April 7, 2015
Sports Profit System is 60-38 in NBA this season after the Nets covered last night!
Take OKC Thunder at +6 spread against San Antonio Spurs risking 3% of bankroll.
It's not often that we see a team as highly regarded as the Thunder as a home underdog however they have been struggling with injuries and it has caught up with them as they have dropped 3 in a row. Despite their struggles on the defensive end and their ability to close out games recently, we do believe this line has been a bit inflated which has opened up value on the home team. Let's not forget, Spurs have not been an impressive road team this season, going just 20-18 on year, but that has been forgotten because of how they have been performing recently. At this moment, their stock is at its highest point it has been this season and the oddsmakers know that! After completely dismantling arguably the league’s best team in the Golden State Warriors, they are laying more points than they likely should be. While their win over GSW was impressive, we do feel that that may leave them in a bit of a flat spot tonight, especially considering that they already blew out this same Thunder team just two weeks ago.
Not only do we feel the Spurs are in a potential letdown spot but they also find themselves in a look ahead spot as well as they have a date with the Houston Rockets tomorrow night! The Spurs find themselves 2 games back of Houston and are still in a position to catch for the top spot in the division. This will also be a home and home series so it's likely that they care a lot more about that and what they can gain from it than they do about a team they have just recently beaten and is behind them in the standings. Those two games with the Rockets could well decide not only whether they can secure home court advantage in the first round of playoffs but if they can win the Southwest Division title for the 5th consecutive year! At the moment, Rockets and Grizzlies are ahead of them in the division but just barely. This team knows that if they win those games against direct competition (head to head) they can make up ground much more and we therefore expect them to leave sufficient energy for tomorrow's important game. This will leave the door wide open for a backdoor cover if they get a big lead. If the Spurs lose focus, even for the shortest time, it makes covering this number that much more difficult against a squad that will leave it all on the floor tonight and doesn't play another game until April 10th.
OKC is desperate for wins at the moment as they are clinging onto the last playoff spot in the West by just half a game! Unlike the Spurs, they don't have a game scheduled tomorrow which means that their sole focus will be on tonight. They know that every game from here on out is a must win! They only have 5 remaining games and with 3 of them at home, they need to make the most of their limited opportunities. Let's not forget that the Thunder have a great home court advantage! This is a team that is 27-11 at home while Spurs are only 20-18 on the road! San Antonio has had their issues winning games on the highway straight up and now they not only have to win in this unfavorable scheduling spot against what should be an extremely motivated team, but they also have to cover a pretty significant spread!
We expect to see an inspired performance in front of their home crowd tonight and attempt to gain a manner of revenge from the 30+ point defeat San Antonio hung on them in the last meeting. Their motivation and drive in this contest should see them at least cover the spread if not win this game outright. Let’s not forget, OKC may have dropped their last 2 home games but they had won 20 of the previous 22 at Chesapeake Energy Arena! They will be in bounce back mode and will want to leave it all on the floor tonight, unlike the Spurs who will likely be more concerned with limiting minutes, injuries, rotation and other aspects of the game. They will not have the killer instinct that OKC will and that is likely to be the difference tonight.
Given the spread on this game, we'd be more concerned if the under-rated Brazilian, Tiago Splitter wasn't missing and that's because Steven Adams has a much better chance of dealing with Matt Bonner than Splitter. The Thunder also have big Turk Enes Kanter down low who has been an absolute force in the paint since coming to the team. San Antonio also managed to keep Russell Westbrook fairly quiet in the last meeting two weeks ago but we don't expect a repeat tonight. There is only so much a team can do to contain an athlete like Westbrook. He's been on fire lately, putting his entire team on his shoulder and has hurt the Spurs in the past and can do so again, even if it’s through assisting teammates and letting others take the open shot. While not having Kevin Durant in the lineup hurts this team, they do have other capable of getting baskets like Singler, DJ Augustin, Morrow, Waiters, Kanter and co. When Westbrook has been faced with a double team, he has been able to distribute the ball well and find the players for some open looks. If he continues to do that tonight, the Thunder should have success against the Spurs.
What this game basically comes down to is the fact that we Scott Brooks' team needs this game more! Their next game is in 3 days against Sacramento and unlike the Spurs, they have nothing to look ahead to or limit minutes for. Their sole focus will be in getting back into the win column tonight and even if they fall short of that, their efforts should see a close affair which sees them covering the spread. The fact that Spurs have won and covered 7 in a row means they are now facing inflated spreads and we’ll take advantage of that. We don’t believe Tony Parker will be able to guard Westbrook properly in this one and that could be Spurs' undoing. Oklahoma City should give 110% tonight which should ensure that even if they do fall short of the outright victory, they will do enough to keep this game within the point spread. Take the generous points with the capable underdogs.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Thunder are 6-1 ATS as home underdogs this season!
- Spurs have covered only once in their last 10 visits to Oklahoma City!
- Thunder are 36-21 ATS in home games revenging a loss over the last 3 seasons!
- Thunder are 30-17 ATS in home games after scoring +105 points over the last 2 seasons.
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