Sunday, January 27th 2013 Picks - Posted 12:23 PM Eastern Time
Today's picks (Monday, January 28th) will be posted before 6 PM Eastern Time. Please check back around then. You can find yesterday's picks below.
Saturday Night Recap: It does not get any better than this!
It does not get any better than this!
Just like Monday and Friday night, we again won 3 out of 3 selections last night and are now an incredible 12-4 with our 16 predictions this week! At a time where we initially thought we may finally be due a losing week having previously profited nicely 4 weeks in a row, we are instead celebrating our most lucrative week; one that has seen us profit as much as a good month!
Regardless of how today's 2% bets go, we will not only be celebrating our 5th winning week in a row but are also closing in on what has been an amazing start to 2013 in January!
#1: Take Michigan Wolverines at -6.5 spread against Illinois Fightin Illini risking 2 Units (6:00pm)
Michigan is 5-1 in Big Ten Play and if the Wolverines win today's game then they will finally be the #1 team in the nation! Michigan had a chance to become number 1 in the polls before their 3 point loss to Ohio State back on Jan 13th. With the #1 spot on the line it would be easy for Michigan to come in and take this game for granted but I don't think Michigan will let that opportunity slip past them again. It seems that being the #1 team this season has been more of a curse than a blessing since no team can hold onto the top spot, Michigan might just be the team to add some stability to the rankings. Michigan is averaging 78.7 points per game led by Trey Burke's 17.8 points and 7.2 assists per game. Their offense has been impressive but it has been their defense that has been a real eye opener this season. Michigan is only allowing 59.2 points per game. The key for Michigan is staying focused in this game.
After a great start to the season Illinois has really struggled in Big 10 play going only 2-4 this season. Illinois opened up the year on fire going 12-0, however as soon as conference play started Illinois struggled. They have dropped 3 out of their last 4 games including their last 2 home games. Everything that was working so well for Illinois to start the season has not been working for them in league play. Their new "up tempo" offense worked well early on but has not had the same success in the Big 10...in fact you could almost say that it has hurt them. The same goes for their 3 point shooting. The Illini had been lighting it up from behind the arc yet in league play they are hitting only 35% of their attempts. If Illinois is going to have a chance today they will need to make some three pointers and play great defense on an explosive Michigan offense and I don't think that is going to happen. This Michigan team is a well oiled offensive machine and against a poor defense in Illinois, Michigan should not have much of a problem on the offensive end while their defense should shut down and frustrate Illinois.
This Michigan team is going to come out focused on the task at hand and Illinois is going to continue to struggle as Michigan sends a message to the rest of College Basketball world that The Wolverines are the #1 team. Last year's head to head battles were won by Michigan going 2-0 straight up and ATS and I am going to look for them to make it 3-0 both SU and ATS. Michigan rolls to a double digit win here.
Some trends to consider:
Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Illinois is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Illinois is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games
#2: Take Dallas Mavericks at -7.5 spread against Phoenix Suns risking 2 Units (7:35pm)
This is an excellent spot for the Dallas Mavericks and a not great spot for the Suns tonight. Dallas is playing much better basketball now that Dirk Nowitzki is finally back and healthy, the re-insertion of him into the lineup has completely turned this team around. The Mavericks are 5-3 SU and an amazing 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Their only losses coming to the Clippers, Thunder and Spurs. Everyone knows that the aformentioned teams are the top teams in the league and their is absolutely no shame in losing to teams like that; it is almost expected. What I find to be more impressive is that those losses have been by 6 points or less so the Mavs had been right in the thick of things and could have possibly won at least one of those games.
As I said, this is just a bad spot for Phoenix tonight. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days! Phoenix also lost 108-99 to the Spurs last night. That kind of schedule does take a toll on a team not only physically but mentally as well. Players being physically tired and now having to "get up" for a game after a loss isn't exactly an easy thing to do. Teams looking to "avenge" a loss the night before typically come out fast in their next game trying to make a statement. I wouldn't be surprised to see Phoenix come out and grab and early lead however a basketball game is 48 minutes and playing well for only 24 mins does not cut it. Phoenix may be "in" the game early on but the longer the game goes the more tired and sloppy the players will get. This game may be close in the first half but the second half is where I believe the Mavs will ultimately pull away.
Phoenix is a woeful 4-18 on the road this season. It is giving up a whopping 103.9 points/game on the road, getting outscored by 8.4 points/game away from home this year.
Dallas is 9-1 both SU and ATS in its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. They are also 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last 5 home meetings against the Suns dating back to 2010. All five of those wins came by 6 points or more, including four by 9 points or more and let's face it, Phoenix is just not a very good team this season. Lay the chalk
-8 is also fine to take.
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