Sunday, Jan 20th 2013

After last night, we are 8-4 this week and have profited 8 units minus juice in the process. Other than those who signed up today and yesterday, we all have reasons to celebrate as regardless of how today goes, we'll have experienced our 4th consecutive winning week and our 3rd one in the new year!

Some people bet bigger on championship games simply because they are 'Big Games'. That is a mistake and something to be avoided! There is rarely as much value in these marquee match-ups and big games as there are in regular season games and yet most can't resist the temptation of betting a fortune on Super Bowl and games like that.

Due to the small Basketball card today (Only a few NBA and CBB games scheduled), there is only one 1 NBA pick today. We are risking 2% of our bankroll on Kevin Durant and Oklahoma City and 1% on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.


#1: Take New England Patriots at -8 spread against Baltimore Ravens risking 1 unit. (6:30 pm)


#1: Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -1 spread against Denver Nuggets risking 2 Units.

Oklahoma City owns the best record in the league at 32-8 on the season and 13-5 on the road. The fact remains that the Thunder just do not lose a whole lot of games. There are not too many times a year where you will see the Thunder at a near pick'em. Normally when you see a strong team such as the Thunder in a pick'em situation, it is always worth looking deeper into a game as it just does not happen often and you need to avoid certain "traps".

The Nuggets looked to bounce back from a 117-97 beat-down at Oklahoma City with an easy win over the league-worst Wizards, but things went from bad to worse with the Nuggets losing by 112-108 at home! Something that just does not happen often. Denver has been statistically an extremely strong "home team" however that loss to the Wizards certainly put a different light on things. Both teams started the game with some sloppy play, missing layups left and right, but the shots started to drop and it was the Nuggets who started missing in the fourth, getting outscored 32 to 21. The Denver home mystique may have lost a little bit of its luster after that loss, showing that a team can go into Denver and knock off the Nuggets.

In ATS trends, the Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games following a win, while the Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss but are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head to head, the Thunder beat the Nuggets by 117-97 on Wednesday and are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver. The last time these two teams played in Denver the Thunder were slated as -2.5 favorites (a similar line) and the Thunder won that game 103-90.

Even with the shocking loss against the Wizards, the Nuggets still rank third in the league with a home record of 15-3 but there is no way I can make any real argument for the Nuggets tonight. Yes, they are at home and will be eager to get revenge tonight, but Westbrook and Durant are playing at the highest level at the moment and should be good enough to win again. I don't get the feeling that this is a "trap" game as the Nuggets have shown that they are beatable at home. The Thunder always give their best effort out on the floor and should go into Denver and knock off the reeling Nuggets.


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