Monday, January 28th 2013 Picks - Posted 4:30 PM Eastern Time
To say we have been on FIRE would be an understatement! After profiting a solid average of 7 units for 4 consecutive weeks, we thought we may finally be due a small losing week but instead went on to profit even bigger than before by bringing in an INCREDIBLE 21 units minus juice and made it 5 winning weeks in a row! We went 14-4 with our 18 predictions last week (Monday 21st - Sunday 27th) and have won our last 8 plays!
It simply does not get ANY better than that and while there will definitely be a losing week sooner or later, for now our goal is to make it 6 winning weeks in a row and today (Monday) is the start of a new week and as always a new chapter.
There are 3 plays tonight risking a total of 6% from our previous profit and it is still as important as ever to follow strict bankroll system instructions and not get overjoyed or too excited by the recent run and lose discipline.
Having won all of our bets this weekend, let's see if we can have another ideal start to the week like we did last Monday.
#1: Take Philadelphia 76ers at +1.5 spread against Memphis Grizzlies risking 2 units (7:05pm)
The Sixers are coming off a huge "upset" win at home against the Knicks on Saturday. Four starters for Philadelphia scored in double figures with Jrue Holiday leading the way with a career high 35 points! Evan Turner and Nick Young each contributed with 20 points as well. This was an impressive win for Philadelphia, not only because their offense came into its own but because the Philadelphia defense was able to hold the Knicks' offense at bay. Carmelo Anthony was able to of course "get his points" which isn't surprising and is expected but the 76ers did a good job in preventing Anthony any help from the rest of his team. J.R. Smith was 0 for 8 from the field and Jason Kidd was 0 for 3.
As for Memphis, they lost outright last night at home to the New Orleans Hornets as 7.5 point favorites. Once again the Memphis offense struggled only putting up 83 total points. What could really hurt Memphis tonight is that point guard Mike Conley twisted his ankle in the first quarter of the New Orleans game and missed the remainder of the game. At this point he is questionable tonight, but even if Conley is healthy enough to go, he more than likely will not be playing at 100% which will hamper the Memphis offense even more.
Memphis obviously has the better record not only overall at 28-14, but they are also 11-8 on the road this season and yet they are only a small favorite over Philadelphia. The reasoning for this is basically due to Memphis' offensive inconsistency. They scored 83 points last night and if they have another offensive performance like that tonight against the 76ers; 83 points is not nearly enough to win that game let alone cover. Philadelphia has all the momentum right now after their huge win over the Knicks and is in their 2nd game of an 8 game home-stand. Philadelphia is always a tough place to play and the 76ers tend to keep games close. Memphis may be a little deflated after last night's loss and that will more than likely carry over to tonights game. I'm backing Philadelphia and believe they can win this game outright, but I'm not going to get greedy, I'll simply take the points.
Some Trends to Consider:
Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, but lost outright last night at home
76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
#2: Take Toronto Raptors at +1.5 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 2 Units (7:05pm)
Once again we have a game today where it doesn't appear that the line reflects the public perception of these teams. Much like Miami Heat and OKC yesterday, both teams were heavy public favorites with suspiciously low lines; lower than what they would normally be and both of those teams lost their respective games outright. Those games didn't pan out well for their backers and I suspect that this game will have a similar result based on there being such a low point-spread. We have a Golden State team who has a 20-18 record going up against a Toronto team that has a 16-28 record. One would think with that kind of parity that the Warriors would be slightly bigger favorites. Once again I feel that the line is set where it is at for a reason.
The Public is clearly behind Golden State in this game with their assumption that they are the "better" team. In fact about 90% of the action is on Golden State tonight. Anytime there is that much of the public on a certain side, it is always worth taking a look at the other.
Golden State has lost 6 of its last 8 games on the road! The Raptors, while they may not be a very good team overall, have been playing solid basketball at home. The stats in this game do strongly favor Golden State, however this is a case where I feel you must ignore the stats and read what the line is telling you. I'm calling for Toronto to win this game outright as Golden State's road woes continue.
#3: Take Pittsburgh Panthers at +6 spread against Louisville Cardinals risking 2 Units (7:00pm)
It is no secret that right now the Cardinals are struggling. After becoming the number 1 team in the nation, Louisville has dropped it's last 3 games and has seemed to have lost their offensive rhythm in the process. Their losses have been somewhat close yet they have failed to make the shots needed at the end to ultimately close games out. During their current losing streak Louisville is only averaging just 60 points per game on 34% shooting while allowing their opponents to shoot 44% from the field. Louisville also has not been able to get their "3" ball going from behind the arc as they are only making about 30% of their 3 point shots over the last 3 games.
Meanwhile Pittsburgh has seemingly turned their season around winning their last 5 out of 6 games beating Georgetown, Uconn and Villanova (a team that Louisville just lost to), during that span. In case you hadn't noticed, each of the aforementioned teams are pretty good this season. In fact the only losses that Pitt has this season are to Michigan, Cincinnati, Marquette and Rutgers...all very good teams this season. Pittsburgh has also hung close in their losses this season losing by an average of 6 points. During their winning streak Pittsburgh has been averaging just about 70 points per contest while only giving up an average of 57. Pittsburgh has been shooting an average of 47% during their last 5 wins while holding their opponents to just 35%.
If Louisville's offense slump continues tonight, I don't think that there is any way that they can win this game, let along cover this number. It appears that the lines-makers as well as the general public are banking on Louisville snapping out of their slump tonight, however I am not so sure. Bad games happen in college, every team has had them at one point or another however when the "bad nights" start to pile up one after another, it is typically a sign of something bigger going on. Louisville is still a very good team however until they can snap out of their slump and show me that they are once again motivated, I am going to have to go against them. This is a solid Pittsburgh team and is more than capable of sending Louisville to their 4th straight loss. Take the points tonight.
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