Originally a regular sized pick on a short favorite was planned for
today as our opening MLB bet. Unfortunately certain circumstances and line movements made us decide
What we're left with in Baseball tonight is our 1 unit lean underdog.
Keep in mind, a 1-unit lean equals risking a mere 1% of the bankroll.
It's worth risking small when taking +value underdogs in baseball because
that's where the money is over the course of a season and one can hit
as low as 50% (1 out of 2) to make a nice profit! There are people taking heavy favorites (-160 to -200) each night
and that's a losing proposition since they need to hit a very high percentage
(which they won't) just to break even!
There are 10 NBA games scheduled tomorrow and two teams we really
like! We have every intention of extending our seasonal NBA profit of
19 units and also see several good spots in Baseball which present better
opportunities and will see us place bigger bets. Tuesday is definitely
a big day for us then where as after certain considerations, Monday
is one we'll be taking it more or less easy risking only 3% of our bankroll.
#1: Take Louisville Cardinals
at -4 spread against Michigan Wolverines risking 2 Units
This is the finals of the NCAA tournament and
what a tournament it has been. This year's Brackets has had its share
of upsets and early exits as well as a couple of Cinderella stories
to go along with it. Tonight will be the culmination of March Madness
and this should be a great game to end the college basketball season.
The Louisville Cardinals are arguably the best
team in the league. They have had their ups and downs this season but
this is a team that has pulled it all together and are perhaps the most "complete" team in the country. The Cardinals have
won 15 games in a row and they have usually done so in convincing fashion
by an average of just under 17 points per game! This team has shown its guts and meddle a
couple of times this season and have shown that no matter what happens
in a game, they should never be counted out. In the Finals of the Big
East tournament, they rallied back from a double-digit halftime
deficit to defeat Syracuse in a blowout and just the other night the
Cardinals came back from as many as 12 down in the second half to defeat
the Cinderella Wichita State Shockers in the final minutes of play.
Michigan has been a nice story throughout the
tournament as well. They have played well against some of the best teams
in the country despite having 5 freshman in their lineup. In their last
game, Michigan faced off against Syracuse and were the first team this
tournament to be able to penetrate the vaunted 2-3 zone especially in
the first half. Michigan was able to do this by staying well outside
the 3 point line and simply fire up long range baskets that happened
to go in. You can call it skill, you can call it "good looks"
however the fact that Michigan shot well over 40% from deep had a lot
to do with their victory over the Orange. Michigan will need to shoot
as well if not better if they want to pull out the win tonight. I just
don't think that is going to happen. Louisiville is a defense unlike
any that they have seen this season. Louisville is statistically the best team
at forcing turnovers and that is because they are consistently pressuring
the ball handler. Constant pressure equals opportunities for turnovers.
Another big reason for Michigan's run in this
tournament has been because of the play of Mitch McGary. McGary has
been an absolute force under the basket and has provided Michigan with
an edge in the paint. Against Syracuse McGary pulled down almost half
of his team's offensive rebounds while also accumulating 6 assists.
Syracuse did not have an answer for McGary and ultimately he was the
difference in that game. Tonight that edge will be taken away by Louisville
big man Gorgui Dieng. Dieng is going to pose a problem for McGary tonight.
McGary is a very good player but I wouldn't expect the same type of
impact from him tonight.
The Cards are on a 9-2 ATS run against teams
with a winning record. They're 14-3 ATS when playing with no more than
one day off between games and Louisville is on a 6-0 ATS run as a neutral
court favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points! I had Louisville winning it all in my bracket
this season but usually stayed off spread bets since the went in to
most games as huge (often double digit) favorites. Tonight is a chance
to back them at a lower number and I think they'll get the job done.
While I have been impressed with Michigan since I had them going out
early in the tournament, Louisville's near upset at the hands of the
Shockers is actually going to help the Cardinals tonight I feel. They are not going to take any possession for granted and I fully
expect them to give Michigan all they can handle from start to finish.
Louisville is the better team in my opinion and tonight they prove it
with a win and cover. Lay the points.
#2: Take Houston Astros
on the Moneyline (+150) against Seattle Mariners risking 1% to win 1.5% (Humber and Saunders must start for this game to
The Houston Astros are
not a good team and will lose more games than they will win but that
doesn't necessarily mean that people should completely stay away from
them each and every night. Like any other team, they can be profitable
to back on certain nights. Houston is 1-4 on the season but that is
actually 1 more win than I thought they would have had coming into this
game. Houston unluckily drew both the Texas Rangers and Oakland A's
as their first 2 series opponents to start the season. If you recall
from last season, both Oakland and Texas were two very strong teams
with some really stellar pitching. I am willing to somewhat
forgive Houston for their early season slump simply because they faced
great competition. Tonight they shift their focus to Seattle, which
will be an obvious step down from what the Astros have faced thus far.
The Astros also have another
thing going for them and that is they will be starting newly acquired
Philip Humber tonight. Humber, while not known as an "elite"
pitcher in the league, does throw some quality stuff. In fact, early
on last season he managed to pitch a "Perfect Game" which
shows that when he is "on", he has the capability to baffle
batters. Humber has also had quite
a bit of success against Seattle in the past. Humber has started against
Seattle 3 times in his career and has gone 2-0 with a 1.14 ERA and WHIP
of just .0591 which is pretty impressive! Humber's team is 2-1 against
Seattle when he starts.
Not only will the Astros
be facing Seattle but more importantly they will be facing starting
pitcher Joe Saunders. Saunders is a pitcher whom I have watched and
who I have seen digress over the last few seasons. Saunders was a "good"
pitcher at one time in his career but apart from a few flashes here
and there, he has not really been
good since back in 2009 when he was a member of the Angels! Saunders has had a losing record since then
and gone just 30-44! Not to mention that he
had struggled during spring training giving up over 15 earned runs in
just 11 innings of work.
His pre-season slump carried
on into his first regular season start as he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits
with 4 walks in just 4 innings of work! Given the problems that
he is obviously having with his delivery and control and the fact that
Seattle's offense in the past has not been potent enough to score the
runs needed if their starting pitcher falters, I simply can not see
laying this kind of number with them. Seattle is not one of the "elite"
powerhouse teams in the league and they are more than capable of losing
to the Astros on a bad night behind the arm of Saunders. For that reason
I feel there is value with this significant underdog tonight. Houston
may lose this game but at this level of risk compared to the potential
return, we feel it's worth the minimum 1% bet.
One more key trend:
- Seattle are just 3-7
the last 10 times they have faced weak opponents with winning percentages
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