April 28th 2013 - Posted 11:45 AM Eastern Time


Sometimes the difference between winning and losing is the smallest of margins. Yesterday KC Royals were in the 9th inning leading 3-0 but two meaningless runs from Cleveland meant they still lost but we only 'pushed' on our bet. Today all we needed was one 'meaningless' run from NY Mets or Phillies late in the game but it never came finishing 5-1 as we just miss out.

There were great reasons for taking the Over in both SF Giants vs. Padres and LA Dodgers hosting Milwaukee but while one cashed out, the other didn't.

Then there were the narrow 1-run losses by SF Giants and Minnesota Twins earlier in the week. All in all, a disappointing week then but not one for lack of effort or insight and had only a couple things done a little differently, we would be looking at a good week instead.

We are passing on the late NBA pick but will be back with more plays tomorrow as we start a new chapter and a new week.



#1: Take Philadelphia Phillies / NY Mets to go OVER the posted Total of 7 runs risking 2% (Niese and Hamels must start)

For today's series finale between these two teams the Phillies start Cole Hamels who is not only having the worst year of his career but he has also had no success against the Mets over the years. For the season Hamels has allowed 31 hits and 19 earned runs while striking out 26 over 31.2 innings of work for a 5.40 ERA and a 0-3 record.

The Mets start Jon Niese who left his last start after 2.1 innings after being hit in the leg by a ball. This season Niese has allowed 29 hits and 11 earned runs while striking out 14 over 26 innings of work for a 3.81 ERA.

Both of these pitchers have the capability to shut down the opposing offense, however this season they simply have not been as dominant as they have been in years past. Hitters are getting to these pitchers and I believe that happens again today. The trends that back this total going Over are quite compelling.

The Mets are 16-6 to the Over this season; 6-1 to the over when the total is at 7 or less and 8-2 to the Over after a loss, 8-3 to the Over against a divisional opponent and 6-3 to the Over against left handed starters. Philly on the other hand is 4-1 to the Over in daytime games, 6-4 to the Over when the total is 7 or less.

In 39 meetings between these two teams over the last 3 season, the total have gone Over in 30 of those games which includes 15 of the last 19 in New York! With the total being at 7, all of the value here lies with the over.



#2: Take LA Dodgers / Milwaukee Brewers to go OVER the posted Total of 6.5 runs risking 2% (Kershaw and Lohse must start)

This total is simply way too low for a game with some capable hitters and two pitchers who although generally very good have been struggling recently. Yes both Clayton Kershaw and Kyle Lohse are typically pitchers that when you think of them, you think dominance but that has simply not been the case this season. While both pitchers are still quality hurlers, they both have not had much success in starts against the other team. Both are 2-3 lifetime with a lifetime ERA of 5.00 against each other. When Kershaw has pitched against Milwaukee, the total has gone over 5 out of the last 6 times!

The lines-makers typically view the Dodgers as a team that dominates with pitching, scoring just enough runs to grind out a low scoring win. While that is somewhat true, it is worth noting that 9 of the last 11 Dodgers games have gone Over the total while 4 of the last 5 Milwaukee games have soared Over as well.

Last night these two teams played to a 6-4 Milwaukee final. Milwaukee is also 5-2 to the Over in daytime games, 7-3 to the over in road games, and 5-2 to the Over against left handed pitchers. The last 6 games Dodgers have played at home have all gone Over the total and the Over is 7-3 after a loss.



#3: Take San Francisco Giants / San Diego Padres to go OVER the posted Total of 7.5 runs risking 2% (Vogelsong and Marquis must start)

Somewhat like the other two games, the total for this game is all about 2 pitchers that have been struggling and have yet to find their footing this season. Both Ryan Vogelsong and Jason Marquis have ERA's of 5.68 and 4.63 respectively. Between both pitchers, they have surrendered a combined 21 earned runs in their last 3 starts including 8 home runs! Both have been hit and have been hit hard. When Vogelsong has started against San Diego in the past, the Over is 4-1 lifetime in his starts.

For some reason, when these two teams meet in Petco Park, the total almost always pushes Over the limit. In 20 games over the last 3 seasons, the total has gone Over in 16 of those games! Does this mean it will again go over today? Not necessarily but it does mean historical trends as well as many other factors point toward that and that's what we have to make decisions based on.

San Diego has won the first 2 games of this series after San Francisco swept them the previous week. You know that the Giants will not want to be swept by the lowly Padres and given the way both pitchers have given up runs, the only way to do that is to outscore each other. There were 15 runs scored in last night's game and now that we are deeper into the pitching rotation, it is reasonable to expect the runs to keep coming. I believe we will see 8 or more runs today.



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