August 28, 2015 (Posted at 3:30 PM ET)
Picks will be posted at 2:00 PM ET on Saturday.
Take Milwaukee Brewers on the Money Line (-125) against Cincinnati Reds risking 3.75% of bankroll to win 3%.
(Jungmann and Iglesias must start for wager to have action)
This series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds may be of little consequence in terms of potential playoff positioning as both teams currently occupy the basement of the NL but that does not mean that this contest doesn’t present value. The Cincinnati Reds have been in a the midst of a major slump recently, losing 12 of their last 13 games with their one win coming when we successfully backed them against the Detroit Tigers on Aug 24th. The Reds seemingly are getting very little production from anyone on the squad. Their starting pitching are just 5-16 with a 5.53 ERA since July 31 and Home Run Derby champion and slugger, Todd Frazier has gone ice cold at the plate with just 2 home runs in his last 30 games and has not gone yard in his last 11 straight. Joey Votto seems to be the only member of the Reds who has been producing at the plate, but even that has not been enough to cure Cincinnati's woes.
The Milwaukee Brewers comes into this contest having won 4 straight games over Cincinnati and have a good shot at making it 5 in a row as they send one of the few bright spots on this team, starting pitcher Taylor Jungmann to the mound. Jungmann is coming off a rough outing his last time out, but has been spectacular at home this season where he has a very impressive 1.76 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. We had the foresight and accurately predicted that Jungmann would struggle against the Nationals however prior to that start, he had been amazing with 10 quality starts of allowing 2 or less earned runs. We believe he'll bounce back with another stellar performance against a Reds offense that was shutout once again last night and should be short on confidence heading into tonight's contest.
The Reds will counter with their own rookie on the mound in Raiesel Iglesias who is coming off his best MLB outing his last time out. While he certainly put on an impressive performance, we don't believe that will be to the betterment of his team tonight as it puts him in a definitive letdown spot. The young Cuban had 13 strike-outs in his start against Arizona and we feel that he is now being over-rated because of that one performance. Iglesias is far from the finished product and still has a lot to learn, the betting public is expecting another amazing performance from youngster but we believe they will be sorely disappointed tonight.
With the Reds starting rotation struggling mightily at the moment, that could spell disaster in this game. Both Ryan Braun and Adam Lind have hit the Reds pitching staff hard this season as each have four homers and 10 RBIs in the 10 meetings between these two teams this season. Kris Davis has also been making noise for the Crew recently Khris Davis and enters this contest with five homers over his past six games and a major league-high 10 since Aug. 6.
The Reds are dealing with a number of injuries at the moment to guys like Brennan Boesch and long term absentees like Zach Cozart and Devin Mesoraco. They of course traded away not only much of their pitching rotation but also guys like Marlon Byrd and the speed and base-stealing ability of Billy Hamilton is surely being missed! Tonight they're starting Ivan De Jesus (who is often seen the infield) and Ryan LaMarre in the outfield tonight while the Brew Crew have pretty much their best lineup out there.
Some may believe that this game doesn't matter since both are long out of the running for a playoff spot but we believe it does. Craig Counsell and his club have spent a majority of the season in the bottom of the NL Central division but have recently overtaken the Reds. They are currently only half a game ahead of them so a loss here at Miller Park would see Cincy overtake them in the standings and we don't believe they will allow that to happen. The home side has numerous advantages in this contest and we believe Milwaukee comes away with the closely contested victory.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Reds are 6-19 in the month of August!
- Reds are 0-10 since Jul 24, 2015 when seeking same season revenge vs. their opponents starting pitcher!
- Reds are 19-34 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 years.
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