June 11th 2013 - Posted 6:00 PM Eastern Time


There are usually only 1 or 2 good spots for betting most nights and our previous record shows that as we somestime even go for just one game being extremely selective. But on the rare occasions when we do see value in several games, we do go for it.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled tonight and 3 of them have great value in our opinion. In the NBA Finals, we passed on Game 1 but took Miami Heat in Game 2 and now have a suggestion for Game #3. There are 4 bets risking a total of 8% tonight therefore.

Yesterday's two easy winners extended a lucrative period even further for us as there have only been 2 losing nights in the last 15 days now!



#1: Take Boston Red Sox on the Money Line (-119) against Tampa Rays risking 2% (Lester and Hernandez must start)

The Red Sox jumped all over the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday and came out with a 6-0 lead after the first inning! That's how potent the Red Sox offense can be. Boston ultimately let the Rays back into the game and sent the game to extra innings before ultimately securing victory in the 14th inning. That's something that can take an emotional toll on a team. To be almost out of a game from the very beginning, to clawing your way back to tie everything up only to to have all of your efforts fall short eventually and lose anyway. That is an emotionally draining situation which we have seen affect athletes time and time again in almost all competitive sports.

Tampa were on a hot streak prior to their last couple games but have since lost their last 2 giving up 10 runs in each! The Red Sox send their Ace to the mound in Jon Lester (6-2, 3.60 ERA) tonight. Besides Clay Buchholz, Lester is the Red Sox most reliable pitcher this season. He has a ton of experience when it comes to pitching against the Rays and has handled them fairly well in his career. In fact Lester seems to enjoy his visits to Tampa as he is an impressive 5-1 with a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts at Tropicana Field! He will definitely have the edge over a struggling Roberto Hernandez who has an ERA of 6.75 ERA in his last 4 starts. Hernandez has struggled against teams with better than average offenses such as Tigers, Yankees and Baltimore giving up 4, 5 and 5 earned runs respectively.

Boston has won 4 of its last 5 road games and 6 out of 9 at Tropicana Field! They have dominated The Rays winning 6 out of 7 games this season already. The Red Sox jumped out to an early lead last night and I wouldn't be too surprised if they did it again tonight. They have the edge on the mound and the edge behind the plate. Take the Red Sox for the win tonight.



#2: Take Baltimore Orioles on the Money Line (-121) against LA Angels risking 2% (Gonzalez and Vargas must start)

The pitching match-up in this game is what I would consider pretty even between Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 4.05 ERA) and Jason Vargas (5-3, 3.71 ERA). Neither team is likely to enjoy a big advantage on the mound tonight. However it's worth noting that Gonzalez has been dominant in night games over the last 2 seasons as he has acquired a very impressive 14-6 record during that span.

Last night's 4-3 win by the Orioles was a little bit closer than they would have liked but a win is a win nonetheless. Baltimore Orioles have owned the series meetings with the Angels and last night's win pushed them to 4-1 on the season. Baltimore will also have the advantage of once again playing at home where they have won 7 of their last 8 games! The Angels meanwhile are.... well the Angels. Their struggles have been widely publicized this season and they have now dropped 3 straight games and 8 out of their last 10!

I have said it before, Baltimore is the type of team who is never out of a ball game. They are battle tested and resilient and have showed multiple times this season that they can come from behind and win ball games. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-2 in Gonzalez's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record.

In terms of trends, the Angels really don't have a lot of support in that department. They are just 11-19 in their last 30 games when they lost the previous game by a single run showing they don't usually respond well to close losses and in fact they are just 13-23 after a loss this season! As far as night games go, they have disappointed there as well with a 15-30 record in games played at night.

The Angels are also just 2-7 in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record and a lowly 1-5 in their last 6 games on the road. Baltimore is the more complete team at the moment and while this could be a close game, the value is there to back the better team at home to edge it once again. Take Baltimore as Angels' slump likely continues.



#3: Take Cincinnati Reds on the Money Line (-130) against Chicago Cubs risking 2% (Cingrani and Garza must start)

Much like last night's easy winner with Cincinnati, the linemakers are once again showing tremendous value with what we feel is the much better and complete team. The only thing that has really changed from last night's opinion is the fact that the pitching match-up is different, but one where we still feel that Cincinnati hold the edge.

Tony Cingrani (2-0, 3.27 ERA) burst onto the scene this season and has completely baffled opposing lineups. In 6 starts this season, the Reds are 4-2 when Cingrani has taken the mound. Cingrani was most recently dropped back down to the minors when Johnny Cueto came back from injury, however Cingrani will now get another opportunity to show that he belongs in the big league. I don't believe he will let that opportunity go to waste tonight.

Matt Garza (1-0, 4.03 ERA) is just getting back into the swing of things this season after missing much of the start due to injury. In 4 starts this season, Garza has given up 4 earned runs twice and has a 5.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Garza is 1-2 lifetime against the Reds with a 4.55 ERA. His team is just 2-3 when he starts against Cincinnati.

The Reds have now won their last 5 games on the road against the Cubs and 6 of the last 8 meeting overall. The Reds are 8-2 against the Cubs this season alone and have won 13 of their last 18 road games. This game still has mis-match written all over it just like last night. Cincinnati should get the win once again tonight.


Some other notable trends to consider:
  • Chicago Cubs are 5-17 after 3+ home games
  • Chicago Cubs are 0-8 since August 29, 2012 as an underdog following a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits when it is not the last game of a series.
  • Chicago Cubs are 7-19 against division opponents this season.


#4: Take San Antonio Spurs at -2 spread against Miami Heat risking 2%

The Spurs were completely dominated from the end of the 3rd quarter on in Game 2 against the Miami Heat and I believe Heat's dominating performance in the 4th quarter opens value back up for the Spurs tonight as the series transitions to San Antonio.

After Game 1's loss to Spurs (which we had passed), Miami was able to make the necessary adjustments in Game 2 as predicted to limit what had been effective against them in the first game. I believe the Spurs will do the same tonight. That is what good teams and great coaches like Gregg Popovich do. The fact that Miami won the last meeting has no bearing on this game in my opinion. The same way that those who thought Spurs would win game #2 or keep it close because of Game #1 were proven wrong. Tonight's game is theoretically the start of a new series in my opinion. The venue has changed, the game plans have changed and if anything both teams are becoming better the deeper into this series we get. The difference maker in this game is going to be the fact that the Spurs will be returning home tonight and that will be key for them.

San Antonio Spurs were able to take a game on the road against Miami, which is one of the reasons that we backed Miami in Game 2. I would hate to think that they would turn around and make the same mistakes that the Heat did in Game 1 and give home court advantage right back to Miami. This Spurs team is a veteran team and completely understands what is at stake in this game. All 3 Spurs' stars, Parker, Ginobli and Duncan had below average performances in Game 2 out in Miami and yet they still managed to keep the game close up until the 4th quarter. With players such as those three, you can't expect that they will all have 2 poor games in a row, especially now that they are at home. Lebron James didn't play that well in Game 2 (compared to his other performances) and the Heat were fortunate that other players on the team all stepped up to carry the load. I'm not sure that will happen this time, especially being on the road.

The Spurs are not the Bulls, Bucks or Pacers. They are much more experienced and the most dangerous team Miami has faced. They will be looking for a little bit of revenge tonight to make up for last game's 4th quarter performance. Take the Spurs as they get it done in front of their home crowd tonight.



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