There are 3 bets risking a total
of 6% tonight.
#1: Take New York Yankees on the Money Line (-126)
against LA Angels risking 2% (Nova and Weaver must start)
Tonight's match-up will pit two of the leagues'
current hottest pitchers against each other but while both pitchers
have recently done very well, the teams themselves are seemingly headed
in opposite directions. The New York Yankees will seek their 4th straight
win as the try to make a late run for the playoffs. The Angels however
have dropped 8 of their last 10 and are simply looking forward to the
end of the season.
Ivan Nova will get the start for the Yankees.
After struggling early in the season, Nova has turned things around
and posted an impressive 1.60 ERA since rejoining the rotation back
on July 5. Nova has hurled 6 quality starts in a row and
what I find even more impressive is the fact that he has only allowed
one home run over his last 43 innings pitched! Even with a 1.60 ERA, Nova is just 3-2 since
the beginning of July due to the fact that he had received just 5 runs
of support over his last 4 starts! That may well have changed however
since his team exploded for 14 runs over the Angels last night.
Jered Weaver has been solid since the beginning
of July but there may be a little chink in his armor as he has did surrender
2 home runs in his last start after allowing just 2 over his last 8
starts prior to that. That could spell trouble tonight since the Yankees
have seemingly found their offense and had 3 home runs in last night's
game. While Weaver has been solid at home, on the road he hasn't been
as reliable. In 7 road starts this season Weaver is just 1-3 with a
3.74 ERA. Weaver has also not had the greatest outings against
the Yankees in the past as his lifetime ERA against the Bronx team is
5.21! The Yankees have won 5 of the last 6 games when
hosting the Anaheim club and will look for the series clincher tonight.
While Weaver may still be quality pitcher, the
Angels are not a quality team this season. The Halos have dropped 13 of their last 18 games
overall and are just 2-9 in their last 11 on the road! The motivation factor could essentially come into
play tonight as the Angels really have not much to play for at this
point. Their bullpen has been disastrous recently as they struggle to
hold on to wins even when their offense has produced. Playing in New
York, in a hitters park against a team like the Yankees is never an
easy feat. Playing a motivated Yankees team who are on a roll while
you have nothing to play for is an even bigger one.
Robinson Cano is just one home-run shy of hitting
200 for his career and will no doubt be out to achieve this milestone.
The Yankees need to win this series and know their best chance of doing
so is tonight since tomorrow's pitching match-up pairs CJ Wilson against
the struggling Phil Hughes. The Halos are only 2-6 on the road when Weaver
won his last outing and are currently dealing with some knocks and injuries. Howie Kendrick remains on the DL while short-stop Erick Aybar left
yesterday's game with cramp. He'll probably feature tonight but likely
won't be 100%. Take the better more motivated team at this cheap price.
#2: Take Boston Red Sox on
the Money Line (-144) against Toronto Blue Jays risking 2% (Lester and Rogers must start)
Even though Jon Lester has been inconsistent this
season, I still believe there is a mismatch on the mound tonight when
Lester takes on Toronto's Esmil Rogers. Rogers was actually supposed
to be demoted to bullpen duty given his struggles in the starting role. Rogers has an awful 8.50 ERA over his last 7 starts which puts him
near the very top of the list for worst ERA in the majors during that
An injury to another struggling Jays pitcher (Josh
Johnson) has thrown Rogers right back into the starting role and tonight
he will have the task of facing an offense that leads the league in
total runs scored! Rogers is 0-3 with an astonishing 16.05 ERA in his
last 3 starts. To say he's been struggling would be an understatement! Needless to say, I don't expect him to be confident when he takes
the mound tonight and another poor performance is the more likely outcome.
Lester has struggled in the mid part of the season
but something that he does have going for him is the fact that he has
seen Toronto quite a bit in his career. Lester is 14-7 in his career
against Toronto which includes making 4 starts against them this season
alone. Lester has dominated Toronto this season and has
an excellent 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA against the Blue Jays which is almost
a full run shy of his overall ERA!
The Blue Jays can be a good hitting team most
of the time but their roster boasts a lot of left-handed power hitters.
That is one reason they haven't fared well against southpaws and since
Jon Lester is a lefty, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him contain
the Blue Jays. The Red Sox are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between
these two teams and Toronto is only 18-31 when facing a division rival
this season. One stat that is even more intriguing is that
when playing against a team with a winning record, the Blue Jays are
a horrible 1-13 at home in the second half of this season.
The Red Sox showed last night that they have the
ability to win the game with any batter in their lineup at any given
time. All season long they have scored runs and won games whether it
be through grinding them out in extra innings as they did last night
or winning with ease. Against a pitcher that just 5 days ago lasted
only 3 innings giving up 7 runs, the Red Sox should score easily tonight.
Colby Rasmus missed yesterday's game and will likely be out tonight
as well. Back the better team with the better pitcher.
#3: Take Washington Nationals
on the Money Line (-147) against San Francisco Giants risking 2% (Zimmermann and Lincecum must start)
The Washington Nationals are on a roll winning
4 straight games and the outcome of tonight's game is of importance
to them since as win tonight would tie the Nationals' longest winning
streak of the season. The Nationals have given themselves a chance recently
but at two games below .500 on the season, each and every game for this
team must count if they want to meet their expectations. This is the time of year where quality teams stand out and make a
late-season push towards the playoffs. The Nationals are in a position right now where
they absolutely need to win the types of games that they should and
that includes tonight's home game against the struggling SF Giants.
Tim Lincecum is not the same pitcher that he was.
The former 2-time Cy Young award winner appears to be a mere shell of
himself. Although he recorded a no-hitter earlier in the year and he
has posted a couple of quality starts in a row, a majority of his struggles
(much like his team) have come on the road this season. Washington is
no stranger to Lincecum as they have been able to hit him and hit him
hard in his career. Lincecum is just 1-4 lifetime against the Nationals
with an inflated 5.68 ERA and finds himself in a difficult situation
tonight as he has not fared well after a loss. He is just 1-12 on the
season following a loss! The Giants as a team are just 7-17 over the last
2 seasons when Lincecum starts in a road night game.
Jordan Zimmermann has struggled after the All
Star break but is still a quality All-Star pitcher and has been stellar
at home. In 14 home starts, Zimmermann is 9-2 with a 2.90 ERA and his
team is 11-3 when he has started at home this season!
Last night's victory means the Nationals are 7-1
against San Francisco over the last 3 seasons when hosting them. Washington
has simply dominated these home series and I don't see any reasons why
it shouldn't continue tonight. Washington is the team playing better
baseball at the moment while the Giants are simply waiting for their
season to end. The Nationals have scored a total of 27 runs over
their last 4 games and their bats should do enough to grab another
win against Lincecum tonight. Take the hotter team as they still have
a lot to play for and know there is little margin for error at this
stage of the season.
Please refer to the all-important SPS Bankroll System instructions received upon joining.