July 6th 2013 - Posted 03:00 PM Eastern Time


After a great month and a half, we knew we would finally have a below-par week sooner or later. The week is of course not over yet and has only been below-par due to sheer bad luck.

Texas gave up a lead late on Tuesday before getting beat in extra innings and then last night Baltimore closer Jim Johnson cost us the perfect night and a 4% sweep by giving up not 1 but 2 runs in the 9th inning to give Yankees the win. Despite that we're only sligthly down on the week and with a good Saturday and Sunday can make this 7 weeks without losing. All in all however if the starting pitchers we bet on go on to do great for 7 innings or so and some relief pitcher loses the game in one inning, there's very little that can be done on our end about that. The good news is that we're nearing the All-Star break already in good shape and have historically done even better in the second half of the season and luck tends to even itself out over the course of a season.

Take Cincinnati Reds on the Run Line (-1.5 spread) against Seattle Mariners risking 2% (Latos and Bonderman must start)

Seattle was able to get one over the Reds and Mike Leake last night in what many would consider an upset. The Reds offense failed to show up yesterday and I believe that sets them up in a nice spot today. The Reds are simply not a team that loses a lot of ball games at home and the fact that they rarely lose 2 in a row says something about the resiliency of this team. The Reds are 14-2 this season at home when coming off of a loss! The Reds have typically come back out the next game and completely redeemed their previous performance. Also losing this afternoon would mean that Seattle would take this series and the Reds, who are currently in a fight in the NL standings can't afford to drop too many games, especially against a team like Seattle.

The Mariners have somewhat owned the Reds as of late winning 5 games in a row, so you can bet that the Cincinnati players will be looking for revenge today. Today would definately be their best chance to do it when Seattle sends Jeremy Bonderman to the mound.

Bonderman (1-2, 4.05 ERA) hans't seemed to have adjusted to his role as a starting pitcher in the Majors. He has been struggling as of late and his struggles have increased on the road this season. In 2 road starts this season Bonderman is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. He has lasted just 5 innings and has given up a total of 4 home runs during his 2 road starts. For Cincinnati, this may be just what they need to get their offense going this afternoon.

The Reds will send out Mat Latos (7-2, 3.03 ERA) to the mound today. Like a majority of the Reds pitching staff, Latos has been consistent most of the season. Lack of run support has been the main issue for Latos, but all should be forgotten this afternoon as the Reds bats should be able to give him plenty of support. Over his last 3 start's Latos' ERA drops to 2.79 although he is just 1-2 in those starts.

Today's bet is largely about motivation and the fact that Seattle was successful not only last night but in the last couple of meeting should ignite a spark in this proud and determined Reds team. Cincinnati is 22-14 on the season after a loss and 30-13 when playing against a team with a losing record. They are still one of the stronger teams at home this season with a 29-15 record. The Reds should definitely enjoy an advantage on the mound and make up for their poor offences showing last night and finally get one over on Seattle and I believe they do it in convincing fashion. The value lies on the Run Line and I suggest we take it.



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