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August 4, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)

NOTICE: Picks will be posted at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday.
 

Take Atlanta Braves as underdogs (+117) on the Money Line against SF Giants risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Miller and Peavy must start for wager to have action)

The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants continue their series tonight from Turner Field in Atlanta. The Braves managed to take the series opener last night in a thriller that went to extra innings. We expect them to carry that momentum over into tonight’s contest as they send arguably their most consistent pitcher this season to the mound. 

Shelby Miller will get the start and he has been a solid starter in the rotation all season long, especially at home in Turner Field. He has given up just a total of 12 earned runs in nine home starts all season long, so opposing offenses have had trouble scoring against the right hander. He's also had success against the Giants this season having held them to just one run over seven innings of work. Miller's struggles on the mound this season has been no fault of his own. He has received zero runs of support in six of his last eight starts and was backed by a total of four in the other two. That's left him with an 0-6 record in that span despite a respectable 3.17 ERA! With Jake Peavy taking the mound tonight for the Giants, we expect Miller to get the run support that has eluded him nearly all season long. It’s also worth mentioning that the Giants' 3 biggest bats in their lineup (Posey, Hunter and Belt) have all struggled mightily against Shelby Miller in those limited at-bats with none hitting better than .125 against him!

Peavy was a solid pitcher in his prime but that was a long time ago and there is no question that father time has caught up with him. He is in not the same pitcher that he used to be and has been very poor on the road this season where he has an unimpressive 5.40 ERA! Peavy is also an extremely emotional character and that works against him on the mound. Composure is one of their most important attributes for a pitcher and unfortunately Peavy often allows those strong emotions to take over. That has led to some outright disastrous results as one or two walks or infield hits can open up a big inning against him! Peavy will also need to be weary of his former White Sox catcher AJ Pierzynski, who has been red hot. Pierzynski finished with four hits on Monday and is batting .459 in his last nine games and should have success against his former teammate tonight.

Last night the Braves managed to battle back from a 6 run deficit and somehow managed to win the game in extra innings. It was a valiant effort for a team that has endured some hardships this season and to do that against the defending World Series Champs no doubt will lift the confidence of the players. After a long losing streak, the Braves have now won two in a row and look like the Braves team that many remember, meanwhile the Giants have lost 3 of 4 and you can start to see the frustrations starting to set in. 

Just as last night's victory will likely elevate the Braves players, the way that the Giants lost the game will likely deflate theirs. It was a tough loss for the players to swallow especially in the fashion that they lost. That is something that is tough to bounce back from, especially on such a short turnaround. While the Braves will likely have a little bit extra of a bounce in their step heading into tonight contest, the Giants could find themselves a little bit sluggish after a tough loss. This is a favorable spot that the Braves find themselves in tonight and we believe they actually should have been the favorites in this contest. They are showing a lot of value as underdogs in this one and we believe they come away with the win. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Giants are 3-7 in Peavy's last 10 starts.
  • Peavy is just 17-26 over the last 2 seasons.
  • Atlanta has won 11 of its last 16 games at Turner Field! 
  • Braves are 13-7 at home when playing against teams with winning records.



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