May 18th 2013 - Posted 12:10 PM Eastern Time


We are risking 6% of our bankroll on 2 MLB and 1 NBA bets.



#1: Take Detroit Tigers on the moneyline (-130) against Texas Rangers risking 2% (Sanchez and Grimm must start)

We have seen this series go back and forth for the last 2 days. The Rangers were able to absolutely light up Tiger's Ace Justin Verlander on Thursday night and Detroit got their revenge last night when the Rangers bats seemingly went cold. Today is the rubber match and in this game with 2 equally potent offenses, I believe the key to the match-up is on the mound and that edge has to go to Detroit in this game.

The Rangers will send Justin Grimm (2-3, 4.28 ERA) who is in the midst of a 3 game losing streak with back to back poor outings. In those two defeats, Grimm has given up a combined 10 earned runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in just 10 innings of work. The Rangers will obviously be looking for a better result from Grimm today but I am not so sure they are going to get it. Grimm is simply not executing the way he should at the moment. In his last start against a struggling Oakland team, Grimm had two outs and a runner on first in the second innings but then walked the No 8 hitter on four straight pitches then gave up an RBI single to the No. 9 hitter. Lead-off hitter John Jaso also followed with an RBI single to center. In the next inning Grimm then gave up back to back home runs to extend the Oakland lead and ultimately end the game. Grimm could be in some trouble tonight going up against one of the top 3 offenses in the league.

Detroit will start Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 2.05 ERA) today. Next to Justin Verlander Sanchez has been the most consistent starter for the Tigers. Sanchez will shoot for consecutive victories after shutting down Houston 7-2 in his last start. Sanchez gave up both runs on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 8. Striking out batters is nothing new for Sanchez. He has stuck out 66 in just 52 innings pitched. Last night Rick Porcello, who had been struggling was able to cool off the Rangers bats, if that carries over today Sanchez could be in for a big day today.

To me this looks like a pitching mismatch, especially the way Grimm has pitched in the month of May. Both offenses are more than capable of taking over a game but with Detroit having what I feel is a significant edge on the mound, that's the way I lean. Take Detroit for the win.



#2: Take Arizona Diamondbacks at -1 spread against Miami Marlins risking 2% (McCarthy and Koehler must start)

Miami has obviously struggled in just about every area this season. They simply can't hit, they can't pitch and they can't defend. What that spells is a recipe for disaster and this franchise is the epitome of a "bad team". The losses just keep piling up this season and in most cases it is not like the Marlins have even been somewhat competitive. Yes they will not lose each and every game and have pulled off some surprise victories this season, but against this Diamondbacks team that is seemingly finding it's groove and working their way up in the NL standings, today they are simply outmatched in all areas.

The Marlins difficulties at the plate are making life hard for the starting pitching rotation this season and the bullpen continues to struggles as they allowed 3 more runs last night. Life probably won't get much easier today as the Marlins send Tom Koehler (0-1, 3.60 ERA) to the mound tonight. Koehler makes just his second start of the season after six appearances out of the bullpen. Koehler threw the ball well in his first start however things never usually turn out well when a team tries to take a mid relief pitcher and turn them into a starter. They simply do not have the experience needed to last for a long period in the game. Experience is one thing, but then you have to factor in arm strength. Mid relievers are used to going 1 or 2 innings. Their pitching arm is just not used to throwing 80-100 pitches per outing. Fatigue sets in and thats when mistakes happen. Against this Arizona lineup, we all saw what mistakes can do as their bats exploded on offense last night and I expect them to tonight.

Brandon McCarthy gets the start tonight for the D'Backs. McCarthy (0-3, 5.63 ERA) is still looking for his first win of the season and their is no better chance for him to get it than against the struggling Marlins. Even though McCarthy is win less this season he is coming off his best start of the season where he went 8 innings and gave up 0 runs on 7 hits. McCarthy will be determined to get his first win of the season and should be able to keep a struggling Marlins offense in check. The Arizona bats should be able to do a lot of damage in this game as well. With Koehler being an unknown and the bullpen being just as shaky, there is no reason to think the Diamondbacks don't win this game convincingly. Miami has lost 6 straight games by more than 1 run and I believe tonight will make game number 7 which is why I recommend a play at the -1 spread for reduced juice. Koehler has not pitched enough at the major league level to say what he has so that says McCarthy should have the edge while Arizona also gets the nod offensively.



#3: Take Indiana Pacers at -5 spread against New York Knicks risking 2%

We had backed the Pacers the last time out thinking that they would close out the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Ultimately that did not happen, however looking at the final end of the game numbers, you will see that the Knicks really did not beat the Pacers in my opinion, the Pacers actually beat themselves.

The Pacers were the more physical team and out rebounded the Knicks. The PAcers only shot 36% for the entire game which was an extremely poor shooting performance from this team. The Pacers managed to get to the free throw line, much like they have had throughout this series and how we had thought would be the difference in the game. It was a huge difference, as a team the Pacers managed to get to the free throw line a total of 32 times in that game. That is 32 "free" points in a game against a Knicks team who had been offensively challenged these entire playoffs. The thing is that the Pacers only went 50% from the line and made 16 of those 32 free throws. That was extremely uncharacteristic of them and had they made those shots, they would have won that game, I have no doubt about that. The Pacer's style of play completely changes on their home court and I fully expect that to happen tonight.

There is nothing fancy to really analyze in this game. The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks in just about each and every game in this series, especially out in Indiana. The Pacers have beaten the Knicks by 9 and 11 point respectively in Indiana. The Pacers ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line as well as rebound the basketball will again be the difference tonight only this time the Pacers will not miss 16 free throws on their home court. The Knicks are simply outmatched and have not played well on the road in this series. Indiana will close the Knicks out tonight as there is no way they want this series to go to 7 games and have to travel back to New York. The Pacers physical play will wear the Knicks down and they will get the cover late in the game. Lay the points.



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