Wednesday, January 30th 2013 Picks - Posted 5:25 PM Eastern Time


#1: Take Detroit Pistons at +8 spread against Indiana Pacers risking 2 Units

I believe that this line is skewed tonight given the fact that the Pistons were pretty much blown out in the second half of last night's game against Milwaukee at home. Yes the Pistons are playing the second half of a back to back, but getting completely embarrassed the night before should provide some motivation for this team to atone for their poor showing last night, even though they did put up 90+points. Rarely do teams allow themselves to get blown out in back to back games and typically they come out aggressive in their next game.

Looking at this line; The Pacers are just not a team that blows many teams out. They play at a much slower and methodical pace and use their defense to stifle teams. They play a grind it out style of basketball since their offense is not among the leagues' elite. Look for the Pistons to come out with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder tonight and give the Pacers a run for their money. This will probably be a back and forth game that Pistons can keep close. I wouldn't be too surprised if the Pistons even had a chance to win this game outright.


#2: Take NY Knicks at -9 spread against Orlando Magic risking 2 Units

The Orlando Magic have played the New York Knicks tough in each game they have played this year, but in the end the Knicks were able to put together strong finishes in each game to pull out the win and cover. That says something, that even when a team plays a close game the Knicks still have the offensive firepower to blow a game wide open. The Knicks are 2-0 both SU and ATS against the Magic so far this season, tonight I expect them to make it 3-0.

On paper, the Magic simply don't have enough firepower to match up with the Knicks. They have been relying heavy on Aaron Afflalo to carry the team and Afflalo is averaging 16.7 PPG. Unfortunately he is ruled out for tonights game which will hurt the Magic even more. Jameer Nelson has had a decent season, averaging 15.1 PPG and 7.3 APG but it has been JJ Reddick who has recently stepped up and taken a more assertive role in the offense. He will need to have another big game tonight if the Magic want to even keep this game close.

The Knicks started the season off on fire and although they have somewhat cooled off in recent weeks, New York is still in position for a top playoff seed which will be important this year and they always play teams tough in Madison Square Garden. Carmelo Anthony has played a solid season in which he has shared the ball more than he has at any point in his career. Melo is still averaging 29 PPG. The Knicks also have Tyson Chandler playing strong in the paint and given Glen Davis' recent struggles should have a distinct advantage inside. What this game basically boils down to is that the Knicks are stocked with talent while Orlando is just not. The Magic are just 2-17 SU since the end of December and were just recently blown out by the Nets the other night. I look for a similar ending to this game. NY wins by double digits tonight.

Some trends to consider:

Magic are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the Knicks.

Magic are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.


#3: Take Colorado State Rams at -9 spread against Boise St Broncos risking 2 Units

I have to side with the trends in this game. Boise State's leading scorer is out with an injury and The Rams are one of the nations toughest teams to beat at home.

BOISE ST is 11-26 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

BOISE ST is 5-14 ATS in January games over the last 3 seasons.

BOISE ST is 5-13 ATS after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

BOISE ST is 17-30 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

BOISE ST is 7-20 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 18-8 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 8-0 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons


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