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August 7, 2015 (Posted at 3:00 PM ET)

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

Sports Profit System is constantly striving to improve the service quality and SPS customer experience. As such, we are excited to announce the following three changes to our members which will come into effect starting on Friday August 7th:

Play Rankings: Based on customer feedback as well as industry standards, after long and careful considerations, we have made the executive decision to increase the standard wager size from 3% to 4%. SPS picks will now be ranked on a scale of 3-5%, with 4% being our average bet size, 3% acting as a lean, and 5% wagers being confident step-out picks! The advantage of implementing this change is that it will increase our overall profit while still maintaining a low risk approach in a very safe betting framework.

Wagering Style: In the past, when taking a favorite, SPS has always risked a percentage of the bankroll to gain less (e.g. risk 3% to win 2.4%) such as Wednesday's picks. Some clients instead risk a certain amount to win 3%. These are two different styles of wagering, and SPS has now decided to switch to the latter given that we win more than we lose and as such, stand to profit more with the second style. This would also help avoid any confusion since the majority of North American bettors tend to wager this way.

Posting Times: We are excited to announce that picks will be posted earlier than the previous 5:00 PM ET preset time. Starting today, selections will be posted in the afternoon on weekdays allowing customers more time to place their wagers and often giving us better lines and odds than we would have taken later on in the day. Stay tuned for details. 
 

#1: Take Chicago White Sox as underdogs (+133) on the Money Line against KC Royals risking 4% of bankroll to win 5.32%.
(Danks and Volquez must start for wager to have action)

The White Sox kept their playoff hopes alive by rallying and winning in extra innings against a direct AL Wild Card rival, the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday. That was an extremely important victory as it kept them alive by putting them 5 games back of a potential Wild Card spot. The Southsiders had yesterday off which means they are coming into Kansas City well rested and ready to go, something that can not be said for the Royals. Ned Yost and his squad endured a rough road trip that included taxing games against both the Blue Jays and the Tigers. They were defeated in the series finale 8-6 last night at Comerica Park and used their best bullpen arms with the exception of closer, Gregg Holland.

It is a a well known handicapping fact that teams often find their first game back at home a difficult one as they have been away from their familes for awhile and have other matters to be distracted by. This is the Royals' first game back at the K and they are facing a motivated division rival that has just seen the Tigers take care of this squad. There's no doubt that the Royals are one of the best teams in the American League but on this particular night, it is the team from Chicago that enjoys numerous advantages.

John Danks will toe the rubber at Kauffmann stadium and if there's one club that he's had great success against through his career, it is the Royals, whom he owns a 9-1 record against! Despite seeing him quite often, the KC bats have yet to figure him out and have been held to a terrible .185 batting average! That isn't entiely surprising since the Royals have been a mediocre ball club against lefties all season and when they have lost, it's often been in this type of situation. The veteran southpaw is hardly the most talented pitcher but he's baffled the Royal bats in the past and is capable of doing the same again tonight. On the other hand, you have Edinson Volquez who is having a good season but was roughed up by the Toronto Blue Jays and even got in a tussle with them. His confidence could be affected by that outing and he could be less than sharp tonight. It also helps that several White Sox players including Adam LaRoche have hit the righty very hard in the past.

The Royals are known for their impressive relief core but Kelvin Herrara, Wade Davis, Morales and Madson were all used last night and have consistently been challenged in their recent road trip. They won't be as fresh and ready to be called upon as they normally are while Robin Ventura's side is coming into this game rested and ready to do damage. It is always risky taking an underdog against a quality club such as the Royals but in this case, the odds present great value since this is a 50-50 game that can go either way and yet the odds don't reflect that. Chicago has a better chance of winning this game than most believe and is capable of edging a close game; something they have done all season as evident by their impressive 9-3 record in extra inning games! They aren't the most talented team but they are tenacious and have shown that numerous times. Fade the public by backing the plucky underdogs knowing that they have won 10 out of 12 on the road in the second half of the season! 
 

#2: Take Houston Astros on the Money Line (-110) against Oakland Athletics risking 4.4% of bankroll to win 4%.
(Keuchel and Gray must start for wager to have action)

A matchup between the Astros and the A’s at this point in the season normally wouldn't be that exciting as the Astros appear headed for the playoffs, while the A's are simply counting down the days until next season. However, Dallas Keuchel will pitch opposite Sonny Gray on this Friday night clash and that sets up an intriguing pitcher’s duel. While we have nothing but respect for both starters on the mound tonight, we do feel that one side holds a significant edge in this contest. 

Dallas Keuchel has made two starts against the Oakland A's this season and he was absolutely dominant in both. He's logged a total of 16 innings against the A's and has yet to give up a single earned run against Bob Melvin's squad. Keuchel has proven himself as one of the very best southpaws in the game and it's no secret how much the A's roster has struggled against lefties this season as they are just 8-20 against them this season.

Meanwhile, Sonny Gray has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for Oakland. Gray has established himself as a top of the rotation hurler and has only 4 losses on the season but one of those defeats did come against this Houston team. Gray has also shown struggles at home pitching in the Coliseum at tunes. He hasn't won a decision at this venue since May and in fact three of his four losses this season have come at this ball park. Jose Altuve has had quite a bit of success against Sonny Gray in his career and has an uncanny ability to get on base. His speed makes him a big threat as he is extremely proficient in swiping bags and putting himself in scoring positions. He is currently riding a 17-game hitting streak and is often the spark and catalyst that boosts everyone else with his added enthusiasm and confidence.

As we had mentioned, it has been a disappointing season for Oakland and a big part of that has been their inability to win closely contested games. When it comes to 1-run losses, Oakland tops the charts this season. These types of close defeats have severely deflated the morale and confidence of this squad and now that they have no chance of making the post-season, it is hard to turn the page and step out determined the next day. The A's are coming off of not one, but two extra inning losses in back to back days! Oakland could be dejected and short on confidence tonight and that will give Houston an important edge.

The Astros are one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the league and it is no surprise that they have been successful this season. They have a lot of young talent that was due to break out and this is the season that everything has started to come together. Houston has been a cellar dwelling team for many years and now that they are starting to play well, they have rarely shown mercy. They play each and every game with a chip on their shoulder and that makes them a dangerous bunch. They have displayed that they are never out of a ball game and continue to play until the final out. Given the demoralizing manner of ways that Oakland has lost recently, Houston should certainly have the advantage offensively. Both pitchers are more than capable of putting in quality performances, but Houston should be the one to come away with the timely hits that seals the win.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Oakland A’s are 3-14 on Friday nights this season.
  • Astros are a perfect 8-0 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest! 
  • Oakland A’s have won just 4 of their last 14 games as a home underdog!
  • Dallas Keuchel has limited the A's to a lowly .219 batting average in 105 previous at-bats.



Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.