Thursday, January 31st 2013 Picks - Posted 5:50 PM Eastern Time
Back to back winning nights have put us in a good position to hopefully make this our 6th winning week in a row! Of course we're only halfway through the week right now. Regardless of how tonight goes, one thing is for sure, we've had an AMAZING January and couldn't have started 2013 any better! Tomorrow's plays (February 1st) will come with a summary of January and we also have an announcement to make at that time.
There are many whose packages expire tonight (At the end of the month) and have not yet renewed. That group will find they are unable to log-in tomorrow when February starts.
#1: Take Idaho Vandals at -5.5 spread against Utah State Aggies risking 2 units.
Quickly looking at this game you will see a 14-5 Utah State team going up against an 8-11 Idaho team and I'm sure a majority of people will think "14-5 is a lot better than 8-11" and quickly jump to grab the points with the team with a better record. Tonight however I think that is a mistake.
Utah State may have a better overall record, however they are severely hurting right now. The injury bug has bitten this team hard and right now they are scrambling to find any kind of offense. Utah State has dropped their last 4 games since two of their key players have gone down with injuries and none of those losses have really been close. Utah State has been down big late in the game and have needed a couple second half rallies in order to make the scores look alittle more respectable, but believe me, these games were not as close as the final scores make it appear. During their 4 game losing streak, the Aggies have only been able to keep 1 out of those 4 games within 6 points and that is only because the winning team only scored 51 points ( it was a 48-51 loss to Louisiana Tech ). Not only has Utah State dropped 4 games in a row SU, they have also failed to cover the number in their last 7 attempts.
The Utah State offense has taken a hit due to all of these injuries. State went from averaging 50% shooting from the field to just 37% over the last 4 games and from scoring 72.5 points per game to just 56 per game! Their defense has also suffered drastically as well as prior to the injuries as a team they were holding opponents to just 36% shooting from the field and over the last 4 games they are now allowing their opponents to shoot a blistering 47%. When you look at the stats you can really see how much of a toll the injuries have hurt this team. This is not the same team that they were and the line in this game reflects that.
These two teams have already met once this year back on Jan 5th before all of the injuries. Utah State came out with a 82-75 victory on 48% shooting. Idaho still managed to shoot 41% against their starting lineup on the road. Tonight Idaho is back home and I am sure will be looking for revenge against a much more depleted Utah State team than in the first meeting. Given the way that State has been playing lately and if Idaho plays as well as they did in the first meeting I don't see how this game could be close. I'm predicting that Idaho wins this game and wins big. Lay the points.
The line -6 is also fine to take the same way some can get the game below at +3.5 which is obviously better than +3.
#2: Take Dallas Mavericks at +3 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 2 Units
The Mavericks, despite having a 19-26 record are playing much better basketball as of late. They are 6-3 in their last nine games and those three losses happen to come against Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and last time out to Portland (on the road) by a combined 12 points. In their last game the Mavericks were sighted as 3 point underdogs and got out fast right from the gate and lead 59-42 heading into the half. Portland rallied in the second half but needed buzzer beating basket from LaMarcus Aldridge to seal the game. Dalls will need to regroup from that loss tonight.
Golden State is also playing solid basketball as of late as they have won their last two games and looking to make it 3 straight. Granted those wins came against Toronto and Cleveland, but a win is a win. Golden State however is working on an incredibly thin roster at the moment and tonight they have to face a team that I feel is a class ahead of both Toronto and Cleveland.
Since getting Dirk Nowitski back from injury, the Mavs have been a solid team and should be able to put up a fight tonight.
Injuries have hampered this Golden State team even though it may not have seemed like it given their performance the last two games, however this is a completely different team that they are facing tonight and one that could go point for point with them. The lack of depth I believe is going to be on exposed tonight against the Mavericks.
This is also the first home game after a long road trip for Golden State; historically teams coming off a road trip have struggled in the first game back at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mavericks win this game outright, but I'll play it safe and take the points.
Some Trends to consider:
Dallas is 5-2 against the spread over the last two years playing as a road dog off a road loss and one day of rest.
The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two teams
Dallas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss
Dallas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. pacific teams
Dallas is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest
Dallas is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall,
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference
Dallas is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Golden State is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game
Golden State is 3-7 SU against Dallas in the last 10 meetings
Please note that once your membership expires you will be unable to log in to the Members Area! You can renew or upgrade your membership before it runs out to ensure you don't miss out on any picks. Your new subscription will of course only start once your current one expires.
Click Here To Renew Or Upgrade Your Membership
Please refer to the all-important SPS Bankroll System instructions received upon joining.