June 24th 2013 - Posted 06:00 PM Eastern Time


Take Baltimore Orioles on the Money Line (-132) against Cleveland Indians risking 1% (Britton and Jimenez must start)

Baltimore is back home for this series after being swept by the Toronto Blue Jays. Cleveland comes into this game winning 8 of their last 11 games. There are numerous reasons why the Orioles should succeed tonight but what I find most interesting about this matchup is that even though Cleveland has been the hotter team, it is Baltimore that is favored here. That says something about this game right off the bat.

Looking deeper into this game you will find that the Indians have not had much success as road underdogs this season. In fact they are only 12-29 as small underdogs away from home and have severely cost their backers in that situation.

The Indians send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill tonight. Jimenez is a talented but unpredictable pitcher who you never know what you are going to get with when he takes the mound and that is especially true on the road. Jimenez has shown that he can pitch very well at times but is also more than capable of having mid-game collapses. After being swept by the Jays and in particular being embarrassed in their last game, I would look for the usually determined Baltimore Orioles to rebound and take some of their frustrations out on Jimenez tonight.

Zach Britton had an excellent outing in his last game and that should help his confidence tonight.

Two related note-worthy trends that should be considered:

  • The Indians are a horrible 0-8 since September 11, 2012 on the road after a loss where they allowed no more than 10 runs and it is the first game of the series.
  • When Ubaldo Jimenez starts the Indians are 1-7 since September 26, 2011 as a road dog if they used 5 or more pitchers the day before.


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