Monday, Jan 14th 2013

#1: Take Utah Jazz at +2.5 spread against Miami Heat risking 2 Units. (9:05 pm)

It is always a little bit nerve racking going against the Miami Heat for obvious reasons that I don't believe I need to go into great detail about. The Heat are one of the top teams in the league and with that stigma comes an aura of so-called invincibility. The Heat, along with teams like the LA Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder are always huge public favorites given their propensity to dominate a game at any given time. That stigma however can also be used to our advantage as there is often value in backing those particular teams' opponents given the right situations. I feel tonight is one of those type of situations.

In the NBA there are few venues that teams absolutely dread playing on the road in. One is mile high stadium to face the Denver Nuggets. The other is going out to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz. The Jazz are an incredibly tough team to beat at home. They have won 11 of their 15 home games this season with 2 of their 4 losses coming by a combined 3 points and both losses were to the LA Clippers during their incredible winning streak. The Miami Heat on the other hand have been a very mediocre team on the road at best. Prior to dropping 128 points on a very poor Sacramento Kings team the other night, the Heat were just 1-5 ATS on the road in their last 6 games. They have just flat out struggled on the road. Their only road ATS win during that stretch was against the Charlotte Bobcats. Utah has also won 3 of the last 5 meetings with Miami as Miami has routinely struggled with the size and length of the Jazz players. Miami's Achilles heel this season has been rebounding the basketball and that happens to be one of the Jazz's strengths as they are one of the top 3 teams in the league in rebounding. Given how good the Jazz play at home and Miami's struggles on the road, Miami will be lucky to come out of Salt Lake City with a win and even if they do this game will go right down to the wire. Take the points.

#2: Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -5 spread against Phoenix Suns risking 2 Units. (9:05 pm)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are perhaps the best team in the NBA this season while Phoenix is arguably one of the worst. The Suns, while they may have knocked off the Chicago Bulls the other night in surprising fashion, still had lost their previous 5 games in blowout fashion. The Suns do not have the depth or the talent to keep up with the Thunder in this one. They do not have the personnel to cover either Russel Westbrook or Kevin Durant. This game has blowout written all over it and I do not see anything in this matchup that makes me think that the Thunder doesn't roll to at least a double digit win.


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