We are risking 6% of our bankroll on 2 MLB and 1 NBA bets.
#1: Take Detroit Tigers on the moneyline (-130)
against Texas Rangers risking 2% (Sanchez and Grimm must start)
We have seen this series go back and forth for
the last 2 days. The Rangers were able to absolutely light up Tiger's
Ace Justin Verlander on Thursday night and Detroit got their revenge
last night when the Rangers bats seemingly went cold. Today is the rubber
match and in this game with 2 equally potent offenses, I believe the
key to the match-up is on the mound and that edge has to go to Detroit
in this game.
The Rangers will send Justin Grimm (2-3, 4.28
ERA) who is in the midst of a 3 game losing streak with back to back poor outings. In those two defeats, Grimm has given up a combined 10 earned runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in just 10 innings of work. The Rangers will obviously be looking for a better result
from Grimm today but I am not so sure they are going to get it. Grimm
is simply not executing the way he should at the moment. In his last
start against a struggling Oakland team, Grimm had two outs and a runner
on first in the second innings but then walked the No 8 hitter on four
straight pitches then gave up an RBI single to the No. 9 hitter. Lead-off
hitter John Jaso also followed with an RBI single to center. In the
next inning Grimm then gave up back to back home runs to extend the
Oakland lead and ultimately end the game. Grimm could be in some trouble
tonight going up against one of the top 3 offenses in the league.
Detroit will start Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 2.05 ERA)
today. Next to Justin Verlander Sanchez has been the most consistent
starter for the Tigers. Sanchez will shoot for consecutive victories
after shutting down Houston 7-2 in his last start. Sanchez gave up both
runs on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 8. Striking out batters
is nothing new for Sanchez. He has stuck out 66 in just 52 innings pitched.
Last night Rick Porcello, who had been struggling was able to cool off
the Rangers bats, if that carries over today Sanchez could be in for
a big day today.
To me this looks like a pitching mismatch, especially
the way Grimm has pitched in the month of May. Both offenses are more
than capable of taking over a game but with Detroit having what I feel
is a significant edge on the mound, that's the way I lean. Take Detroit
for the win.
#2: Take Arizona Diamondbacks
at -1 spread against Miami Marlins risking 2% (McCarthy and Koehler must start)
Miami has obviously struggled in just about every
area this season. They simply can't hit, they can't pitch and they can't
defend. What that spells is a recipe for disaster and this franchise
is the epitome of a "bad team". The losses just keep piling
up this season and in most cases it is not like the Marlins have even
been somewhat competitive. Yes they will not lose each and every game
and have pulled off some surprise victories this season, but against
this Diamondbacks team that is seemingly finding it's groove and working
their way up in the NL standings, today they are simply outmatched in
The Marlins difficulties at the plate are making
life hard for the starting pitching rotation this season and the bullpen
continues to struggles as they allowed 3 more runs last night. Life
probably won't get much easier today as the Marlins send Tom Koehler
(0-1, 3.60 ERA) to the mound tonight. Koehler makes just his second start of the season after six appearances out of the bullpen. Koehler
threw the ball well in his first start however things never usually
turn out well when a team tries to take a mid relief pitcher and turn
them into a starter. They simply do not have the experience needed to
last for a long period in the game. Experience is one thing, but then
you have to factor in arm strength. Mid relievers are used to going
1 or 2 innings. Their pitching arm is just not used to throwing 80-100
pitches per outing. Fatigue sets in and thats when mistakes happen.
Against this Arizona lineup, we all saw what mistakes can do as their
bats exploded on offense last night and I expect them to tonight.
Brandon McCarthy gets the start tonight for the
D'Backs. McCarthy (0-3, 5.63 ERA) is still looking for his first win
of the season and their is no better chance for him to get it than against
the struggling Marlins. Even though McCarthy is win less this season
he is coming off his best start of the season where he went 8 innings and
gave up 0 runs on 7 hits. McCarthy will be determined to get his first win
of the season and should be able to keep a struggling Marlins offense
in check. The Arizona bats should be able to do a lot of damage in this
game as well. With Koehler being an unknown and the bullpen being just
as shaky, there is no reason to think the Diamondbacks don't win this
game convincingly. Miami has lost 6 straight games by more than 1
run and I believe tonight will make game number 7 which is why I recommend
a play at the -1 spread for reduced juice. Koehler has not pitched enough
at the major league level to say what he has so that says McCarthy should
have the edge while Arizona also gets the nod offensively.
#3: Take Indiana Pacers at
-5 spread against New York Knicks risking 2%
We had backed the Pacers the last time out thinking
that they would close out the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Ultimately
that did not happen, however looking at the final end of the game numbers,
you will see that the Knicks really did not beat the Pacers in my opinion,
the Pacers actually beat themselves.
The Pacers were the more physical team and out
rebounded the Knicks. The PAcers only shot 36% for the entire game which
was an extremely poor shooting performance from this team. The Pacers
managed to get to the free throw line, much like they have had throughout
this series and how we had thought would be the difference in the game.
It was a huge difference, as a team the Pacers managed to get to the
free throw line a total of 32 times in that game. That is 32 "free"
points in a game against a Knicks team who had been offensively challenged
these entire playoffs. The thing is that the Pacers only went 50% from the line and made 16 of those 32 free throws. That was extremely uncharacteristic of them
and had they made those shots, they would have won that game, I have
no doubt about that. The Pacer's style of play completely changes on
their home court and I fully expect that to happen tonight.
There is nothing fancy to really analyze in this
game. The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks in just about each and every
game in this series, especially out in Indiana. The Pacers have beaten
the Knicks by 9 and 11 point respectively in Indiana. The Pacers ability
to draw fouls and get to the free throw line as well as rebound the
basketball will again be the difference tonight only this time the Pacers
will not miss 16 free throws on their home court. The Knicks are simply
outmatched and have not played well on the road in this series. Indiana
will close the Knicks out tonight as there is no way they want this
series to go to 7 games and have to travel back to New York. The Pacers
physical play will wear the Knicks down and they will get the cover
late in the game. Lay the points.
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