howard who is hitless in 13 at-bats against the veteran Garza is starting at 1st base tonight. The Phillies have a stronger 'defensive' lineup than offensive one tonight and we believe that'll help this game stay 'Under'. Meanwhile Billingsley has had a poor season as well but his last start was back in May and he has spent time fixing his mechanics. Most of the Crew's batting order has had very little appearances against him and those who have, have enjoyed little success.
Milwaukee as a team has hits lefties much better than they have righties this season. In fact both teams struggle against right-handed starters and that is the pitching matchup we have tonight. Brewers are just 22-41 against righties this season while Phillies have lost (44) exactly twice as many as they've won (22)! Milwaukee's bullpen has been better on the road this season and that is largely aided by K-Rod (Francisco Rodriguez)! The veteran closer is a perfect 9-0 in save situations on the highway this season! Meanwhile Phillies have Jonathan Papelbon who is still an elite closer in the league. Both pitchers have the ability to close the game out and get their respective team the win while limiting runs.
Both teams will be motivated in this game for very different reasons, but motivation doesn't necessarily mean high scoring. The Phillies are the laughing stock of the league right now and want to avoid an embarrassing sweep against a team that is one of the worst in National League. The Brewers meanwhile want to get their very first sweep of the season and with this being a 4-game series, that's even more impressive. They've won the first 3 and want to get the brooms out. One factor that has led to really high-scoring games is that not only have the Brewers been averaging double-digit hits but they've also been very poor on the defensive end, fielding the ball. They've committed a total of 6 errors in their last 3 games and that's led to unearned runs being put on the scoreboard. We believe they'll play a much cleaner game tonight and that should help keep the score low.
This game won't necessarily be a pitcher’s duel. There still will be a fair amount of runs scored in this contest, but not enough to push it Over this total. There has been a lot of 2-out RBI's in this series over the past few nights. Pitchers will have learned from teammates as well and will be more careful when they already have 2 outs to end the inning and not allow extra runs. A couple of double-plays could go a long way and the two defenses are set up in ways that we can see that happen tonight. Let's not forget that these two clubs are among the worst in the Majors in hitting and have an on-base percentage of .293 and .294 and their hitters strike out, a lot! Stolen bases have also contributed to some of the higher scoring contests in this series however the Phillies' leading base stealer Ben Revere is not in the lineup which should prevent players from swiping a free base. Jonathan Lucroy is also one of the best in the league at catching runners stealing. It could be foolish if the Phillies attempt to challenge him. One interesting key fact is that after the Brewers had won the previous night over the last 3 season, 100 out of those 182 games, the total had gone 'Under'. We believe that if both pitchers can keep the ball down when there are men on base and limit opposition to solo homeruns, and this game avoid extra innings, it should fall just a run or two of the total and stay 'Under'.
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