April 14, 2015 (Posted at 6:30 PM ET)
Sports Profit System is 63-42 this NBA season having won 60% of its picks!
Take Indiana Pacers at -7 spread against Washington Wizards risking 3% of bankroll.
At this point in the season a lot of teams have very little to play for, they are either out of the playoffs completely, have their playoff seeding locked up or are simply biding their time looking to rest up and heal for the upcoming postseason. That makes the decision process that much more complex since it also requires taking specific coaching tendencies into consideration when anticipating what he might possibly do in terms of resting starters and/or limiting minutes. Given the various "off court" scenarios at play tonight, we feel that the only team that can be trusted is Indiana.
The Pacers are the only team on the card tonight that has a lot at stake. They have a lot to gain and a lot to lose based on their performance over the next two games. After Brooklyn's defeat last night, Indiana now controls its own destiny in regards to making the playoffs! If they win their remaining 2 games, they will clinch their 5th straight playoff appearance and bounce the Nets right out of contention. That is a great motivating factor for a team that is full of confidence right now. They realize that this is a must win game for them and with this also being the last home game of the season, we expect them to put in an inspired effort tonight.
The Wizards meanwhile have nothing to gain from this contest. Win or lose, their playoff seeding (5th) is set. We believe their main goal in this contest will be to simply get through it without any major injuries. It wouldn't surprise us if Randy Wittman decides at the last possible moment that he is going to rest some of his starters, in particularly John Wall. The Wizards also have their final game tomorrow night as they take on the Cleveland Cavaliers, a fellow Eastern Conference team whom they may meet at some point during the playoffs. If the Wizards find themselves down in this game, it is unlikely that they will expend the extra energy needed to mount a comeback against a much more motivated Pacers team. They will likely be content to simply accept the loss, rest their players and move on to their season finally in Cleveland.
While it may not seem like it this season, Bankers Life Fieldhouse is an incredibly tough place for visitors to play. In seasons past the Pacers used to own a huge edge at home, however injuries this season have allowed people to forget that. Indiana is getting healthy at just the right time and Paul George is being eased back into action. The Pacers are othe hottest teams in the East at the moment having won their last 5 straight and we expect them to use their home court to their advantage and show everyone how dangerous a side they can be. They are averaging 106 points over that span and shooting the 3-ball very well. There is a reason why the Pacers (current #8 seed) are significant favorites over the 5th seed tonight! The oddsmakers opened this game up at -6 and it has moved up to -7. We feel that the Pacers still exhibit value at this number, but anything more gets tricky.
With some many unknowns at this stage of the season, the one constant that remains true is that the Pacers absolutely need to win this game with their season on the line! The Pacers have also had quite a bit of success against the Wizards in the past. Prior to their win in Indiana on Nov 8th, Wizards had dropped 12 in a row at Bankers Life Fieldhouse! Indiana remembers that game and wants not only even up the series but atone for that performance. It's worth mentioning that the Wizards have been a poor road club this season. They may have a point to prove in Cleveland against the mighty Cavaliers tomorrow in their season finale but they're up against it tonight in what is a meaningless matchup for them.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Wizards are just 15-24 ATS in road games this season.
- Pacers are 13-5 ATS in home games in the second half of the season!
- Wizards are just 4-10 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent this season!
- Pacers are 18-9 ATS after a non-conference game this season.
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