#1: Take Boston Red Sox on the Money Line (-110)
against Baltimore Orioles risking 2% (Doubront and Gausman must
Both the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles
are having great seasons so far this year with both teams well above
the .500 mark. The AL East is a tough division to play in with teams
like the Yankees, Tampa, Baltimore and the Red Sox this season. Any
of those 4 teams could win the division which means each time these
teams face off, it could have playoff implications at the end of the
season. When two "good" teams face off, it's easy to dismiss
this game as not having any value but sometimes these are the types
of games that exhibit the most value. Tonight we feel there is a mis-match
on the mound between Felix Doubront (4-3, 4.34 ERA) and rookie Kevin
Gausman (0-3, 8.85 ERA). This should still be a closely contested game
but this pitching mismatch will likely be a difference maker or at least
help Red Sox edge it.
Kevin Gausman's major league career couldn't have
gotten off to a worse start! The 22 year old rookie is still looking for his
first major league win but I find it hard pressed to think it is going
to come against an offensive minded team like the Red Sox. I don't say
this often but Gausman has been nothing short of terrible in his 4 starts
so far this season. He did pitch 1 good game this season against Detroit
where he went 6 innings giving up just a single run but in his previous
3 starts, he didn't last more than 5 innings and gave up 4, 7 and 7
earned runs respectively! In his 3 losses he has given up 18 earned runs
in just 13 innings of work! Baltimore has lost the games that Gausman
has started by a combined 20 runs! The Red Sox are not a team that an opposing pitcher
with low confidence wants to face. Boston is extremely efficient on
offense and knows how to get hits and make teams pay for their mistakes.
If Gausman has another outing like he has been having, this game could
be over in the 5th inning. Having performed incredible poorly for the
most part, my guess is he will fare better tonight but will still be
looking for his first win come the end of the night.
Felix Doubront on the other hand had struggled
early on in the season but he has seemed to finally put things together. Doubront has now recorded 4 solid starts in a row and has even dropped
his overall ERA by a full run. Doubront is currently 2-0, 2.13 ERA in
his last couple of starts. Doubront has also had a lot of success pitching
on the road. Traveling away from Boston and pitching in an opponent's
stadium has never really affected him the way that is does most pitchers. Doubront is 8-2 on the road against division opponents over the last
2 seasons. All logic points towards Doubront having the edge
on the mound tonight.
Baltimore managed to take 2 out of 3 in a series
with the Red Sox earlier in the year at Fenway. Like I mentioned earlier,
each of these division games could mean a lot come the end of the season
so Boston will be motivated to not only get revenge but to put on a
good showing and gain some ground back on a potential tie-breaker at
the end of the season. Boston also has a struggling Ryan Dempster pitching
tomorrow against Chris Tillman, who has been the Orioles' most consistent
starter this season. Boston's best chance to jump ahead in the series
is to take advantage of the pitching match-up tonight and they know
that. If they don't, they might find themselves 2-0 down by the end of
tomorrow night and suddenly only have a chance at 'splitting' the series
Boston has 13 of their last 19 games and 4 of
their last 5 on the road. The Red Sox have had no problems grabbing
wins away from home and have in fact done it in 20 out of 32 games on
the road this season!
These two teams are similar because they are never
out of a game. Both the Red Sox and Orioles have the ability to blow
games wide open with their offense and also know what it means to simply
"grind out" wins in close games. The difference being that
Doubront and not Gausman gives their team the best chance to win tonight. Baltimore's pitching gave up 9 runs to the struggling Angels last
night and that doesn't spell good news for the Orioles since they are
just 17-28 in the following games after they have given up 9 runs or
The Red Sox hold the advantage tonight in most
areas of the game and at this price it is simply too good to pass up.
Take the Red Sox tonight.
#2: Take Miami Heat at -1 spread
against San Antonio Spurs risking 2%
This has been an interesting series thus far.
Game 1 was a back and forth battle that we're glad we stayed away from
since either team could have won and ultimately it was the Spurs and
namely Tony Parker who made some clutch shots at the end to grab the
Fast forward to Game 2 and once again it was a
back and forth battle until the Miami Heat whom we had sided with went
on an absolute Rampage at the end of the 3rd quarter to ultimately blow
out the Spurs by 20+ points! In Game 3, as correctly predicted again,
it was the Spurs who bounced back and put on an absolute clinic against
the Heat on the home floor coming away with an easy 30+ point victory!
Tonight we have an all important Game 4 back in
San Antonio with the Spurs up 2-1 in the series. Tonight's game is essentially
a must win for the Miami Heat. With the NBA Finals format being 2-3-2,
the Spurs have 2 more home games before the series travels back to Miami.
By stealing Game 1 in Miami, the Spurs ultimately have 3 home games
in a row and could potentially close out the series before Miami even
sees South Beach again! There is no doubt that home court advantage
means a lot in basketball but so does motivating factors affecting this
game. The Heat understand that they can not go down 3-1 in this series.
If that happens the Heat would need to sweep the remainder of the series
and that is just something that I don't think they can do. This game
is basically for their entire playoffs. They need to win this game.
They had a poor showing last time out and Miami simply is not a team
that loses consecutive games. In fact it has been almost 6 months since Miami
has lost back to back games! Miami is a perfect 11-0 following a loss
dating going all the way back to January 10th!
They are also 14-3 ATS off road losses by more
than 20 points dating all the way back to 1996 and 15-4 ATS when revenging
a loss against an opponent. After an embarrassing loss, this Heat team
has rebounded extremely well in the past and typically does so in convincing
There were also a lot of things that went well
for the Spurs in their first game back at home. They had the revenge
factor after a poor showing against the Heat their previous game and
that helped motivate them, much like it should do for Miami tonight. The Spurs also made 50% of their 3 point attempts in the last 2 games.
While that is impressive, it is highly unlikely for numbers that like
to be sustained over a series. LeBron James has also publicly called himself
out to the media for his last couple of performances so I would expect
James to take a more key role in the game tonight and place his team
on his shoulders as he has done many times in the past and come away
with a win.
Tony Parker has a high profile hamstring injury.
Parker has been a big part of the success of the Spurs over the years
and limiting him and his abilities will be one thing that Miami will
focus on tonight. Taking Parker out of the equation limits the Spurs
offense. This is going to be an extremely motivated Heat team tonight.
Let's not forget that this is still the same dominating team that won
27 straight games this season and were the favorites to win it all.
Past performances are not always indicative of future results, last
game does not matter, the only thing that matters in this game is the
present moment and tonight. Miami has all of the motivation in the world
to win this game and without a 100% Tony Parker, I would be surprised
if they didn't. Take Miami for the win tonight.
Please refer to the all-important SPS Bankroll System instructions received upon joining.