Saturday February 9th 2013 - Updated 4:05 PM Eastern Time
#1: Take Fresno State at +14 spread against San Diego State risking 3 Units
These two teams have already met this season with Fresno State dropping a close game at home 65-62 against San Diego State in a game where Fresno State could have won. Fresno State has not necessarily been a "good" road team this season going just 3-7 on the road but they have only been beaten three times by more than nine points. They are a team that historically "stays around" in games. San Diego State has a tendency to "relax" after gaining a lead on their competition and laying 14 points leaves a lot of room to allow teams to "hang around". SDSU wins this game but I believe it will be closer than people think.
#2: Take Missouri State Bears at +15 spread against Wichita State risking 3 Units
Missouri State is a team that has been quietly flying under the radar this season. Their overall record may shy away potential backers since they are just 7-17 on the season, however they have been straight money makers against the spread (ATS). In conference play this season, the Bears are just 5-7 straight up, however ATS, they are an astonishing 11-1. They may not win a lot of games outright but they have been able to cover the number in all but 1 of their conference games. It just goes to show that this Missouri State team is much better than their record indicates and the lines-makers have not been giving them the respect they deserve.
Wichita State in my opinion is just not as good a team as they appear to be. This team has been upset in each of their last three games going 0-3 both SU and ATS. Their losses were somewhat "head scratchers" as well since they lost to Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois.
These two teams have met once already this season a couple of weeks ago with Wichita State coming away with a 62-52 win on the road (Missouri State covered that game as an 11 point underdog). This sets up a nice "revenge" situation and you can expect a much stronger effort tonight from Missouri State. Given Wichita State's struggles over the last 3 games I think this is just way too many points to be giving this team that has a habit of squeezing into the number. What I also found interesting was that Missouri State has not lost to Wichita State by more than 15 points in any of their last 17 meetings dating back to 2006! Trends of course are meant to be broken, however I don't feel that it starts tonight.
#3: Take Sacramento Kings at -1 spread against Utah Jazz risking 3 Units
Sacramento is not a "good team" by any stretch of the imagination and I am not going to pretend that they are. Betting the NBA is more about "Situational Awareness" and Line placement than it is about simply taking what a person would feel is the "better team". Upsets happen all of the time and they leave people wondering "What happened, how could team A lost to team B...Team A is so much better". This is one of those situations tonight.
The Kings are a much better team at home than they are on the road, much like Utah, however we haven't see much of that recently since this will be the Kings first home game since Jan 25! I'm not going to sugar-coat it; Utah is an absolute terrible team on the road and are just 9-16-1 ATS in road games this season. The Kings have also been off since Monday so they will be extremely rested tonight. Interesting enough the last game that they played was against this same Utah team in a game which the Kings took the Jazz to overtime on the road. The Jazz played late into the night last night and ultimately fell at home to Chicago. Now they have to travel and have to play a much more rested Kings team. This is also Utah's 3rd game in 4 nights. As we have seen so many times this season, it is always tough to bet on teams in back to back or 3 in 4 situations. Not only does a team get physically tired, but mentally tired as well and that loss to Chicago last night only adds to the fatigue.
What should also be a motivating factor is that this could possibly be the Kings last home game in front of the Sacramento fans before packing up and moving to Seattle. You can bet that the Kings are going to want to come out and put on a show for the fans that have showed their support for this team, even with all of their struggles.
Look for this game to be the Kings "swan song".
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