December 3rd, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
Take Green Bay Packers at -3 spread against Detroit Lions for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a revenge game for Packers! The Detroit Lions managed to surprise them a couple of weeks ago because they had essentially overlooked them given their dominance in the series at home, but tonight we don't believe Detroit will be as fortunate. Now that Lions are currently riding a hot streak and have already beaten the Pack in Lambeau for the first time since 1991, there is no doubt that they have Mike McCarthy's full attention!
Green Bay has struggled recently but they did win when they needed it most in hostile territory against a much better team, in Minnesota! The Packers are now once again in a similar situation and know that they need to win this game to keep pace with the division leading Vikings or they could be out of the running and will find it tough in the Wild Card race in a very competitive NFC conference! If Detroit were to win tonight, it would be their first sweep of the Packers since 1991 when Green Bay was a poor team (4-11 record) and having lost to them at home on Nov 15th already, we don't believe Clay Matthews and company will want to be embarrassed again! This is a must-win game for the Pack and we expect them to cool off the Lions and eliminate their slim playoff hopes. It's worth knowing that Lions are 6-11 ATS overall as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and that's despite getting a lot more points than just 3 on many occasions!
After the first 6 weeks of the season, Aaron Rodgers was being called arguably the best NFL QB ever and not just MVP, a once-in-a-generation type player. Now few dropped passes by receivers over the last few weeks, suddenly people are talking about Aaron Rodgers' low completion % and passer rating. It is completely absurd and shows the fickle nature of sports-bettors and the media. Rodgers is a truly elite quarterback and has proven that time and time again. Jordy Nelson's absence was always going to be problematic as everyone knew from before the season started. Nonetheless, they have others that can step up and make plays such as Randall Cobb. Eddie Lacy has rushed for 100+ yards in back to back games now and is ready to establish the run game along with James Starks for the Packers. Once they do that, Rodgers and his receivers will have a much easier time getting back to playing their style of football.
December is the month that Packers often not only win to cement their playoff status but also cover spreads. They are 47-26 ATS (against-the-spread) as favorites over the last few years in this month! They should have a much easier time with the Lions tonight as safety Glover Quin might miss the game with ankle issues. Of course there is a chance that he'll play but if he does, he's not 100%. Quin is not a household name but NFL experts know his impact as the ball-hawking defensive back has started 95 consecutive games, the longest active streak among safeties! It's also worth noting that Detroit did not turn the ball over in their last couple of games but we'd be very surprised to see them continue that tonight.
Unlike the Packers, the Lions have an atrocious December record in previous years since this is the month that usually spells doom for them. They are 1-7 ATS in their 8 previous December games! Much like the Cowboys/Panthers matchup, this is one game that is not worth overthinking. The Packers are hardly perfect but they are the better team and are also playing with revenge! We get them when their stock is at its lowest point this season which means an affordable spread and we'll gladly take it. We get the superior team at a cheap price laying just a FG because they're on a cold streak while their opponents have recently been hot. The average sports-bettor often overreacts to streaks and we will take advantage of that!
Other notable facts to consider:
- Packers are 40-19-1 ATS in last 60 division games!
- Lions have covered only 2 of 10 spreads after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years!
- Matt Stafford's team is 4-14 ATS when he's the QB in December games, which is the worst mark in NFL!
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