Pick #2 added at the bottom.
#1: Take Atlanta Braves on
the Money Line (-110) against Cincinnati Reds risking 2% (Hudson and Latos must start)
This is an interesting match-up between two teams
who could once again meet in the playoff this season. Both teams come
into tonight's match-up with nearly identical records and identical
statistics, from the starting pitchers to the batting lineups. Atlanta Braves do boast the league's best home record at 29-13 on
the season however while Cincinnati haven't won a road series
since last month and have dropped 6 of their last 8 road games!
The Braves bullpen has been stellar at home this season with a combined
2.17 ERA. In save situation this season they are a remarkable 12-2! The Reds on the other hand are just 5-8 in save
situations this season.
Something as slight as the performance of the
closer could be the deciding factor in this game tonight when you have
two solid starting pitchers on the mound. The Braves will hold a significant
edge with this game being played in Atlanta tonight as they are 39-15
in their last 54 home games and 38-15 in Tim Hudson's last 53 home starts. Hudson is also 4-1 lifetime against the Reds with a 3.10 ERA.
The line-makers are expecting this to be a close
game given the way that the line opened up and the public seems to agree
as this game is almost near a "pick" and probably will be
by the start of the game. When you have two evenly matched teams, sometimes
it is the subtle differences that determine who comes out on top and
that edge lies with Atlanta tonight in our opinions. Take the Braves as they are a perfect 8-0 when
Tim Hudson has started at home in 2013!
Four other trends to consider:
- Tim Hudson is an impressive 67-27 in home games after a loss since
- Hudson is 45-18 in July games since 1997
- Atlanta Braves are 67-50 when playing against a team with a winning
record over the last 2 seasons.
- The Reds are 4-19 since May 28th, 2011 as a small underdog when off a win in which they never trailed.
#2: Take Arizona Diamondbacks on the Money Line
(-137) against Milwaukee Brewers risking 2% (Miley and Gallardo must start)
Many may look at this game and think that with
Yovani Gallardo's past success against Arizona and the fact that Arizona
were just swept by the Dodgers, the best play here would be Brewers
tonight but I don't agree with that. Yes Gallardo has had a good amount
of success against the Arizona but he has also had his fair share of
Gallardo (7-8, 4.85 ERA) has allowed 17 runs in his last 13 innings and
walked 9! Even though he did get a win against the Mets
last weekend, that came after he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. Gallardo
has given up a home run in each of his last 3 starts and in his last
start against Arizona, he gave up 4 runs and 9 hits in a 8-7 extra innings
loss. Gallardo's record may look impressive, but that may be all it
is since there is no doubt he has struggled. And now with trade rumours
circulating that he could be turning out for another team very soon
including his opponents Arizona tonight, he may be mentally distracted
and not at his best.
Wade Miley on the other hand has been very impressive
in his recent outings. Over his last 3 starts he is 1-1 with a 1.31 ERA.
In his last 21 innings pitched he has given up just a total of 3 runs while facing the Nationals, Mets and Rockies. Miley is also 2-1 lifetime
against the Brewers. In his last start against Milwaukee, Miley gave
up a home run to Jean Segura for the Brewers' only score and gave up
a total of only 4 hits in a comfortable 3-1 victory.
The Diamondbacks still have a 1.5 game lead in the NL West standings
and most recently dropped their last 3 games at home. I would think
that the home series against Dodgers has taught them a lot and can't
see them dropping 4 straight at home. They know they have to start this
series on the right track and that means a victory for the home crowd.
have had their struggles for much of the season and have in particularly
struggled badly against left handed pitchers. They are just 9-22 on the season when facing lefties and Miley is currently on a roll. The Brewers are just 1-7 on the
season when playing on Thursdays (D'Backs are 5-2) and just 15-27 on
the road this season. This line opened at -150 and I believe it it did
so for a reason. I expect Arizona to snap out of their funk tonight
and it's worth noting that Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 road series openers and I wouldn't be surprised if they make that an unenviable 0-5 record
after tonight. Arizona has taken 6 of the last 8 meetings against Milwaukee
and I expect them to score another win tonight.
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