Monday, February 4th 2013 - Posted 5:35 PM Eastern Time
A bad weekend saw our incredible 5-week winning streak finally come to an end this past week as we encountered our first losing week in 2013.
Losing is not pleasant but it is unfortunately part of the game at some point. We were on a remarkable run and couldn't just continue winning forever, especially after going 14-4 with our predictions the week prior to last and earning 21 units over 7 days! We were simply due a losing week sooner or later as we even warned about and it finally came this last week when we hit a block on Friday.
The poor past few days means we gave a portion of our previous profit back but it doesn't change the fact that we're still up 23 units in 2013! If you were to ask anyone prior to the new year, if they would like to be up 23 units already by February 4th, everyone would have raised their hands and said yes. Our start to February has been poor but soon that won't be relevant. We are still up an impressive 23 units on the year and will be extending that further along the coming weeks and months.
And now with a losing week that we were almost 'due' behind us, we aim to and are confident of going on another winning streak. It doesn't necessarily have to start right away tonight but one thing is for sure, come the end of February, we will most likely be up a good amount again and have earned a nice return on our investment.
#1: Take Iowa State Cyclones at -6 spread against Oklahoma Sooners risking 2 Units
Iowa State has been extremely solid across the board this season as the Cyclones rank in the top 100 in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, and field goal percentage. They will also have a huge advantage over Oklahoma when it comes to 3 point shooting. Iowa State is extremely dangerous from 3 point range as they average (9) 3-pointers per game. Oklahoma ranks dead last in the conference at just 3 per game. While I expect that Oklahoma will come out strong tonight due to their poor performance last game against Kansas State, Oklahoma just does not have the firepower, or pure scorers on the team to keep up with Iowa State.
Hilton coliseum is fastly becoming known as one of the toughest places to play in the college basketball world. The Cyclones are the only team in the conference who has not lost at home this year. Whats more impressive is that they've gone 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games at home dating back to last year. Take Iowa State to cover this number.
#2: Take Washington Wizards at +3 spread against LA Clippers risking 3 Units
After coming off a record month in December, LA Clippers have been struggling over the last few weeks. LA is coming off back to back losses including Sunday's loss to Celtics. Over the last 8 games the Clippers are just 2-6 SU and ATS. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Chris Paul has been sidelined for the last couple of weeks. As I stated yesterday, Paul is the glue that holds this offense together, without him, LA just appears lost as they are only averaging 94 points per game without him. The 106-104 loss to the Celtics yesterday also wasn't nearly as close as the final score dictated. The Clippers fell behind by as many as 20 points and stayed around the 16 point mark until Boston, basically "stopped playing offense" and allowed the Clippers to get back into the game during the 4th quarter. What I found interesting about that game is that the Celtics are not known as a high powered offensive team. They are a team that typically like to play close, low scoring games and yet the Clippers defense was basically allowing them to do whatever they wanted on the court. Over the last 8 games Clippers have allowed over 93 points in all but two games.
Washington had been known as one of the bottom dwelling teams in the league, however getting John Wall back from injury has really given the Wizards a boost. Wall has proven (in just three seasons) to be one of the best play makers in the NBA. Since returning from injury the Wizards have gone 5-8 getting nearly as many wins in that span as the Wizards' first three months of season! While they still may not be winning a whole lot of games, they are one of the best "covering" teams in the league and have been playing well at home, where they have some impressive wins against top-tier competition like the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder! The Wizards are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The key for Wizards is to get out in the open court, Washington is not a great slow down team and needs a high scoring game to win. The Clippers are also playing the second half of a back to back tonight and I'm willing to bet that they are a tired group after having to climb back from a 16 point deficit yesterday only to fall short. That type of high and low can really drain a person both physically and mentally. The Wizards are young and will be rested for tonights game and I believe they not only hang with the Clippers tonight but they could possibly even win this game outright.
Some trends to consider:
Washington is 14-4 ATS in non conference games this season
Washington is 13-9 ATS in home games this season and 4-2 as a home underdog of 3 points or less
Clippers are just 2-8 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less this season
#3: Take NY Knicks at -10.5 spread against Detroit Pistons risking 3 Units
Already this season the Knicks have blown out Detroit twice going 2-0 both straight up and ATS. The last 10 head to head match-ups has seen the Knicks dominate going 9-1 straight up and ATS. I realize that its tough to continuously blow teams out however thats exactly what the Knicks have done the last 5 times these teams have met. The closest that the Pistons have gotten to a "cover" was this season back in January when these teams first met. Detroit lost 102-87 on their home court. In the 3 games that have recently been played at MSG, the average margin of Knicks victories have been by 23.3 points. It's incredibly hard to argue with numbers like that and I really can't make much of a case for Detroit in this game either.
The Pistons are coming off close loss on Sunday afternoon as Detroit just missed gaining an upset of LA Lakers. The Pistons were involved in a big trade last week where they basically gave up their most reliable scorer in Tayshaun Prince. Prince was a veteran force on a very young Pistons team and with out skills and leadership on the court, I don't see how the Pistons can keep this game close.
The Knicks on the other hand are slowly reverting back to their early season form. They are hot at the moment and have won 4 straight games while going 3-1 ATS in the process. Each of those wins have been easy double digit victories. I believe part of the reason for their recent success is because they are finally getting healthy and has given them a chance to work on team chemistry. Raymond Felton coming back has been a big part of the Knicks recent success as he spreads the ball out and allows the Knicks to do what they do best and that's shoot the 3 ball.
At this point is tough to go against the Knicks given their dominance over the Pistons and given how well they are playing at the moment. Madison Sq garden is a tough place to play and with the Pistons' offensive struggles, I don't see how they keep this one close. The Knicks get another "easy" double digit victory tonight.
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