July 30th 2013 - Posted 05:40 PM Eastern Time

Take Philadelphia Phillies on the Money Line (-126) against San Francisco Giants risking 2% (Lannan and Zito must start)

This is a matchup between two teams that are severely struggling at the moment. When a matchup like this presents itself, it often time holds a lot more value than other games on the card and I believe that is again the case today.

It's no secret that the Giants are a long way from the team that won the World Series the last few years. The pitching hasn't quite been up to the level that it has been the last but it is the almost non-existent offense that has really been the downfall of the Giants this season. The Giants have lost 8 of their last 11 games and they have only managed to score 22 runs with a single home run! Offensive production like that is not going to win very many ball games.

John Lannan will get the start for the Phillies tonight and while Lannan hasn't seen a whole lot of action this season, he did manage to get 3 starts against the Giants back in 2011. In those starts Lannan was 0-1 but he did produce an ERA under 2.00. Given the way that the Giants have been cold offensively, it looks like the pitching edge would definitely side with the Phillies especially since the Giants will send Barry Zito to the mound tonight. Lannan is also 4-1 at home this season.

Zito has been nothing short of terrible recently. Not only has Zito gone 0-4 with a 6.35 ERA over his last nine starts but he also is one of only a few pitchers who does not hold a road victory this season! Zito is 0-6 on the road this season and his ERA is 9.89 ERA over those 9 games! Batters are hitting an incredible .426 against Zito in his road starts. That bodes well for a Philadelphia team who could use a little bit of offense right now. Lannan should have the edge on the mound given how poorly Zito has performed.

Some notable trends to consider:

  • When Philadelphia has put a starting lefthander on the mound, the team is 8-3 in its last 11, (which includes 5 straight wins)
  • Philadelphia is 6-1 in its last seven home games following a loss
  • Philadelphia is 5-2 this season as a home favorite from -125 to -150
  • Giants are 1-8 this season when Zito starts on the road
  • Giants are 3-11 when playing with a day off this season


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