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January 24, 2015 (Posted at 11:00 AM ET)

Sports Profit System is 16-7 in January! Today's picks risk 2% of the bankroll each.


#1: Take Purdue at -1 spread against Iowa risking 2%

The #25 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Mackey Arena to take on the Purdue Boilermakers in Big Ten action this afternoon. 
The Purdue Boilermakers come into this contest having split their last six games and will be looking for their fourth Big Ten win of the season when they meet the Hawkeyes today. Purdue has played 3 of their last 4 games on the road against some pretty stiff competition, so now finally being back at home should give them a decided advantage in this contest.  

On the season, the Boilermakers are averaging 72.8 points on 45.7 percent shooting from the floor.  Six players on this team average at least 9 points per game, with three averaging in double figures. Kendall Stephens is the driving force on this offense and leads the team, averaging 10.9 points a night. Isaac Haas puts up 9.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game while Vince Edwards adds in 10.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per contest. A.J. Hammons contributes 10.6 a night with a team leading 6.3 rebounds. Purdue has shown their ability to shoot the 3 ball as they connect on over 33% from downtown. Stephens leads the team with 48 triples while Dakota Mathias is next in line with 18, and Edwards has hit 18 treys of his own.

Defense has been a staple of the Boilermakers, especially on their home court. On the season they have held teams to just an average of 57 points per game on 36% shooting from the floor. Purdue is also a team that has a lot of length which has allowed them to clog up the paint, making it difficult for teams to play inside. The Boilermakers currently rank 26th in the nation in blocked shots, averaging 5 per game. Their size has also helped the on the glass as they average 40 rebounds per game on their home floor. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes come into this contest ranked 25th in the nation. However, they are coming off of what was their most embarrassing defeat this season, a 32 point blowout loss to the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison. In that game, the Hawkeyes were held to 43.5 percent from the field, went 6 of 15 from three point range, were outrebounded on the glass by a 37-23 margin, and only attempted 10 foul shots for the game. While the Hawkeyes will be looking to no doubt rebound from that performance, that may be tough against a team like Purdue who plays a similar style of basketball to that of the Badgers. 

Iowa is just 3-4 on the road this season, the reason for that being the serious disparity in their offensive and defensive numbers on the highway compared to at home. The Hawkeyes average nearly 10 points less on the road, scoring just an average of 60 points per game. They've also been held to just 38% from the field in road games this season. 

Both of these teams lost to the Badgers in Madison this season; however it was the Boilermakers who kept their game competitive, falling by just 7. The Hawkeyes were easily handled by Wisconsin and we believe they've laid the blueprint for Purdue on how best to neutralize their attack. The Boilermakers should have the advantage nearly everywhere on the floor in this contest and having struggled on the road recently, they should find the confines of Mackey Arena a welcomed sight, with the home crowd giving them the added boost needed  to come away with the victory. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Iowa is 3-10 in the last 13 meetings at Purdue!
  • Purdue is 8-3 at home this season.
  • Iowa is just 1-6 ATS after allowing more than 80 points over the last 3 seasons! 
  • Iowa is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS loss and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after a straight up loss.
     

#2: Take Mississippi at -1 spread against Florida risking 2%

The Florida Gators travel to C. M. Tad Smith Coliseum to take on the Ole Miss Rebels for a 6:00pm EST start.  

This is not the same Florida Gators team that dominated a season ago going 18-0 in SEC play. A big reason why the Gators were such a successful team last season was due to the fact that their starters were all experienced seniors. That provided them with not only leadership on the sidelines from Coach Billy Donovan, but also leadership on the floor from the likes of Casey Prather, Scottie Wilbeken and Patrick Young. This is no doubt a down year after some much talent left this roster and it has shown in Florida's numbers. The Gators are 184th in the nation in scoring offense this season, averaging just 67.3 points per game. They are not a great rebounding team, ranking 194th in nation. They are also 113th in assists and 107th in field goal percentage. Florida comes into this contest having lost their second straight game, following a 79-61 defeat at home against LSU on Tuesday night. What's interesting is that the odds makers had the Gators heavily favored by double digits and that game was not even close. This Gators team is one that has their issues on the floor and this could be a bad matchup for them against an Ole Miss team that has played much better than people have given them credit for. 

The Rebels have a prolific offense that is ranked 45th in the country in scoring as they put up 74.3 points per game. They are also a sound rebounding team ranking 43rd in the country. Six players on this team average at least 6 points a game with three players in double figures. Stefan Moody is the leader of this offense and leads the team with 15.6 points a game. Jarvis Summers puts up an average of 13.3 points with a team leading 3.7 assists and Ladarius White contributes 11.6 points per contest. Where Ole Miss has a decided edge over nearly every opponent is at the charity stripe. They are a fantastic free throw shooting team as they hit 79.8% from the foul line. They are also an incredibly accurate team from beyond the arc, connecting on 35.6 percent of their attempts from downtown; Moody leads the team with 40 triples while White has drained 32 and Summers has 19! 

The Rebels are a team that likes to get out on the floor and run. Their struggles this season have been on the defensive end as their focus has been to try to turn every game into a track meet and simply outscore their opponents. While their defense has been looked at as a weakness and has cost them in games, it's not much of a concern in this game against a somewhat offensively challenged Florida team. Florida is a big named opponent and the Rebels have shown their ability to get motivated for these types of contests. Let's not forget that they nearly upset the Kentucky Wildcats and for them to be able to navigate that vaunted defense shows that they have a capable offense. 

The oddmakers opened this contest at Ole Miss -3 and the betting public has beaten this line all the way down to a virtual pick'em! We feel that perceptions are somewhat skewed here. This is not the same Florida team as years past. The Gators are a team that he relied on their defense to keep them in games when their offense has gone cold. Playing in a hostile environment is never an easy task and the Rebels should have the advantage nearly everywhere on the floor. The Rebels' ability to rebound the basketball as well as their ability to put points on the board in a hurry will be a major hurdle for the Gators to overcome. The home crowd should give Ole Miss the advantage. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven after an ATS loss!
  • Florida is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine after a game they didn't cover.
  • Ole Miss is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a straight up loss. 
  • Florida is 1-3 in their last 4 games when listed as an underdog.



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