August 3, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Tonight's pick is a 2% wager.
Take Milwaukee Brewers (-108) on the Money Line against San Diego Padres risking 2% of the bankroll.
(Peralta and Ross must start for wager to have action)
Both of these teams are likely out of contention for the postseason this year but they are currently heading in opposite directions. The Padres have actually been playing some pretty inspired baseball at the moment. The Friars have won six of their last eight games and have scored 15 runs in their last three games. They have also managed to win 6 of their last 8 road games. On the other side we have the Milwaukee Brewers who are currently in the midst of a 5 game losing streak and have been struggling offensively. The Brewers have scored six runs in their last three games and three or less runs in five straight games. They have been hitting just .200 with one home run while totaling just 15 runs during a recent 1-8 stretch. It would seem that the recent performances by both teams would indicate that this contest would severely favor the team that has been playing better baseball as of late, yet we don't believe that to be the case. There is a reason why Vegas listed this game as a virtual "pick 'em". The Padres are a public bet. This is exactly the type of scenario where the oddsmakers try to prey on the naive and we're not buying it.
Milwaukee may currently be on a 5-game losing streak, but we believe they will use that as a motivating factor tonight! Despite no longer harbouring playoff hopes, the front office of the Brewers did execute a well-designed plan to replenish the organization with some minor league talent at this year’s trade deadline. Milwaukee has showcased some good young pieces that should be ready to contribute on the 2016 roster. With the prospective talent that they have on their roster, they could even surprise some team this season and that's exactly what we expect to happen tonight.
The Friars will send right-hander Tyson Ross to the mound tonight. Ross garnered plenty of interest at the trade deadline, but the Padres must have been underwhelmed with the offers they received for him. He's likely disappointed and left his last start with tightness in the thigh area. Ross gave up a home run in his last start, snapping a streak of 16 starts having not allowed a homer. This could be a prelude of things to come. Ross is a pitcher who has issued an above average amount of walks this season, yet rarely has to pay for his mistakes. He will likely need to be on top of his game tonight though as Miller Park ranks at the top of the list for the most home run friendly park in the league. It wouldn't be surprising if the struggling Brewers are the ones who make Ross pay for issuing free passes tonight. Another factor that is note-worthy and could decide this game is the fact that Ross has given up a lot of stolen bases this season! With Derrek Norris out of the lineup and Austin Hedges taking over duties at catcher, that leave the Padres vulnerable to stolen bags.
The Brewers will counter with Wily Peralta tonight who will be making just his second start since returning from the disabled list. Peralta had a promising return last week when he blanked the San Francisco Giants through six innings before allowing two runs and five hits in a 5-2 road victory. Now pitching back at home, we expect him to have a similar showing against a Friars' offense that has shown their ability to struggle at the plate at times.
The Padres are also a team that has been doing a lot of traveling as of late. Since the 28th, the West coast team has spent time in New York, then travelled to Miami and then yesterday had to take a flight to Milwaukee! That kind of rigorous schedule for a team that isn't in post-season contention can be too tiresome to deal with. We wouldn't be surprised if they showed a lack of interest tonight. The Brew crew will be the side that comes out and plays this game with determination and purpose and will likely edge a closely game while also burying the public in the process.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Brewers are 4-1 in Peralta's last 5 starts.
- The Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 games after a loss.
- The Brewers have won 2 of the last 3 meetings at Miller Park.
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