June 13th 2013 - Posted 6:00 PM Eastern Time

#1: Take Boston Red Sox on the Money Line (-110) against Baltimore Orioles risking 2% (Doubront and Gausman must start)

Both the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are having great seasons so far this year with both teams well above the .500 mark. The AL East is a tough division to play in with teams like the Yankees, Tampa, Baltimore and the Red Sox this season. Any of those 4 teams could win the division which means each time these teams face off, it could have playoff implications at the end of the season. When two "good" teams face off, it's easy to dismiss this game as not having any value but sometimes these are the types of games that exhibit the most value. Tonight we feel there is a mis-match on the mound between Felix Doubront (4-3, 4.34 ERA) and rookie Kevin Gausman (0-3, 8.85 ERA). This should still be a closely contested game but this pitching mismatch will likely be a difference maker or at least help Red Sox edge it.

Kevin Gausman's major league career couldn't have gotten off to a worse start! The 22 year old rookie is still looking for his first major league win but I find it hard pressed to think it is going to come against an offensive minded team like the Red Sox. I don't say this often but Gausman has been nothing short of terrible in his 4 starts so far this season. He did pitch 1 good game this season against Detroit where he went 6 innings giving up just a single run but in his previous 3 starts, he didn't last more than 5 innings and gave up 4, 7 and 7 earned runs respectively! In his 3 losses he has given up 18 earned runs in just 13 innings of work! Baltimore has lost the games that Gausman has started by a combined 20 runs! The Red Sox are not a team that an opposing pitcher with low confidence wants to face. Boston is extremely efficient on offense and knows how to get hits and make teams pay for their mistakes. If Gausman has another outing like he has been having, this game could be over in the 5th inning. Having performed incredible poorly for the most part, my guess is he will fare better tonight but will still be looking for his first win come the end of the night.

Felix Doubront on the other hand had struggled early on in the season but he has seemed to finally put things together. Doubront has now recorded 4 solid starts in a row and has even dropped his overall ERA by a full run. Doubront is currently 2-0, 2.13 ERA in his last couple of starts. Doubront has also had a lot of success pitching on the road. Traveling away from Boston and pitching in an opponent's stadium has never really affected him the way that is does most pitchers. Doubront is 8-2 on the road against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. All logic points towards Doubront having the edge on the mound tonight.

Baltimore managed to take 2 out of 3 in a series with the Red Sox earlier in the year at Fenway. Like I mentioned earlier, each of these division games could mean a lot come the end of the season so Boston will be motivated to not only get revenge but to put on a good showing and gain some ground back on a potential tie-breaker at the end of the season. Boston also has a struggling Ryan Dempster pitching tomorrow against Chris Tillman, who has been the Orioles' most consistent starter this season. Boston's best chance to jump ahead in the series is to take advantage of the pitching match-up tonight and they know that. If they don't, they might find themselves 2-0 down by the end of tomorrow night and suddenly only have a chance at 'splitting' the series at best.

Boston has 13 of their last 19 games and 4 of their last 5 on the road. The Red Sox have had no problems grabbing wins away from home and have in fact done it in 20 out of 32 games on the road this season!

These two teams are similar because they are never out of a game. Both the Red Sox and Orioles have the ability to blow games wide open with their offense and also know what it means to simply "grind out" wins in close games. The difference being that Doubront and not Gausman gives their team the best chance to win tonight. Baltimore's pitching gave up 9 runs to the struggling Angels last night and that doesn't spell good news for the Orioles since they are just 17-28 in the following games after they have given up 9 runs or more previously.

The Red Sox hold the advantage tonight in most areas of the game and at this price it is simply too good to pass up. Take the Red Sox tonight.

#2: Take Miami Heat at -1 spread against San Antonio Spurs risking 2%

This has been an interesting series thus far. Game 1 was a back and forth battle that we're glad we stayed away from since either team could have won and ultimately it was the Spurs and namely Tony Parker who made some clutch shots at the end to grab the victory.

Fast forward to Game 2 and once again it was a back and forth battle until the Miami Heat whom we had sided with went on an absolute Rampage at the end of the 3rd quarter to ultimately blow out the Spurs by 20+ points! In Game 3, as correctly predicted again, it was the Spurs who bounced back and put on an absolute clinic against the Heat on the home floor coming away with an easy 30+ point victory!

Tonight we have an all important Game 4 back in San Antonio with the Spurs up 2-1 in the series. Tonight's game is essentially a must win for the Miami Heat. With the NBA Finals format being 2-3-2, the Spurs have 2 more home games before the series travels back to Miami. By stealing Game 1 in Miami, the Spurs ultimately have 3 home games in a row and could potentially close out the series before Miami even sees South Beach again! There is no doubt that home court advantage means a lot in basketball but so does motivating factors affecting this game. The Heat understand that they can not go down 3-1 in this series. If that happens the Heat would need to sweep the remainder of the series and that is just something that I don't think they can do. This game is basically for their entire playoffs. They need to win this game. They had a poor showing last time out and Miami simply is not a team that loses consecutive games. In fact it has been almost 6 months since Miami has lost back to back games! Miami is a perfect 11-0 following a loss dating going all the way back to January 10th!

They are also 14-3 ATS off road losses by more than 20 points dating all the way back to 1996 and 15-4 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent. After an embarrassing loss, this Heat team has rebounded extremely well in the past and typically does so in convincing fashion.

There were also a lot of things that went well for the Spurs in their first game back at home. They had the revenge factor after a poor showing against the Heat their previous game and that helped motivate them, much like it should do for Miami tonight. The Spurs also made 50% of their 3 point attempts in the last 2 games. While that is impressive, it is highly unlikely for numbers that like to be sustained over a series. LeBron James has also publicly called himself out to the media for his last couple of performances so I would expect James to take a more key role in the game tonight and place his team on his shoulders as he has done many times in the past and come away with a win.

Tony Parker has a high profile hamstring injury. Parker has been a big part of the success of the Spurs over the years and limiting him and his abilities will be one thing that Miami will focus on tonight. Taking Parker out of the equation limits the Spurs offense. This is going to be an extremely motivated Heat team tonight. Let's not forget that this is still the same dominating team that won 27 straight games this season and were the favorites to win it all. Past performances are not always indicative of future results, last game does not matter, the only thing that matters in this game is the present moment and tonight. Miami has all of the motivation in the world to win this game and without a 100% Tony Parker, I would be surprised if they didn't. Take Miami for the win tonight.


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