There are 3 bets risking a total
of 6% tonight.
#1: Take the OVER 7 Total in Washington Nationals
vs. Philadelphia Phillies risking 2% (Gonzalez and Lee must start)
A majority of people (about 80%) will look at
this game and see two solid pitchers with good ERA's and automatically
think that this game will go under. However, looking deeper into a game
such as this, the Over looks to be the more sound wager and there are
a lot of trends that support this.
Eight of the last 12 Philadelphia Phillies games
have gone Over the set total while 4 of Washington's last 6 have made
it Over the number as well. When these two teams have met in the past
5 of their last 8 meetings has gone Over the total.
Many people don't really consider the umpire behind
home plate as having a whole lot of impact on the game itself but I
tend to disagree. The home plate umpire is actually quite a pivotal
position because he determines the strike zone and in a way dictates
where a pitcher needs to pitch. If the strike zone is small then the
pitcher has to take more risks by positioning the ball into a smaller
window in order to get called strikes. When that happen either the pitcher
will walk an above normal amount of batters or will tend to leave balls
hanging over the plate allowing hitters to make good contact. Either
way a small strike zone is not a pitcher's friend. MLB umpire Gary Cederstrom will be the home plate
umpire in tonight's game and the Over has gone 9-3 in his last 12 games
behind home plate!
When it comes to the starting pitchers, Gio Gonzalez has been a solid "Over" bet when coming off
a win in his last start. The Over is 8-2 in his following start. Philadelphia as a team has been a solid 'Over' bet this season in
certain situations as well. The Over is 9-1 on the season when the Phillies
are a home favorite of up to -125 and are 16-8 to the Over when the
total is 7 or less (6-2 to the Over when the Phillies are at home).
When looking at all of the data, yes you could
make a case for two good pitchers both having quality starts tonight
and the total staying low but given the past statistics and trends revolving
around totals and with this game's total being just 7 runs, the Over
seems like the more likely result. I wouldn't be too surprised if one of these two
starting pitchers has a poor performance tonight and the relievers/bullpen
aren't likely to be a big help either. I can see this one going just over and if it turns
out to be a close game, a result such as 3-3 would also take the game
into extra innings where we are guaranteed to at least 'push' on this
bet if not cash out altogether. The Phillies are 13-7 to the Over against
left handed pitchers and 26-16 to the Over when playing a team with
a winning record. Take the Over 7 total tonight.
#2: Take Cleveland Indians
on the Money Line (-150) against Toronto Blue Jays risking 2% (Masterson and Rogers must start)
The money line on this game is a little higher
than we typically go for but I believe there is good reason for that
and at the same time this line still provides value. I believe there
is a pitching mismatch on the mound tonight as All-Star Justin Masterson
(10-7, 3.78 ERA) is simply the better pitcher in this match-up and the
one who has the most success against the opposing team. Even though
he has struggled in a couple of his recent outings, Masterson has a 3-1 lifetime record against the
Blue Jays with a 2.86 ERA and has also been quite impressive at home
this season. In 10 games Masterson has acquired a 6-2 record with a
2.83 ERA! The Indians are 7-1 in Masterson's last 8 home starts.
Esmil Rogers (2-2, 3.55 ERA) has pitched well
for a majority of his short season, however he is coming off of his worst start of the year
against Detroit where he gave up 7 earned runs and 11 hits in just 5
innings of work. Rogers has not had that kind of outing yet this
season and with a less experienced starting pitcher, you never know
how that is going to affect their confidence. Like Detroit, Cleveland
is another hard hitting team this season and has an offense that has
the potential to explode at any moment. Rogers has not seen this lineup
first hand in his career and that could either help him or hurt him.
If he tries too much to atone for his last start, he could find himself
in a bad way again tonight. It's worth noting that Cleveland is 83-60 against
right handed pitchers over the last 3 seasons.
The Indians are 9-4 this season as a home favorite
of -125 to -150 and are 22-12 when playing against a team with a losing
record. Toronto has had their fair share of struggles on the road this
season and are just 2-6 in their last 8 away from home. The Blue Jays are also just 5-9 in the 2nd game of a road series this
season when having lost the first game.
I believe this line is set high for a reason.
Cleveland has the majority of the advantages including the most important
one on the mound and with rookie Danny Salazar pitching opposite Mark
Buehrle tomorrow, this is Cleveland's best shot at winning this series.
#3: Take LA Angels on the Money
Line (-131) against Chicago Cubs risking 2% (Wilson and Samardzija must
Even with a loss last night the LA Angels are
tied for the team with the best road record in the league since May
8th. They are 16-9 during that span. The Cubs were able to get one over
on the Angels last night but in this quick 2-game series, I will look
for the Angels to even the score tonight behind the arm of CJ Wilson.
Wilson (8-6, 3.49) has been stellar in his last
couple of outings giving up just 1 earned run in 13+ innings pitched.
Jeff Samardzija (5-8 3.54 ERA) on the other hand has run into some bumpy
terrain recently as he has given up 10 earned runs in just 20 innings
pitched. Half of those runs have come against teams like
Seattle and Houston which makes that record look even worse.
Both pitchers have the capability to completely
shut down opposing offenses and if that is the case tonight it will
come down to the bullpens to decide who has the significant edge. That edge would definitely have to lay with the Angels. The Cubs bullpen
has been shaky at best for the entire season. The Cubs are just 6-7
in save situations at home this season and 20-17 overall. Their bullpen simply can not
be trusted and I believe that is going to be an important factor in
The Angels have appeared to have turned themselves
around from an unexpected slow start to the season. They have won 9
of their last 12 games and their offense has really pulled together
over the last couple of weeks. This is a team that has run through teams
like Detroit, St Louis and Boston recently. I find it hard to believe that the Cubs will
manage to sweep this short series especially considering the Angels
have tomorrow off and will be solely focused on tonight's game while Cubs will be hosting the Cardinals. Chicago Cubs are just 6-12
at home after a win in 2013 and at this price I'm inclined to back the
better team, bullpen and starter. LA Angels have won 7 of their last
8 road games and will look for another one tonight to properly enjoy
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