July 28th 2013 - Posted 12:00 PM Eastern Time

An excellent week has seen us win 5 out of 6 bets and profit 8 units in the process prior to today! Yesterday's 3% winning bet on Oakland means SPS is now a perfect 4-0 in MLB with its bigger than standard sized 2% bets!

Regardless of how Sunday goes, it has been a great week but just like with Atlanta Braves on Friday night, we have found a small underdog today who we feel is capable of getting the win and hope to wrap up the week with 10 units of profit!

Take Baltimore Orioles as +100 underdogs on the Money Line against Boston Red Sox risking 2% (Hammel and Lester must start)

The Boston Red Sox bats finally came alive last night after being silenced for much of the week. Stephen Drew was the main catalyst for the offense as they evened up the series with Baltimore at 1 game a piece. Today is the third and final game of this series at Camden Yards and I fully expect the Orioles to bounce back to take the series.

Jon Lester was supposed to the be the "Ace" of the Red Sox this season but after starting 6-0, he has struggled mightily since. Lester has given up a total of 66 earned runs so far on the season but what is most concerning is that 48 of those have come in his 13 games on the road! Lester's ERA is 5.61 away from home this season. The amount of runs Lester has given up has been somewhat masked due to the potency of the Red sox bats and the fact that they are one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Lester is just 1-6 with a 8.22 ERA in his last 7 road starts! The Red Sox are just 2-7 when Lester starts on a Sunday and have dropped Lester's previous 5 starts against Baltimore!

Baltimore has been a great team when bouncing back from a loss. This season they are 29-17 in games following a loss. The Orioles are also 11-5 in starting pitcher Jason Hammel's last 16 games played during the day and Hammel himself is 21-11 after a loss over the last 3 seasons.

If there was a team in the league that gave the Red sox more trouble than the Yankees, it would have to be the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are 6-3 against the Sox this season and 27-18 over the last 3 season! Being in the same division has somewhat held Baltimore down but the O's have a stellar record against division opponents and are 69-54 over the last 2 seasons. With the series tied at a 1 game a piece and this being the rubber match, I expect Baltimore to come out motivated today. The Red sox recently gave up first place in the division to Tampa Bay and there is suddenly a lot of pressure on the players to perform. Motivation is one thing but wanting something 'too much' is usually when 'errors' are committed. Baltimore has tomorrow off and to properly enjoy their rest day, they'll want to give it their all and take this important series today. Red Sox on the other hand will be hosting David Price and the red hot Tampa Rays tomorrow and that must be somewhere on the back of their minds.

Two other notable trends to consider:

  • The Orioles are also a perfect 10-0 since May 10, 2012 at home within +120 to -120 odds when they are off a loss in which they had 3 times as many hits as runs.
  • Balimore is 73-52 when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.


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