Take New York Yankees on the Money Line (-147)
against Kansas City Royals risking 2% (Hughes and Guthrie must start)
Tonight's match-up is a classic case where one
pitcher has had a lot of success against the opposing team while the
other has simply struggled.
Phil Hughes (4-7, 4.55 ERA) may have struggled
in the early part of the season but he has figured things out over his last 3 starts as his ERA is a minuscule 1.81 in that span. As impressive as that it, what is even more impressive is the fact
that Hughes has had a great deal of success in his career against Kansas
City. Hughes owns a 5-1 lifetime record against the Royals (Hughes has won 5 straight decisions) even though
his ERA is up over 6.00, that is due to the fact that the Yankees have
given him 31 support runs in the process.
That really isn't that surprising given the fact
that the Yankees have always been able to seemingly "get to"
Royals pitchers and that should continue tonight with Jeremy Guthrie
(7-6, 4.29 ERA) getting the start for the Royals. Guthrie has done nothing
but struggle against the Yankees in his career. Guthrie had lost 7 straight
decisions to the Yankees prior to picking up a win back in 2011. Guthrie is 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA against the Yankees. When he starts
his team is just 5-10 lifetime. Guthrie has also struggled against other
teams recently going 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in his last 4 starts surrendering
19 runs in just 22 innings during that span.
The Yankees had won 6 straight games before losing
yesterday afternoon in dramatic fashion as Mariano Rivera gave up a
2 run home run in the 9th to give Baltimore a narrow 2-1 victory. Rivera is looking to break a major league record by becoming the only
pitcher to reach 30 saves fiftenn times. He missed out on the record yesterday but given
the way that Hughes has dominated the Royals in recent outings, you
can bet his team will rally around him tonight to ensure he gets a second
chance to make history. Yesterday's loss does sting but this situation has actually played well in
Phil Hughes' favor as he is 22-3 lifetime when he gets the start in
a home game after a loss.
The Yankees bats didn't show their starting pitcher
a lot of support yesterday and it cost Mariano Rivera his milestone.
I would expect the offense to come early and often against Guthrie and
allow a good cushion for Rivera to get his 30th save tonight. Hughes
has been great recently and I expect that trend to continue. This line
is higher than we typically go for, however in this case we believe
there is still value backing New York and won't hesitate. Take the Yankees
for the win.
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