March 8th 2013 - Posted 5:52 PM Eastern Time
The UTSA vs. San Jose State game was cancelled last night while we won the other two bets to make it 3 winning nights in a row.
Tonight we have two average size 3 unit plays and one below average 2 unit play on Wizards risking a total of 8% from our bankroll.
#1: Take Charlotte Bobcats at +15 spread against Oklahoma City Thunder risking 3 Units
Backing the Bobcats in almost any situation this season is a tough thing to do...I'm not going to sugar coat this and try to make everyone think that the Bobcats are a better team than the Thunder and are going to win this game, what I am going to tell everyone is that there is value on the Bobcats tonight because they are catching the Thunder in a vulnerable spot.
The Thunder are on the second half of a back-to-back where last night the Knicks came within 1 point of defeating the Thunder without the help of Carmelo Anthony. The Thunder are a dominant team, that is true. They have the ability to pile on the points at a moments notice, however they have not been playing that solidly on the road recently. The Thunder have won three straight overall but are only 2-3 (1-4 ATS) in their last five road games - with the margin of victory being four points or fewer in the past four. Now I am not saying that Charlotte is going to come right out and beat the Thunder tonight although believe it or not the Bobcats have a 4-3 record both SU and ATS against the Thunder in Charlotte. The Thunder have big games coming up against the Celtics and the Spurs on Sunday and Monday so they will more than likely not be taking the Bobcats very seriously tonight and will simply be looking for a win rather than a blow-out.
14.5 points is a lot of points to lay in a game, never-mind when playing on the road. Blowouts happen all the time in this league, however when the lines have been set purposely at 14 points and above there has been only about a 20% success rate for the favorite covering this season alone and the majority of those wins were by a team that was playing at home.
Oklahoma City is just 11-11 ATS on the road this season. They have never been asked to cover a spread of more than 12.5 points on the road. This will be there first time ever beeing listed as this big a favorite on the road. There are just so many things that can go wrong in a game like this. Orlando nearly upset Miami the other night and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bobcats catch the Thunder napping tonight. Oklahoma City pulls out the win, but the Cats keep it closer than Vegas thinks they will.
Charlotte has been embarassed not only in most of their recent games but also in the last few meetings against OKC. Tonight, they will be motivated to put on a good performance at home to regain a bit of pride and should do enough at home to avoid a blowout. Even if Thunder are dominating as they are likely to, with the spread set this high, there's always the chance of a backdoor cover for us as the leading team starts resting its players and taking it easier in the final minutes with the W all but guaranteed. Take the points.
#2: Take Washington Wizards at +6 spread against Brooklyn Nets risking 2 Units
These two teams have already split the season series 1 a piece and tonight is the rubber match. While it's true that Washington isn't a team that wins many games, they are a team that has the ability to keep games close, even on the road. The Wizards are 37-16 ATS when slated in the role of an underdog (which is where they have spent a majority of the season). Tonight the Wizards will be at a disadvantage with leading scorer Bradley Beal on the sidelines, however this is the type of match-up that with or without Beal in the lineup, favors Washington. Washington has gone 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings with the Nets, including 2-0 ATS this season. The Nets are not simply a team that blows a lot of other teams out. They have a talented roster but that does not necessarily turn into points. The Nets win a majority of their games on the defensive end. While it's nice to play solid defense, if the team can not put points on the board after making those defensive stops, they are actually allowing a team to "hang around" in a game which may seem a lot more one sided than the scoreboard indicates.
Although Washington does not have an impressive win-loss record, they are not a terrible team. They are young and they are athletic, which believe it or not goes a long way in this league. Washington's main problems over their last 4 games have been the amount of turnovers committed by both Nene and John Wall. If Washington can cut down on the turnovers, they can keep pace on offense with any team in the league. Both teams have been struggling as of late so there really is no decisive edge when it comes to momentum coming in. The Nets have the advantage with the game being on their home court, but it would be a mistake to count this Washington team out of a game, especially when they have beaten the Nets once already. I think the Nets ultimately pull this game out, but 6 points is just too much to lay given the Wizards ATS success against the Nets. Take the points
Some Trends to consider:
Washington is 17-5 ATS after playing a non conference game
Washington is 20-8 ATS when playing a team with a winning record
Brooklyn is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5-6 points
Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent
Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games
#3: Take Houston Rockets at +2 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 3 Units
What this game boils down to is that neither of these teams play any kind of defense. I have been correct with my prediction in this matchup the last two times these teams have faced off and tonight we will hopefully get winning bet #3 as well. Golden State is a team much like Houston in that they feel that in order to win games, that they simply must do it on the offensive side and not care about what happens on defense. "The best defense is a great offense mentality" These teams have combined for some of the top scoring games this season and I expect the same to happen again tonight.
Golden State snapped out of a 4 game losing streak on the road by coming home and rattling off 2 straight wins. The issue that I have with those wins are that they came against Sacramento and Toronto; two teams who have been struggling and Golden State needed a late game rally in order to beat both those teams. They can not afford to do that against Houston. Not many teams can keep pace with the Rockets and that is going to be the Warriors undoing tonight. They do not have the defense to stop James Harden and Jeremy Lin from doing whatever they want with the ball nor do they have the offense to keep pace shot for shot with Houston. This game will be back and forth for a while and I am sure the home crowd will put some motivation behind Golden State, it is only a matter of time before the Rockets start to pull away and grab the outright win. Take the points.
Please note that once your membership expires you will be unable to log in to the Members Area! You can renew or upgrade your membership before it runs out to ensure you don't miss out on any picks. Your new subscription will of course only start once your current one expires.
Click Here To Renew Or Upgrade Your Membership
Please refer to the all-important SPS Bankroll System instructions received upon joining.