Monday, Jan 21st 2013

A bad ending to a good week saw last week's profit get reduced to a still solid 5 units minus juice. Consistency is measured by weeks and more importantly months and not individual days. Having profited 5 units last week, 8 units the prior week and 7 units in each of the two weeks before that, we have shown good consistency and accomplished our goal of putting together a 4-week winning streak! Clients who have been with us for a few months will remember that in September-Early November, we put together a stellar 10-week winning streak which we hope to emulate again in the near future!

As far as January and the new year go, despite a couple of back to back losing nights here and there, we've profited nicely thus far as we've had only 6 losing nights in the first 20 days of the year. If we can maintain the same ratio of winning to losing, we are slowly but surely building up to what promises to be another lucrative year. Our system is designed for long-term success and results rather than short-term temporary gains and that's all we and our clients care about. You are encouraged to check the performance part of the website as it gets updated with the previous night's results/picks each and every day.

Having enjoyed 3 winning weeks in January so far, our next immediate goal is to enjoy a 4th good week to ensure of a nice profitable opening month to 2013. Today is the start of the new week and we have 3 plays for 2% each.

#1: Take Brooklyn Nets at +3.5 spread against New York Knicks risking 2 Units (3:35pm)

Today is the season ending series between these two teams to determine exactly who is the supreme team in NY. The last time these two teams met, the New York Knicks won at home by a score of 100-86. Since then, the Knicks are just 6-7 over their past 13 games. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has won 11 of their past 15 games since that game against the Knicks. It is fair to say that the momentum in this game sides with the Brooklyn Nets and a key reason for their recent success (besides the coaching change) has been because of the play of Brook Lopez. Lopez has proven capable of taking this team onto his back and leading them on both ends of the floor. Reggie Evans has also stepped up his game and could play the role of Wildcard in this contest. In the month of January, Evans is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game. More significantly, he's grabbing 3 offensive rebounds per contest. The Nets are 8-1 during this span. Evans is in prime position to dominate the glass, once again. Evans has grabbed at least 15 rebounds in three of his past six games. If Evans can capitalize on defensive stops and limit second chance scoring opportunities, the Nets will control the pace of this game.

Everyone knows what Carmelo Anthony brings to the table for the Knicks. It's no secret that Anthony is one of the catalysts of the Knicks offense, however when Anthony has been off, the entire Knicks offense has suffered. You will not completely shut down Anthony, he is just too good of an athlete for that, however if you can limit him or at least slow him down and limit his second chance opportunities, that is how you beat the Knicks. The Nets should have a rebounding edge in this contest and I think that will be the difference in this game. The Knicks won the first meeting but I see the Nets controlling the glass and evening up the series this afternoon. Take the points.

#2: Take Baylor Bears at -4 spread against Oklahoma State risking 2 Units (5:30pm)

Baylor has won four of its last five games, while also taking seven of its last 11 meetings with Oklahoma State. The Bears have a 20-7 record in their last 27 Big 12 home games since the start of the 2010 conference season. They are an extremely tough team to play at home and have a dominating prescence in the paint which I feel is going to be the difference in this game. Currently the Bears are scoring 37 ppg inside the paint. Oklahoma State is still an young and inexperienced team that is still trying to find it's identity. They do some things well but they do not spread the ball out well. They currently rank 220 in the nation in assists per game. The lack of ball movement could hamper the offense of this team playing against the length of the Bears. The Bears also are 6-0 ATS at home against OK State while state is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. If OK State does not find an answer for Baylor in the paint, I don't see how they keep this game close. Baylor wins this by at least 6.

#3: Take Philadelphia 76ers at +6 spread against San Antonio Spurs risking 2 Units (7:05pm)

The Spurs have had their way in the past against the 76ers, winning and covering the last 3 games in the series, however, as much of a cliche' as it may be I am a firm believer that past performance is not always indicitive of future results and I feel that may be the case in this game tonight.

When these two teams met a few weeks ago back in San Antonio, lets be fair; the game wasn't even remotely close. In fact San Antonio won in blow out fashion 109-86. That being said, while many people are assuming that the same type of blowout is going to happen, I am not completely convinced. Very rarely do teams blow out the same team twice in the same season, the second meeting has historically been much closer. The Sixers also showed me something the other night when they rallied back against the Toronto Raptors to win (and cover) 108-101 in overtime. Philadelphia may be struggling this year but they are still a solid team. In my opinion they are severely under-performing this season however I feel that they have it in them to compete and they showed that in the game against Toronto.

While San Antonio did win last year at the Wells Fargo Center 100-90, its worth mentioning that that win broke a four-game ATS winless streak for them in Philadelphia. The Spurs this year, just like in years past have been kind to their backers however it is worth noting that they are just 13-10 ATS on the road this season. They are not covering spreads at the alarming rate that they had been in years past. They had dropped three in a row both SU and ATS before taking down the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday night, and I think that they are going to find themselves in a bit of trouble again in this game. Jrue Holiday has a chance to make a major statement tonight against Tony Parker. Coming off of a game in which he dropped 33 and 14, there's a good chance that Holiday steps up again tonight and has another good performance. Holiday ranks third in the league in clutch field goals made. While I don't think the 76ers are quite up to the task of knocking off the Spurs, I do feel that this game will be a lot closer than people think. The 76ers get a little bit of revenge from the last time these two teams met and keep this one close.

This line opened at +6.5 and with the public heavily backing Spurs, you may be able to get it back at that line closer to game time.


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