March 18th 2013 - Posted 5:50 PM Eastern Time

#1: Take Boston Celtics at +5.5 spread against Miami Heat risking 3 Units

There's really no doubt that the Miami Heat have been a runaway train as of late. They have been running over anything that has gotten in their way and they have made it look somewhat easy in the process.

The Heat will be playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight and while it seems that they are on a mission as of late, the schedule is simply bound to catch up with them. The Celtics are a team that are much improved from the beginning of the season and since Rajon Rondo went down with a season-ending injury, have looked even better!

The Celtics at home in the Garden are an incredibly hard team to beat. Just ask the Miami Heat; Boston has won the last 10 regular season games against the Heat at the Garden. The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and match-ups with the Heat always bring out a playoff type atmosphere. These two teams historically have played close games in the past and I don't expect this game to be much different.

This game lined up in a similar situation back on January 27 where the Heat were slated as 5 point favorites coming into Boston. The Heat ultimately lost that game 98-100 in the game where the Celtics found out they would be without Rondo for the rest of the season. The Celtics have been quite vocal this last week about how much they are looking forward to this game. They will be up for it and give a maximum effort!

Earlier this season, I accurately predicted that the Thunder and Clippers' winning streak would come to an end on the road against Minnessota and Denver and today I think Miami Heat's streak could end as well. Even if the Heat do manage to win this game, I expect it to be a close battle and possibly come down to the last possession. Take the points with Boston today.

Some trends to consider:

Boston is 8-2 both SU and ATS against the Heat in Boston over the last 3 seasons

Boston is 10-1 ATS at home in the last 11 games

#2: Take Denver Nuggets at -3.5 spread against Chicago Bulls risking 2 Units

What this game basically comes down to is the fact that the Denver Nuggets have one of the most dynamic and explosive offenses in the entire league. The Nuggets, even away from home average 100 points a game which forces teams to simply keep pace and go score for score with Denver in order to beat them. Many teams just can not do that and that includes the Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls even through all of the injuries still have a quality team. They are a team however that relies on hustle and defense in order to keep them in a majority of their games. They are not an offensively explosive team and appear to want to simply keep games close and win at the end with sheer desire and defense rather than outscoring their opponents. The Bulls rely on a strong rebounding effort from both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, tonight however they will have a tougher time with that as the Nuggets rank in the top 3 teams in the league when it comes to rebounding.

Denver is an exceptionally deep team and can rotate players in an out without having to sacrifice offense. The Bulls just simply can not do that to the same extent.

We have also seen that the Bulls have often times struggled on offense without Derrick Rose. There has been many inconsistencies and just last week in Sacramento the Bulls suffered their worst defeat of the entire decade losing by almost 40 points to the Kings!
They only had 79 points by the end of the 4th and that is only because the Kings "called the dogs" off pretty much in the third quarter. The Bulls simply can not have an offensive slump tonight while facing the Nuggets. If they do they will not be able to catch up.

Denver blew out Chicago 128-96 in their last meeting on February 7th.

Chicago will more than likely put up a valiant effort tonight but the Nuggets' offense is likely to be too much for them. This is a small spread to ask Denver to cover and I think they do it fairly easily as they look to extend their win streak to 12 games!

Some trends to consider:

Denver is 3-0-1 in its last 4 games on the road

Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against a team with a winning record

Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 against a team with a +.600 team


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