Saturday, Jan 26th 2013

Friday Night Recap:

We enjoyed the perfect Friday night winning all 3 plays including our rare step-out with Washington Wizards. It was a ballsy call to take a team that had 9 wins on the season prior to last night as 6 point favorites but it turned out to be a great one! They led comfortably throughout the game and ended up double-digit winners!

We profited 7 units minus juice last night to add to what was already a good week and are now just one day away from celebrating out 5th winning week in a row!

Our NBA record now stands at 33 wins out of the last 48 games and we hope to have at least one more winner tonight. Have a great weekend everyone and thank you for your kind messages! They are much appreciated.

#1: Take Minnesota Golden Gophers at +3 spread against Wisconsin Badgers risking 2 Units (2:00 pm)

Minnesota has had a rough time the last couple of weeks. They had been playing like a well oiled machine to start the season and had recently ran into a buzzsaw when they dropped 2 games to Top 10 ranked teams and then had a head scratching loss to Northwestern. There is no shame in losing to teams ranked in the top 10, especially the teams that Minnesota lost to; Indiana ( a former #1 ) and Michigan ( #2 )...honestly you wont see too many teams beat Indiana or Michigan the rest of the season. Minnesota is still a solid team both on offense and defense. They are probably the best Minnesota team in recent years and they still rank #14 in the country. On the year Minnesota averages 74.7 points per game while allowing 62.2 points per game. In this 3 game slide its been the Golden Gophers defense that has let them down, as they are now allowing 75 points per game during their 3 game skid.

Wisconsin themselves are coming off two close losses including last game against #13 Michigan State. Wisconsin went ice cold from the field against MSU but still had a chance to win with a minute to go. Thats not really surprising as that is the style of play of Wisconsin, they are a slow down and grind it out type of team and they smother teams on defense. On the season Badgers average 68.9 points while only allowing 55 points per game. Wisconsin has a somewhat inconsistent offense, they rely on outside shooting as a majority of their offense however Wisconsin has been ice cold from the field the last two games and will have to have a top notch shooting day if they want to beat this Minnesota team. The teams that have beaten Wisconsin this season have been offense heavy teams. Florida, Virginia, Creighton, Iowa...all of these teams were able to maneuver around the Wisconsin defense and put points up on the board. That is what Minnesota will need to be in order to beat Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is just not a team that blows teams out. They typically play teams close to the very end. The only advantage that I see for Wisconsin today is their defense and the fact that they are at home, Minnesota in my opinion is the much better team and are getting a ton of value today due to the fact that they have lost a couple of games, the public perception is going to be skewed. This game will more than likely be a back and forth affair and with games like that it is always attractive to take the points. I feel that Minnesota rights the ship this afternoon and comes away with an outright win. Even if Wisconsin does happen to win this game, I don't see where they will do it in "convincing" fashion. Take the points

Some Recent Trends to consider:

Minnesota is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road

Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road

Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Ten.

Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings with Wisconsin

#2: Take Washington Wizards at +1.5 spread against Chicago Bulls risking 2 Units. (7:05 pm)

Could the lines-makers really make this game any more obvious? The Chicago Bulls, a strong and dominant team is only giving 1.5 points to a 10 win Wizards team? I am calling them out on this one. They are begging for public money and for you to take the Bulls, why else would they make this spread so low? I'm not buying it. When a spread is this low in a game when you have a "good team" and a "poor team" it is almost always a trap.

The Wizards have been on a roll as of late and they completely ran the Timberwolves out of the building last night with a wire to wire win and cover. This Washington team came out of the gate fast and I expect them to do the same tonight. Chicago is a tough defensive team but they are not anything special on offense, especially without Derrick Rose and Luol Deng. Chicago is also just 2-9 ATS this season when playing on Saturday while Washington is 11-2 ATS this month and 9-2 ATS when playing on the second half of a back to back. Just like last night, I can't believe I'm going to say this but I'm calling for the Wizards to beat the Bulls at home tonight. Take the points.

#3: Take Milwaukee Bucks at -2.5 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 2 Units. (8:35 pm)

Both the Milwaukee and Golden State had their respective three game winning streaks snapped last night as the Bucks fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers 108-113, while the Warriors were completely outclassed by the Chicago Bulls 103-87. Milwaukee, who has been playing much better basketball since firing their coach actually led by 20 points midway through the third quarter but allowed Kyrie Irving to score 23 of his 35 in the second half. Meanwhile, Golden State was never really in the contest as they got beaten in every facet of the game, shooting just 34% from the field, getting out rebounded 56-37 and were beaten 28-6 in second-chance points. The difference between those two games were the fact that the Bucks were firmly in control of their game ( on the road ) before they allowed one man to simply beat them. Kyrie Irving is an absolute monster so I am not going to read too much into that loss, especially with Milwaukee being on the road. Those types of games happen and they have happened to every team.

Milwaukee has played well at home and the public is going to be all over this Golden State team looking to atone for their performance last night. The public is in love with this team and I honestly don't know why. They are a solid basketball team but they are not the Spurs or the Heat... Yes they are tough at home and have beaten some good teams, however they have shown some inconsistencies on offense on the road. Add to the fact that Golden State also hasn't had a whole lot of success against this Bucks team. Even before Milwaukee had been playing well enough basketball to get noticed, Golden State has gone 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meeting between these two teams. Milwaukee is also 5-1 ATS in games after an upset loss as a favorite. The homecourt advantage is going to be the difference in this one. Lay the chalk tonight


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