August 14, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)
Take Arizona Diamondbacks (-123) on the Money Line against Atlanta Braves risking 3.69% to win 3%.
(Ray and Teheran must start for wager to have action)
The Diamondbacks and Braves open their weekend with a 3-game series at Turner Field tonight. D-backs' pitcher Robbie Ray will take the mound for tonight's contest. Ray has been on the unfortunate end of things since the All Star Break despite putting in some quality performances. The southpaw has posted good seasonal numbers but hasn't gotten the necessary support in many instances to translate those starts into wins, hence his somewhat off putting 3-7 overall record. He has pitched much better than guys like Drew Hutchison and Nathan Eovaldi, whom have been fortunate despite some lackluster performances and also has performed statistically better than his counterpart tonight, Julio Teheran. Ray’s ERA, WHIP and other metrics show that for the most part, he's capable of producing quality innings and we believe he'll put in a good performance tonight. Unlike most pitchers, Ray has actually performed better on the road (2.18 ERA) than he has at home this season and has seen his WHIP drop to less than 1.00 on the highway!
Another advantage that Ray should have on the mound tonight is the fact that none of the Braves bats have seen him in their careers. As we have seen many times this season already, unknown pitchers often hold a distinct advantage on the mound as it typically take batters a couple of at bats to become accustomed to a new pitchers delivery and mechanics. Given how well Ray has pitched at times this season, against more potent offenses than Atlanta's, he should be able to keep their offense in check and baffle the lineup in the first couple of orders.
The same cannot be about Atlanta pitcher Julio Teheran. While Teheran has performed well in the second half of the season, he often struggles in the first couple of innings. He will be facing an extremely dangerous Diamondbacks lineup, one that has a solid mix of both power and speed! They have seen him pitch before and so he won't be able to catch them by surprise the way that Ray should be able to.
Fredi Gonzalez' club has struggled against left handed pitching for much of the season. They have lost 12 out of 20 games against southpaws and have batted just .214 against lefties scoring an average of only 2.7 runs in those contests! While neither of these teams have been getting much media hype this season, there is no doubt that one team is much better and well-rounded than the other. Diamondbacks offense has scored nearly 90 runs more than Braves while their pitching staff has allowed 14 less! They are the better team and there's a reason Braves are home underdogs in this contest. David Peralta, who is 11-for-15 with eight RBIs over his past four games, has had great success against the Braves in his career going 12-for-30 lifetime against them!
Not many casual fans may realize that Arizona ranks #1 in runs scored in the National League! They've crossed home plate 514 times, more than any other NL Club and rank near the top in nearly every offensive category but all that has gone unnoticed by most, since there isn't much media attention on this team. The DBacks still have an outside chance of making the playoffs this season but in order to do so, they need to begin piling up the wins and making a run towards the end of the season. The Braves currently have no shot at the postseason and are currently playing for next year, so in terms of motivation, one side certainly has more to gain or lose in this contest.
This is a cheap price to lay on a team that still has the motivation to win ball games with a solid pitcher who has excelled on the road this season, going up against a disinterested squad that has struggled against left handed pitching all season long.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Braves are just 3-8 after a day off this season!
- Diamondbacks have won their last 7 series openers!
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. left-handed starters.
- Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. teams with losing records.
- Diamondbacks have their last 8 games vs. starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30!
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