February 22, 2015 (Posted at 11:00 AM ET)
No one suffers more than Sports Profit System, when we go on a cold streak for two simple reasons: 1) We wager huge amounts of money on each pick and therefore win and lose more than our clients! 2) Unlike the vast majority of other services, we are 100% transparent with results despite the fact that our honesty greatly harms sales during poor streaks! That is okay with us because we believe in doing things the right way and know that experienced sport bettors evaluate long-term results and not short-term streaks since they are temporary and ultimately meaningless.
A minority may be considering jumping off at this time but that would be a big mistake and one that they will quickly regret! That's because even championship winning teams go through slumps and there is in fact no better time to stay on board with the best handicapping service. We'll go on to have a wonderful 2015 and those that are in it for the long-run will profit immensely!
There are two NBA picks today.
#1: Take NY Knicks at +16.5 spread against Cleveland Cavaliers risking 3%
This is a game that on paper is a mismatch. The New York Knicks have shut down Carmelo Anthony for the year and have seemingly given up on this season. They have started to get the younger players on their roster involved in logging heavy minutes in order to gauge their talent level in preparation for next season. That was evident in the Knicks most recent outing, losing 11-87 at home to the Miami Heat. In that contest, Langston Galloway was their top scorer with 19 points on 7-14 shooting from the field. Off the bench, Tim Hardaway Jr. added 17 points on 6-9 shooting. Even without Melo in the lineup, it's these types of players like Galloway and Hardaway Jr. that will at least take the court and try to put in their best effort in order to increase their stock in the eyes of the organization. The Knicks will also have the services of Andrea Bargnani back in the lineup. Bargnani is a very capable scorer in his day. With no Melo in the lineup, this has opened up the door for others to step up and make a name for themselves while passing the ball around without one person hogging the ball. Playing against a team like the Cavaliers and and against former teammates like JR Smith will motivate this group to put in an effort and not go down without a fight!
The Cleveland Cavaliers were the favorites to win the East this season and have gotten back in the good graces of the public sports bettors. They are coming off a blowout win over the Washington Wizards 127-89 on the road. It was an impressive performance and the Cavs are playing like a well-oiled machine at the moment which has only raised their stock along with expectations. There is no doubt that these two teams are heading in opposite directions and the perception of these teams couldn't be more different, however for the Cavaliers to be laying 16 points on the road is simply ridiculous as their desire to cover the spread will not match their desire to simply win the game. They were up for the game against Washington because the Wizards are a direct rival in the East and a team that they surpassed in the standings with that victory. That is not the case today and yet people will bet on Cleveland regardless of the number of points they have to lay. This is one of the most public bets on the day and one where we feel most will be left scratching their heads at the final score.
It is almost a given that the Cavaliers will win this game, there is not much of a question about that, however we do believe this line has been inflated. Winning by 16+ points is hard enough in this league, let alone to win by that many on the road and when everyone expects it. There are a number of variables that come into play and the slightest bit of complacency or lack of focus could result in an easy bucket by the opposing team which could allow them to keep the score within this generous number. We have seen many times that a team up by 20 points in the final few minutes knows the game is out of reach and ultimately stops playing which allows the opponents to close the gap even though there is no chance to win. These types of backdoor covers happen all the time with bigger spreads which makes backing large favorites extremely dangerous even when they are the better overall team.
Cleveland has also not been the same team in a hostile environment as they have been on their home court. When team plays on their home floor, the fans are behind them, they are loud, disruptive and the home team feeds off that energy. That is a big reason why we see many more blowouts by a home team than a team on the road. When a road team grabs a big lead, it become much harder to hold it and also a team becomes almost somewhat disinterested in extending their lead. There is no energy in the building, the fans are rallying behind their team and both teams are likely just looking to end the game. That could be the case here. In all likely hood, the Cavaliers will likely jump out to an early double digit lead and hold it for most of the game. The question becomes, at what point do the starters come out and does head coach David Blatt "call off the dogs". We feel that if the Knicks can reach at least 90 points this afternoon, which should be enough to cover this generous number. These two teams split their last 2 meetings in games that were much closer than expected and while this one may not be as close, a backdoor cover is another possibility.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents!
- Knicks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.
- Knicks are 9-6 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.
#2: Take Portland Blazers at -3.5 spread against Memphis Grizzlies risking 3%
The Trail Blazers laid a complete egg in the second half of their last game with the Utah Jazz. In the first contest back from the All-Star break, it was evident that the Blazers had a bit of rust on them as most clubs do. The Jazz were able to shut down their offense and punished the normally stout Portland defense. It was an all-around poor performance and tonight we expect them to bounce back as they often do. Despite their ugly performance against the Jazz, the oddsmakers feel that the Blazers are more than a possession favorites over the Grizzlies tonight and we agree with that. It is likely that after a lengthy layoff, Memphis could fall victim to the same misfortunes that befell the Blazers in their last outing.
Memphis is one of the top teams in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. The Grizzlies have won both meetings against the Blazers this season, so Portland will find themselves in a double revenge situation tonight! The next meeting will be at the FedEx Forum next month so this is in all likelihood, the Blazers' best chance to get back into this series with a win, otherwise they face a potentially embarrassing 4-0 sweep against a direct rival. In the West, where playoff seeding becomes so important, we can't see Portland dropping another home game to the very team they are chasing, Grizzlies, especially in their first game back from a long break. The Blazers aren't likely to have back to back poor performances either.
Portland will get an added boost with Arron Afflalo joining them on court tonight. Afflalo adds another dimension to the already explosive Blazer offense and will provide a spark off the bench, something that Portland has been missing. One of the advantages that the Grizzlies typically have over their opponents is their defense and their size. That may not be the case tonight. Portland has a nice compliment in size to combat both Gasol and Randolph down low and leads the league in defensive rebounds. Memphis has gotten the better of Portland over the last few seasons but we believe the Blazers are finally in a position to get one over them.
Memphis hasn't played since Feb 11th and it will take them some time to adjust back to game-speed. We have seen many teams struggle in their first game back from the All-Star break and we believe Memphis will too as they attempt to get their rhythm back. They will also continue to miss the services of veteran Vince Carter, who can be deadly from behind the arc. Portland is the better 3-point shooting team and also guards the perimeter better than their opponents. We believe long-range shooting could be the difference maker tonight.
Portland got off to a good start against Utah in their last outing but faded in the second half when they got complacent and started looking ahead to this contest . We expect to see a complete 48 minute effort in this contest as they bounce back and pick up ground in the Western Conference standing especially now playing at the Moda Center and in front of their home fans! The Blazers defense should hold the Grizzlies offense in check while their offense does just enough to grab the victory and cover this short number. Portland’s next game is in 3 days, so they will have no reason to not give it their all and no need to rest players Meanwhile David Joerger and his squad have an important matchup tomorrow with the Los Angeles Clippers, so he will likely have some tough decisions to make in regards to limiting minutes, rest and how much energy he wants his players to expend. These two clubs are both much better at home than on the road but it is the Blazers that host this one where they are 23-5 on the season! This is simply a poor schedulign spot for the Grizzlies to find themselves in and one which favors the motivated home team.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Portland is 11-4 when revenging a loss this season!
- Memphis is just 4-9 ATS when playing with 3+ days of rest.
- Portland is 7-1 when playing on Sundays this season!
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