#1: Take Orlando Magic at +11 spread against Indiana
Pacers risking 3 Units. (7:05 PM)
Even though Orlando have been a very poor team
this season, they have been somewhat underrated recently given the fact
that they are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games for bettors backing
Those five covers include a win at New Orleans (105-102) as a 9-point
dog, a home win over Philadelphia (99-91) as a 1-point dog, a 96-97
(OT) loss at Miami as a 15 point dog, a 104-117 loss at Oklahoma City
as a 17.5-point dog, and a 109-115 loss at Milwaukee as a 9-point dog
where they blew a 13-point lead in the 4th quarter! As you can see, when the Magic are getting
double-digits (or close to that) they have been competitive even when
losing the games and have had little trouble covering the spread.
Orlando have been very competitive against some of the top teams in
the league. One of those 2 non-covers during that stretch did come at
the hands of the Pacers at home however in an 86-115 loss on March 8th
less than two weeks ago. That loss places the Magic in revenge mode tonight wanting payback for such an embarrassing defeat.
Indiana themselves are in a tough spot tonight. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back
and its 4th game in 5 days! They defeated Cleveland easily last night
but I believe the Pacers will also have a hard time getting motivated
to blow out a lowly Magic team they dominated just 10 days ago.
If motivation wasn't enough, David West missed last night's game and
he's questionable to start tonight. So there's a good chance they'll
be short-handed, which doesn't bode well for the fatigue they'll be
feeling from playing 4 days in 5 days! West is their second-leading scorer and rebounder.
His presence could be sorely missed tonight and if he does play, he's
unlikely to be 100% which will diminish his performance level.
Some more trends to consider:
- Orlando is 20-11 ATS as an underdog this
- Orlando is also 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road
- Orlando is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after
allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games
vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Indiana is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
following a SU win.
- Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games
following a SU win of more than 10 points.
- Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following
a ATS win.
#2: Take Middle Tennessee
State at +3 spread against Saint Mary's Gaels risking 3 Units. (9:10
I am personally excited for this match up as
I feel it will be one of the "better" games played tonight
between two teams that really deserved to get into the NCAA Tournament
this year. This is a last 4 in game where whatever team wins this game
is in the tournament. St Marys has been in situations like this in the
past and while they are a good team this season, I have just not been
When a team shoots the 3 as well as St Mary's
does, they are a hard team to beat but St Mary's has made a living out
of beating up on some of the weaker teams in the league. It's easy to
hit shots and rack up points against teams like Portland or Santa Clara
but when it comes to playing a team of their level or above, they simply
can not hang. We have seen that in their 3 games (3 losses) against
Gonzaga this season and I believe we see that again tonight. Other than
Gonzaga, St Mary's has not faced a team like this years' Blue Raiders.
The Blue Raiders will be coming into this game
with a chip on their shoulders as they are out to prove that they can
be the next big thing in college basketball and deserve to be in this
tournament. Middle Tennessee State had a Top 30 RPI for
much of this year for good reasons and it is going to love this chance
to avenge that loss that it suffered to Florida International in the
Sun Belt Tournament. This is a team that is going to sub and roatate
frequently to keep fresh legs on the court and there are many players
for the Blue Raiders who can shoot the basketball. The one shooter from St. Mary's that Mid Tennessee
needs to worry about is Dellavedova.
MTSU has won 55 games over the last two seasons
and tonight is perhaps the biggest game in school history. Middle Tennessee
will come in ready and should win this game outright. Take the points.
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