EDIT (6:30 PM): News broke out at 6 PM (only one hour before the game)
that Nene is out for Washington and is unlikely to feature in this game.
That's a big reason the line has now moved all the way up to +5 even now
in some cases all the way from +3 which is what we got it at.
Obviously with Nene out, we are less confident in this pick but we still
believe Washington can have a good night for all of the aforementioned
reasons and possibly even win this game outright.
Since we have already released this pick as a 4-unit play and have placed
our own wagers, we won't change the official 'grading'. But obviously,
those who placed the bets later than we did have benefited by placing this
bet at a better line (like +4 , +4.5 and even +5 now in some places like
We are risking 4% of our bankroll on Washington tonight as we see plenty of reasons
to back them. These facts and figures don't necessarily mean this will
be a winning bet as there is no such thing as 'guaranteed' or 'lock'
in this world, let alone in the world of gambling where anything can
happen but the essay-like rationale that follows does showcase why we
feel they are likely to succeed tonight.
Take Washington Wizards at +3 spread against Memphis
Grizzlies risking 4 Units (7:05 PM)
At first glance you have a 44-22 Memphis Grizzlies team matching up
against a 25-44 Washington Wizards team and looking at just the records
alone it would appear that Memphis is the overall better team and that
is correct. However the outcome of a single basketball game often has little to do with overall records and more
to do with particular situations on that given day/night. Once both teams are on the court and the ball is tipped in the air,
it is an even playing field to start out.
Much like the Houston vs San Antonio game last
night, we have a line that is suspiciously low given both the disparity
in the overall records as well as the recent success that one team has
had over another. Memphis was able to capture an 85-76 win against the
Wizards back on February 1st in Memphis but this game is being played in Washington and
I believe that is going to be a big factor in today's game. Grizzlies' big man Marc Gasol is going to be out for tonight's game
and that is really going to hurt the inside presence of Memphis as Gasol
has been absolutely dominant recently!
Gasol accounts for an average of 15 points per
game, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks. Those kind of number will be sorely missed,
especially on the road where Memphis have had their struggles. Washington has some young and explosive players like John Wall who
can penetrate into the lane and push the basketball to the hoop. Without
Gasol in the middle to clog up the lane, it could provide an opening
for Washington to consistently get to the rim. The loss of Gasol is
also going to hurt the Grizzlies rebounding game. The Wizards are not
an elite rebounding team to begin with but without their 7 foot star
giant, that should give Washington more of an opportunity. The last
time these two teams met, Gasol was able to bring down 15 rebounds in
a game and that was a decisive factor.
I'm not basing this entire pick on the absence
of Gasol as the loss of one player should never make or break a certain
team but it certainly does weaken this Grizzlies team. Washington just
so happens to be a tough place to play especially for a team like Memphis
who relies mostly on their lock-down defense and not an explosive offensive
game. The Grizzlies are only averaging 91 points a game against a Wizards
team who have won 5 of their last 7 games and are scoring 101 points
per game in the process. Washington has won 5 of their last 6 home games
and lost only 4 out of their last 19 in the capital!
Memphis, for as good of a team as they are have
struggled on the road lately. They have lost their last 3 road games and have
failed to score 85 points in each. The Gizzlies are also just 2-4 ATS
in their last 6 games. The road is going to be too much today for a
team missing its arguably most important player against a team that
plays very well at home. I believe Washington pulls the upset today
and gets revenge on the Grizzlies. Take the points.
A few other reasons we believe The Wizards are likely to be a winning
- Washington is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home
- Washington is 34-18 ATS in the underdog role
this season and thrives under it!
- Washington is 22-10 ATS when playing against
teams with winning records.
- Washington is 21-7 ATS in non-conference games!
- The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings
between these two teams.
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