August 25, 2015 (Posted at 3:00 PM ET)
It's been a solid MLB season betting on short favorites, underdogs and totals. Sports Profit System has now won 6 of its last 8 picks but it isn't short-term results that we concern ourselves with. Our goal has always been to finish the season ranked #1 and we are well on our way to topping all baseball charts among transparent and verified handicappers!
Football is just around the corner and SPS can't wait for what has been, historically, its most profitable sport!
Take LA Angels on the Money Line (-115) against Detroit Tigers risking 3.45% of the bankroll to win 3%.
(Weaver and Simon must start for wager to have action)
A pair of teams trying for an AL Wild Card spot battle it out tonight inside Comerica Park. Both teams have dropped 4 in a row but one is still firmly in the playoff hunt and we believe that gives them a motivational edge in this contest. Currently, Los Angeles sits just 1.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot and even has a chance to potentially catch the Houston Astros for the division crown sitting just 5 games back of the lead.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers’ hopes of returning to the postseason this year are almost all but dashed as they have watched the Kansas City Royals simply run away with the division this season. They are currently 5.5 games behind in the Wild Card race and would need a lot of help from the teams ahead of them to have any shot at making the postseason. At some point the realization that their season is over is going to set in for this team and we wouldn’t be completely surprised if that started to happen after last night’s defeat.
Detroit comes into this contest after a deflating loss to the Cincinnati Reds. The Tigers built up an early 5-0 lead but eventually saw the Reds come storming back, scoring 10 runs in the 6th inning to go on and win 12-5. Not only was it a demoralizing loss but it came against a team who had previously lost their last 9 straight game! After the game the Tigers then had to get on a plane and travel and in a quick turnaround are forced to play an extremely tough team who will likely be motivated to end their own recent skid. This is a terrible scheduling spot for Detroit tonight and we believe that will have an effect on their performance.
Meanwhile, LA comes into this contest fresh off a day of rest. Having recently dropped their last 4 straight, some time off was what this club needed to gather themselves and prep for a solid push towards the end of the season. That time off was likely well spent and they should be coming into this contest the more mentally focused team. The Angels are the all-around better team in many ways, including their bullpen. The Tigers had to use 5 pitchers in last night’s loss so fatigue could certainly be a factor tonight. The last time these two teams met was back in the end of May where the Angels swept a 4 game series from Detroit and outscored them 26-10 in the process. A series similar to that would prove vital to LA's hopes of making the postseason this year.
The Angels will send Jared Weaver to the mound tonight. Weaver comes into this contest with a 5-9 record on the season to go along with a 4.34 ERA, however he has been sensational since coming off the disabled this. He has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts (2.08 ERA), notching 15 strikeouts and just 2 walks during that span.
The Detroit Tigers will counter with right-hander Alfredo Simon in this contest. Simon has been struggling for the majority of the summer, but managed to mix in a complete game one-hitter in his last start against the Texas Rangers. Simon has now won three out his last four decisions and enters his start against the Angels with an 11-7 record to go along with a 4.52 ERA on the season. His metrics show that he is an extremely hittable pitcher but his overall record indicates that he has fortunately been bailed out by his offense for some of his lackluster performances. Even with his complete game, he owns a 4.35 ERA in three August starts. He hasn't been pitching well and the Angels bats should be able to have success against him tonight.
The Anaheim club is used to winning road games against losing teams in August under the leadership of Mike Scioscia and Tigers are a no doubt a 'losing club' this year. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and company know that the time to start winning is now and we believe they'll open this series with a win. There is a lot of value backing the Angels at this price and we believe they should have enough advantages to come away with the win.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Halos are 9-5 after an off day this season.
- Simon is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in 2 prior starts against LA Angels!
- Halos have won 10 of 15 games when the total was set at 9 or 9.5 runs.
- Halos are 65-32 over the last 3 years against teams with losing records in the second half of the season!
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