There are 2 NBA and 1 MLB bets
today. The baseball game is a 1% minimum bet.
#1: Take Memphis Grizzlies at -5 spread against
Oklahoma City Thunder risking 2%
The Thunder should consider themselves lucky to not be down 0-2 in
this series despite having played the first two games at home. In Game
1, Memphis was in control throughout but OKC narrowly escaped with a
win on their home floor thanks to the final 2 minutes while Memphis
came back in Game 2 and completely dominated the Thunder! The Grizzlies
managed to control the offensive glass, grabbing twice as many offensive
rebounds as the Thunder and only turned the ball over 10 times, compared
to nearly double (19) for the Thunder. The loss of Russell Westbrook
is starting to show for the Thunder and the team has yet to find a player
who has been able to step up and take the place of Westbrook. Kevin Durant has
been literally a 1 man show for this Thunder team but there is only
so much Durant can do on his own. Memphis is a complete team and their style of play has proven to
be a nightmare for Oklahoma City. With this series heading back to Memphis
for Games 3 and 4, the Thunder could find themselves in a bit of trouble
if they can not find other scoring options and help for Durant.
Memphis was able to completely shut down a high powered LA Clippers
offense on their home court and I believe the same thing happens today.
Even on the road the Grizzlies completely outplayed the Thunder on both
the offensive and defensive side of the basketball. With the Thunder
now heading to Memphis, I believe their scoring struggles will continue
and to top it off coach Scott Brooks admitted that Memphis' offense
which has averaged 105 points at home (much better than away) does worry
him. Unlike OKC, Memphis does have its star pointguard Mike Conley and
he has been absolutely terrific in the Play-offs so far!
Memphis has been one of the better home teams this season and their
defense and rebounding edge is going to be the difference in this game. The Grizzlies have
won three straight on their home court in the playoffs now and are 17-1
going back to Feb 8th! The Grizzlies' big men and in particular Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph
have gotten the better of OKC's big men Ibaka and Perkins so far and
I wouldn't expect tonight to be any different.
It's worth mentioning that the Grizzlies took 2 of the 3 regular season
meetings between the two teams and that was against a Thunder team featuring
Russell Westbrook! Memphis is an impressive 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of up to 6 points
this season and while it may be
enticing to take Oklahoma City getting points, this is simply not the
same Oklahoma City team without all-star Russell Westbrook. The Grizzlies
have shown their ability to score off a lackluster OKC defense and OKC
has yet to match the physicality of the Grizzlies. Just as with the
series against the Clippers, Memphis seems to get better the longer
this series goes on. They are a team that always makes the correct adjustments
and forces teams to play their style of basketball. Today's game is
a bad match-up for the Thunder and I recommend laying the 5 points with
#2: Take Indiana Pacers at -4 spread against New
York Knicks risking 2%
With the series tied at 1 a piece, the Knicks and Pacers head into
Indiana for Games 3 and 4 of this series. The reality of this situation
is that the Pacers were able to go to New York and get a valuable Game
1 road win where they were in control throughout. In Game 2, New York
regrouped and completely shutdown and embarrassed the Pacers. We have
seen this before in the Atlanta series, the Pacers struggled on the
road in that series as well but the fact remains that this Pacers team
is a completely different team on their home floor. New York was able
to get pressure on the Pacers front-court and that caused their guards
to make an unsual amount of turnovers. That was basically the difference in the game. On their home court
they should be able to correct and limit their mistakes and I'm not
sure the Knicks will be able to use that same strategy again. Indiana
is an incredibly efficient team on their home court. Going back to the
series with the Hawks, the Pacers won convincingly in front of their
home town fans completely shutting down the Hawks offense. I believe
they will do the same to this Knicks team.
The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double
digit loss and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The fact remains
that other than last game the Knicks have really struggled scoring and
shooting the basketball. Their "go-to" players have simply
not been able to make the shots on a consistent basis. JR Smith has
struggled all series going just 13 of 57 and has not shown his full
ability in the playoffs as he did in the regular season. He's actually
doubtful for tonight's game due to high fever and may or may not play
but even if he does, he's unlikely to be at his best.
The Knicks used a 30-2 run in the second half to pretty much seal
the deal for Indiana in Game 2 and I just don't believe that is going
to happen here on the road. Indiana is a physical team and in the comforts
of their home arena they will shutdown and frustrate just about anyone.
The Knicks are a jump shooting team that thrives on their shots falling,
when they don't it turns into empty possession after empty possession
allowing the other team to run up the score. Frank Vogel's team tend to respond very well to embarassing road losses
when back at home the next game and I would expect tonight to be another example of that. Pacers are
a perfect 6-0 ATS when back at home after allowing 100 points or more
in a road loss this season.
The Pacers will clean up their act from Game 2 and take back control
of this series this afternoon. Let's not forget that NY had its struggles in Indiana in the regular
season dropping both games; once losing by 5 points while the other
was an absolute blow-out losing 91-125! While I don't expect Knicks to be humiliated today, I do expect Pacers
to ultimately stamp their authority on this game and take a 2-1 lead.
Lay the 4 points buying half a point if you need to.
#3: Take Baltimore Orioles on the Money Line (-110) against Minnesota
Twins risking 1% (Johnson and Worley must start)
The Baltimore Orioles looked almost like certain
losers last night before rallying back to grab a 9-6 win over the Twins
in extra innings and stopping their 3 game wininng streak. This is simply a team that is never out of a ball game. They are a team where even when they are down in a game, they never
consider losing an option. A lot of teams would fold, but Baltimore
buckled down and put forth a good performance behind the plate even
though their starting pitcher struggled and not for the first time this
season. With a win last night, the Orioles are now 5-1 in their last 6 games and
have won 8 of 12 on the road!
Vance Worley gets the start for Minnesota today and he's still searching for his first win of the season! Worley is is 0-4 with a 7.75 ERA in seven starts this season! The Twins were on a roll after getting the better of Red Sox in their last series but the extra inning loss to Orioles will have hurt them mentally and is likely to carry over into tonight's performance.
The price is right for a small bet on a good away team like Baltimore
Baltimore is getting good value today and there
are a lot of trends backing this.
- Baltimore is
13-6 in road games in May over the last 2 seasons.
- Baltimore is
17-9 against right-handed starters this season.
- Baltimore is
61-45 in road games over the last 2 seasons.
- Baltimore is 48-31 against right handed starters on the road over
last 2 seasons.
- The Twins are only 46-75 against right-handed starters over the last
- The Twins are 37-70 after a loss over the last 3 seasons!
- The Twins are 12-32 in home games when playing against a team with
a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
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