#1: Take Boston Celtics at +5.5 spread against
Miami Heat risking 3 Units
There's really no doubt that the Miami Heat have been a runaway train
as of late. They have been running over anything that has gotten in
their way and they have made it look somewhat easy in the process.
The Heat will be playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight
and while it seems that they are on a mission as of late, the schedule
is simply bound to catch up with them. The Celtics are a team that are
much improved from the beginning of the season and since Rajon Rondo
went down with a season-ending injury, have looked even better!
The Celtics at home in the Garden are an incredibly hard team to beat.
Just ask the Miami Heat; Boston has won the last 10 regular season games against the Heat at
the Garden. The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and match-ups with
the Heat always bring out a playoff type atmosphere. These two teams
historically have played close games in the past and I don't expect
this game to be much different.
This game lined up in a similar situation back on January 27 where
were slated as 5 point favorites coming into Boston. The Heat ultimately
lost that game 98-100 in the game where the Celtics found out they would be without Rondo
for the rest of the season. The Celtics have been quite vocal this last
week about how much they are looking forward to this game. They will
be up for it and give a maximum effort!
Earlier this season, I accurately predicted that the Thunder and Clippers'
winning streak would come to an end on the road against Minnessota and
Denver and today I think Miami Heat's streak could end as well. Even
if the Heat do manage to win this game, I expect it to be a close battle
and possibly come down to the last possession. Take the points with
Some trends to consider:
Boston is 8-2 both SU and ATS against the Heat in Boston over the
last 3 seasons
Boston is 10-1 ATS at home in the last 11 games
#2: Take Denver Nuggets at -3.5 spread against
Chicago Bulls risking 2 Units
What this game basically comes down to is the fact that the Denver
Nuggets have one of the most dynamic and explosive offenses in the entire
league. The Nuggets, even away from home average 100 points a game which forces teams
to simply keep pace and go score for score with Denver in order to beat
them. Many teams just can not do that and that includes the Chicago
The Bulls even through all of the injuries still have a quality team.
They are a team however that relies on hustle and defense in order to
keep them in a majority of their games. They are not an offensively
explosive team and appear to want to simply keep games close and win
at the end with sheer desire and defense rather than outscoring their
opponents. The Bulls rely on a strong rebounding effort from both Carlos
Boozer and Joakim Noah, tonight however they will have a tougher time
with that as the Nuggets rank in the top 3 teams in the league when it comes to rebounding.
Denver is an exceptionally deep team and can rotate players in an out without having to sacrifice offense. The Bulls just simply
can not do that to the same extent.
We have also seen that the Bulls have often times struggled on offense
without Derrick Rose. There has been many inconsistencies and just last
week in Sacramento the Bulls suffered their worst defeat of the entire
decade losing by almost 40 points to the Kings!
They only had 79 points by the end of the 4th and that is only because
the Kings "called the dogs" off pretty much in the third quarter.
The Bulls simply can not have an offensive slump tonight while facing
the Nuggets. If they do they will not be able to catch up.
Denver blew out Chicago 128-96 in their last meeting on February 7th.
Chicago will more than likely put up a valiant effort tonight but
the Nuggets' offense is likely to be too much for them. This is a small
spread to ask Denver to cover and I think they do it fairly easily as
they look to extend their win streak to 12 games!
Some trends to consider:
Denver is 3-0-1 in its last 4 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against a team with a winning
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 against a team with a +.600 team
Please refer to the all-important SPS Bankroll System instructions received upon joining.