May 15th 2013 - Posted 4:45 PM Eastern Time


There are two MLB and one NBA suggestion risking a total of 6%



#1: Take Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline (+110) against Pittsburgh Pirates risking 2% (Gallardo and Rodriguez must start)

The Brewers looked to be in good shape to get a win last night but they let it get away from them late in the game and took the loss in extra innings thanks to a walk off home run by Andrew McCutchen. Even though Milwaukee ultimately took the loss in that game, they did have a some what productive game with Jean Segura hitting his seventh home run, and both Ryan Braun and Norichika Aoki had three hits a piece. The Brewers were connecting with the ball as they had 11 total hits for the game, they simply did not string together any kind of consistency as they only scored 3 total runs.

For tonights game Milwaukee starts Yovani Gallardo who has won three of his last four decisions. Gallardo has been pitching extremely well recently and is no doubt Milwaukee's most consistent pitcher this season. Gallardo has also thrived against the Pirates in the past as he is 10-1 lifetime against the Pirates. When he starts against Pittsburgh, his team is 14-1 lifetime against them. Those are some impressive numbers. I don't recall any pitcher or team that has been so dominant against another in the past. Gallardo always seems to show up and baffle the Pittsburgh batters. He has already done so once this season back on April 29th where he went 7 innings giving up only 3 hits (1 earned ). Milwaukee won that game 10-4. Gallardo simply does not lose a lot and Milwaukee has supported him as they are 21-8 in his last 29 starts.

Even though Pirates starter Wandy Rodriguez has pitched well this season, especially at home, it is extremely hard to ignore the amount of success that Gallardo has had against the Pirates. With Milwaukee letting one slip away last night, I expect them to come back in this game focused and ready to play. There is good value backing them and more importantly Gallardo as the underdogs. Take the Brewers



#2: Take the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox to go OVER the posted total of 7 runs risking 2% (Lester and Price must start)

This is a classic situation where we have two of the better pitchers in the league squaring off against each other and the lines-makers are assuming that because of this it will turn into a pitcher's duel and have adjusted the lines accordingly. I believe that is a mistake tonight. Both Tampa Bay and the Red Sox are teams that are more than capable of "going off" on offense. At almost every spot in their line-ups they have the ability to send the ball out of the ballpark. Boston is a home run hitting team and Tampa is well versed in getting runners on base, that always makes for a dangerous combination. Both Lester and Price have pitched well this season but both are more than capable of having an off night here and there. Jon Lester was just tagged for 5 and 3 earned runs in his last starts on the road, while David Price has struggled in his home contests this season with an ERA of exactly 5.00 in 4 games.

The Tampa Bay Rays have also been on quite an "Over" trend as of late. They are 22-11 to the Over on the year, 11-1 in the month of May alone and 16-6 in games played at night. The Red Sox are 20-18 to the Over on the year, 5-2 on games played on turf, and 6-0 to the Over on games played on Wednesday. I think this total is set just a bit too low for two teams whose offensive have the ability to explode and cover the number themselves. This will probably be a well pitched game by both pitchers, but the value in this game is that the total goes over.



#3: Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -4 spread against Memphis Grizzlies risking 2% (Purchase the hook if available)

We have successfully backed Memphis numerous times in the playoffs this year. Memphis is an extremely well rounded team given and have been extremely generous to bettors who have backed them in the playoffs this season given their near perfect record ATS, however there are certain spots where trends and past performances need to be ignored just a bit and things need to be looked at from a motivational standpoint. Tonight is one of those nights.

There is no doubt about it, Oklahoma City needs to win tonight in order to extend their season. Their backs are against the wall, their feet are to the fire, there is no second chances. This is do or die for them. In order for Oklahoma City to prolong this series they are going to have to get some help for Kevin Durant tonight. We have seen glimpses of players start to step up and fill in that role, only for it to be short-lived. Oklahoma City came out firing last game only to have a late game collapse and allow Memphis to basically steal that game. Offensive struggles are nothing new to this team since the loss of Russell Westbrook.

Tonight the Thunder will need to rely on its defense, which is far better than it sometimes appears to be. The Thunder actually ranked second in the league in field goal percentage allowed (42.5 percent) this season and they have given Memphis offensive fits as well. Most of it has been hidden given Memphis' stellar defense themselves and typically low scoring games. Oklahoma City is, no doubt, more aware than most of its current offensive issues, which means the team also knows defense is the key to extending this series. The games in this series have been close throughout and it is not like Oklahoma City has been getting completely blown out in these games. Tonight on their home court you can look for Oklahoma City to get behind their home crowd and play with a sense of urgency and turn up not only the offense but their defensive intensity. Look for the Thunder to not only win this game but cover the spread in the process as they extend the series back to Memphis.



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