There are 3 picks risking a total
of 8% from our bankroll tonight.
#1: Take Boston Red Sox / Baltimore Orioles to
go OVER the posted total of 9 runs risking 2 Units. (Aceves and Tillman must start for this game to
We played the Over yesterday and it cashed out
late in the game (13 runs in total) after a rain delay killed all the
momentum that the Red Sox had going at the time. That will not be the
case tonight. The weather is supposed to be clear and in the high 40's
for tonight's game which means the hitting should continue.
Alfredo Aceves gets the start for Boston tonight.
Aceves is a multi-functional pitcher, he has played mid reliever, closer
and now starter. The issue that I have against Aceves is that I have
seen him play and I don't believe he was really that good of a closer
and now he is going to pitch a full game? The Red Sox had more blown saves the last 2 seasons
since Jonathan Paplebon left than they have in the last 4 seasons combined
and most of that was due to Aceves not being able to save a lead. Aceves will give up some runs the longer he stays in there and with
the Baltimore bats always ready to unload, I think it is only a matter
of time before the bats get to him. Aceves has pitched 4 innings this season over
2 appearances and has given up 5 earned runs on 5 hits with 2 home-runs
and that is out of the bullpen! The Orioles bats could have a field day if Aceves
has another game like that.
Then there is the issue of the Red Sox bullpen.
As we saw last night, no lead is safe with them as they managed to give
up 4 runs with 2 outs in the 9th... with a bullpen like that, runs are
not out of the questions no matter how late in a game it gets. There
is always a chance to score more.
For Baltimore, Chris Tillman gets the start and
while I don't believe Tillman is that bad of a pitcher, he did get lit
up in his first start this season. Tillman pitched less than 4 innings but he gave
up 7 hits, 5 earned runs and a home-run before being pulled. Tillman
has had a history of bad outings, in fact Baltimore pitching has not really been
their strong suit over the last few years, their offense has which has
made up for less than stellar pitching.
With both teams seeing the ball rather well and
with both pitchers' propensity to give up runs in a hurry, I think the
over is the play with the most value again today.
Take NY Knicks at -4 spread against Chicago Bulls risking 3 Units
The Knicks have to be the
hottest team in the league right now. They are simply firing on all
cylinders and it couldn't have happened at a better time for them. The
playoffs are right around the corner and the team who gets stuck playing
the Knicks in the opening round have better be prepared. The Knicks
have won 13 straight and covered 13 of their last 14 games! This is
simply a team on a mission right now and Carmelo Anthony is playing
the absolute best basketball of his career. Anthony has scored 35+ points
in 4 straight games and it doesn't appear that he is slowing down! The
way Anthony is playing right now he could drop 40 on a depleted Bulls
The Bulls are no strangers
to ending streaks. If everyone recalls they were the team that ended
the Miami Heat's impressive 27 game winning streak last month. While
it is possible that Chicago does it once again, I just don't think that
is going to happen. This is a different Bulls team right now than the
one that played Miami. The Bulls have been riddled with injuries and
I believe their motivation right now is to simply get ready for post
season play. They don't care about this game as much as they did about
the Miami game.
Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson
are out for this game and Luol Deng is 'doubtful'. Even if Deng does
play, he's not likely to be at his best. That basically leaves
Boozer and Heinrich to carry the load. The biggest question is, with
those players out, who is going to cover Anthony on the perimeter? What
if Anthony and JR Smith are on the floor at the same time, then what
do the Bulls do? The Knicks just have too much offense for the Bulls
at this point in the season. New York has all the momentum and motivation
to come into this game and play their hearts out while Chicago is fine
with taking a night off and simply getting healthy for the playoffs.
Chicago has a grueling 4 game road trip ahead of them so I wouldn't
be surprised to see them save some energy for the road tonight. The
Knicks are a freight train right now and they are going to run all over
The Knicks also have the
added motivation of 'revenge' tonight. Chicago has beaten NY 3
times this season and teams rarely get swept; let alone a good team
like Knicks who are playing much better basketball right now. Those
3 wins came a long time ago in different circumstances but were all
close losses! That will motivate the Knicks who will be keen to get
one in over Chicago and continue their impressive winning streak. Lay
Some Trends to consider:
- Knicks are
5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last
6 games overall.
#3: Take Oklahoma City Thunder
at -4 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 3 Units
With the Spurs falling to the Denver Nuggets
last night, The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing for 1st place
in the Western Conference tonight. The Thunder also helped Golden State
secure their spot in the playoffs this season by knocking off the Utah
Jazz on Tuesday.
The Thunder have beaten the Warriors 7 out
of the last 8 times they have played and covered 5 out of the last 6! Oklahoma City has been having another incredibly regular season thanks
mostly in part to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Everyone knows
of Kevin Durant's scoring abilities; he has won the league scoring title
3 years in a row but Russell Westbrook has come into his own as well
and has averaged 28 point in 4 games this month and has only committed
only 1 turnover for the second straight game! Westbrook is just too strong, fast and athletic
for most point guards to defend. He has averaged just over 20 points
per game in their three games against Golden State this season while
holding his counterpart Stephen Curry to just 14 points in their last
meeting. It's worth noting that while Kevin Durant is
hard to contain for any team, he has had an especially great time against
GS Warriors having scored an average of just over 30 points against
them in 20 career meetings!
The Oklahoma City defense has also been a big
story over the last few weeks as they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents
to fewer than 90 points a game! That is a particularly glaring statistic considering
that Oklahoma City themselves rank second in the league in field goal
percentage at 42.5 and are one of the top offensive teams in the league
scoring an average of 105 points per game. Golden State is not a team
that relies on defense to win their games. Although their defense has
been better as of late, Golden State typically relies on their prolific
offense to carry them in games, that is going to be a wash tonight as
OKC is one of the teams in the league that can match Golden State score
The Oklahoma City defense is going to be the
difference in this game tonight. I think Curry is going to struggling
matching up with Westbrook and like many other teams, Golden State will
just not have an answer for Kevin Durant. There will be plenty of offense
in this game but the Oklahoma defense is what gives them the edge tonight.
Some recent trends to consider:
- Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings
- The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings
- Oklahoma City is 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. NBA Pacific and
- Oklahoma City is 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 Thursday games
- Golden State is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days
- Golden State is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight
- Golden State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win
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