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April 15, 2015 (Posted at 6:00 PM ET)

This is a 2% pick.

Tonight is the regular season finale with the NBA playoffs starting this weekend! SPS has had great success and expects similar results in the post-season. In other news, our first MLB pick of the season will be released tomorrow!

Take Golden State Warriors at -11 spread against Denver Nuggets risking 2% of bankroll.

This is the final night of the regular NBA season. On a card like this, there are a lot of questions up in the air in regards to which players will play, which ones will rest and which teams will show up. While the end of the season is tough to predict, there are relative consistencies when looking at certain teams. Golden State is a side that has been the epitome of consistency this season. Even when it has appeared that they have nothing to play for, they've still manage to step up and play with pride and purpose. That has been a foundation for this roster this season and that is a testament to not only the passion of the players but also their coach, Steve Kerr. This is an ambitious squad with an ambitious coach; they are never satisfied and want to continue making history. Tonight, they can achieve a couple more milestones.

This is a squad that has enjoyed one of the most dominant seasons in recent NBA history! At the Oracle, they have been nearly unbeatable and tonight, in what is their final home game of the season, we expect them to look to finish the season with an impressive 39-2 home record! This is a side that often plays the full 48 minutes of a basketball game, whether their starters have been on the floor or not. After giving up late backdoor covers to Minnesota and Memphis, 2 teams that they dominated but ended up not covering against with ugly 4th quarter showings, we don't anticipate a repeat and foresee them finishing strong and ending the season with an exclamation mark! They held a 32 point lead over the Grizzlies only to fail to show up in the 4th quarter and survive a late scare winning by only 4 points! Coach Kerr will be demanding a solid display to wrap up what has been a historic season for this franchise! We expect a double-digit victory against the depleted Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets have little left in tank. They come into this contest against the best team in the league, shorthanded without the services of Jameer Nelson, Darrell Arthur, Randy Foye and most notably Kenneth Faried who has been a double-double machine since Melvin Hunt took over. Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari will likely play, however they are not 100%. The Warriors are fully healthy at the moment and will only be missing David Lee, who is not a starter this season. This is the deepest team in the league and has suitable backups that have made the most of their minutes when called upon. After the normally capable reserves disappointed in the last 2 games, we expect every bench player on this roster to want to impress for a chance to get playoff minutes. They have a point to prove to their demanding coach after letting big leads slip away and that isn't something we expect to see happen again. 

It's also worth mentioning that the Nuggets beat Golden State last month, something very few teams have done this season. They not only beat them, but won by double digits. That was a game in which Curry and Thompson among others were rested but the the Warriors would certainly like to end the season avenging one of their worst losses! Steve Kerr has already stated that he will play his full complement of starters. With the Splash brothers and company on the floor, we expect them to mount a big lead and show no mercy. They'll likely be looking for revenge tonight and to make one last statement. The Warriors have won 17 in a row at home and will want to put on a show as they often do for their loyal fans at Oracle Arena. It may seem like a daunting task to cover a double digit spread but they have been doing it all season long especially at this venue. Given that Golden State is not only the much more defensively sound club but also owns the more efficient offense, a double-digit victory can be expected. Barring a late backdoor cover, we don’t believe the Nuggets will be able to keep up on the scoreboard and it’s only a matter of time before they find themselves down big. This should be an impressive win and cover that ends their historic regular season in style and builds momentum heading into the playoffs. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Golden State is 12-4 ATS when seeking revenge.
  • Golden State is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points!
  • Golden State is 10-3 ATS after 3 consecutive home games!
  • Golden State is 14-5 ATS in home games when the total is 210 or higher.

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