#1: Take Utah Jazz at +2.5 spread against
Miami Heat risking 2 Units. (9:05 pm)
It is always a little bit nerve racking going
against the Miami Heat for obvious reasons that I don't believe I need
to go into great detail about. The Heat are one of the top teams in
the league and with that stigma comes an aura of so-called invincibility.
The Heat, along with teams like the LA Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder
are always huge public favorites given their propensity to dominate
a game at any given time. That stigma however can also be used to our
advantage as there is often value in backing those particular teams'
opponents given the right situations. I feel tonight is one of those
type of situations.
In the NBA there are few venues that teams
absolutely dread playing on the road in. One is mile high stadium to
face the Denver Nuggets. The other is going out to Salt Lake City to
face the Jazz. The Jazz are an incredibly tough team to beat at home. They have won 11 of their 15 home games this season with 2 of their
4 losses coming by a combined 3 points and both losses were to the LA
Clippers during their incredible winning streak. The Miami Heat on the other hand have been
a very mediocre team on the road at best. Prior to dropping 128 points
on a very poor Sacramento Kings team the other night, the Heat were
just 1-5 ATS on the road in their last 6 games. They have just flat
out struggled on the road. Their only road ATS win during that stretch
was against the Charlotte Bobcats. Utah has also won 3 of the last 5 meetings
with Miami as Miami has routinely struggled with the size and length
of the Jazz players. Miami's Achilles heel this season has been
rebounding the basketball and that happens to be one of the Jazz's strengths as they are one of the top 3 teams in the league
in rebounding. Given how good the Jazz play at home and Miami's
struggles on the road, Miami will be lucky to come out of Salt Lake
City with a win and even if they do this game will go right down to
the wire. Take the points.
#2: Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -5 spread
against Phoenix Suns risking 2 Units. (9:05 pm)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are perhaps the best
team in the NBA this season while Phoenix is arguably one of the worst.
The Suns, while they may have knocked off the Chicago Bulls the other
night in surprising fashion, still had lost their previous 5 games in
blowout fashion. The Suns do not have the depth or the talent to keep
up with the Thunder in this one. They do not have the personnel to cover
either Russel Westbrook or Kevin Durant. This game has blowout written
all over it and I do not see anything in this matchup that makes me
think that the Thunder doesn't roll to at least a double digit win.
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