May 11th 2013 - Posted 03:00 PM Eastern Time


There are 2 NBA and 1 MLB bets today. The baseball game is a 1% minimum bet.



#1: Take Memphis Grizzlies at -5 spread against Oklahoma City Thunder risking 2%

The Thunder should consider themselves lucky to not be down 0-2 in this series despite having played the first two games at home. In Game 1, Memphis was in control throughout but OKC narrowly escaped with a win on their home floor thanks to the final 2 minutes while Memphis came back in Game 2 and completely dominated the Thunder! The Grizzlies managed to control the offensive glass, grabbing twice as many offensive rebounds as the Thunder and only turned the ball over 10 times, compared to nearly double (19) for the Thunder. The loss of Russell Westbrook is starting to show for the Thunder and the team has yet to find a player who has been able to step up and take the place of Westbrook. Kevin Durant has been literally a 1 man show for this Thunder team but there is only so much Durant can do on his own. Memphis is a complete team and their style of play has proven to be a nightmare for Oklahoma City. With this series heading back to Memphis for Games 3 and 4, the Thunder could find themselves in a bit of trouble if they can not find other scoring options and help for Durant.

Memphis was able to completely shut down a high powered LA Clippers offense on their home court and I believe the same thing happens today. Even on the road the Grizzlies completely outplayed the Thunder on both the offensive and defensive side of the basketball. With the Thunder now heading to Memphis, I believe their scoring struggles will continue and to top it off coach Scott Brooks admitted that Memphis' offense which has averaged 105 points at home (much better than away) does worry him. Unlike OKC, Memphis does have its star pointguard Mike Conley and he has been absolutely terrific in the Play-offs so far!

Memphis has been one of the better home teams this season and their defense and rebounding edge is going to be the difference in this game. The Grizzlies have won three straight on their home court in the playoffs now and are 17-1 going back to Feb 8th! The Grizzlies' big men and in particular Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have gotten the better of OKC's big men Ibaka and Perkins so far and I wouldn't expect tonight to be any different.

It's worth mentioning that the Grizzlies took 2 of the 3 regular season meetings between the two teams and that was against a Thunder team featuring Russell Westbrook! Memphis is an impressive 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of up to 6 points this season and while it may be enticing to take Oklahoma City getting points, this is simply not the same Oklahoma City team without all-star Russell Westbrook. The Grizzlies have shown their ability to score off a lackluster OKC defense and OKC has yet to match the physicality of the Grizzlies. Just as with the series against the Clippers, Memphis seems to get better the longer this series goes on. They are a team that always makes the correct adjustments and forces teams to play their style of basketball. Today's game is a bad match-up for the Thunder and I recommend laying the 5 points with Memphis.



#2: Take Indiana Pacers at -4 spread against New York Knicks risking 2%

With the series tied at 1 a piece, the Knicks and Pacers head into Indiana for Games 3 and 4 of this series. The reality of this situation is that the Pacers were able to go to New York and get a valuable Game 1 road win where they were in control throughout. In Game 2, New York regrouped and completely shutdown and embarrassed the Pacers. We have seen this before in the Atlanta series, the Pacers struggled on the road in that series as well but the fact remains that this Pacers team is a completely different team on their home floor. New York was able to get pressure on the Pacers front-court and that caused their guards to make an unsual amount of turnovers. That was basically the difference in the game. On their home court they should be able to correct and limit their mistakes and I'm not sure the Knicks will be able to use that same strategy again. Indiana is an incredibly efficient team on their home court. Going back to the series with the Hawks, the Pacers won convincingly in front of their home town fans completely shutting down the Hawks offense. I believe they will do the same to this Knicks team.

The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double digit loss and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The fact remains that other than last game the Knicks have really struggled scoring and shooting the basketball. Their "go-to" players have simply not been able to make the shots on a consistent basis. JR Smith has struggled all series going just 13 of 57 and has not shown his full ability in the playoffs as he did in the regular season. He's actually doubtful for tonight's game due to high fever and may or may not play but even if he does, he's unlikely to be at his best.

The Knicks used a 30-2 run in the second half to pretty much seal the deal for Indiana in Game 2 and I just don't believe that is going to happen here on the road. Indiana is a physical team and in the comforts of their home arena they will shutdown and frustrate just about anyone. The Knicks are a jump shooting team that thrives on their shots falling, when they don't it turns into empty possession after empty possession allowing the other team to run up the score. Frank Vogel's team tend to respond very well to embarassing road losses when back at home the next game and I would expect tonight to be another example of that. Pacers are a perfect 6-0 ATS when back at home after allowing 100 points or more in a road loss this season.

The Pacers will clean up their act from Game 2 and take back control of this series this afternoon. Let's not forget that NY had its struggles in Indiana in the regular season dropping both games; once losing by 5 points while the other was an absolute blow-out losing 91-125! While I don't expect Knicks to be humiliated today, I do expect Pacers to ultimately stamp their authority on this game and take a 2-1 lead. Lay the 4 points buying half a point if you need to.




#3: Take Baltimore Orioles on the Money Line (-110) against Minnesota Twins risking 1% (Johnson and Worley must start)

The Baltimore Orioles looked almost like certain losers last night before rallying back to grab a 9-6 win over the Twins in extra innings and stopping their 3 game wininng streak. This is simply a team that is never out of a ball game. They are a team where even when they are down in a game, they never consider losing an option. A lot of teams would fold, but Baltimore buckled down and put forth a good performance behind the plate even though their starting pitcher struggled and not for the first time this season. With a win last night, the Orioles are now 5-1 in their last 6 games and have won 8 of 12 on the road!

Vance Worley gets the start for Minnesota today and he's still searching for his first win of the season! Worley is is 0-4 with a 7.75 ERA in seven starts this season! The Twins were on a roll after getting the better of Red Sox in their last series but the extra inning loss to Orioles will have hurt them mentally and is likely to carry over into tonight's performance.

The price is right for a small bet on a good away team like Baltimore tonight.

Baltimore is getting good value today and there are a lot of trends backing this.

  • Baltimore is 13-6 in road games in May over the last 2 seasons.
  • Baltimore is 17-9 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Baltimore is 61-45 in road games over the last 2 seasons.
  • Baltimore is 48-31 against right handed starters on the road over last 2 seasons.
  • The Twins are only 46-75 against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons!
  • The Twins are 37-70 after a loss over the last 3 seasons!
  • The Twins are 12-32 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


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