10% of the bankroll is being
risked on 4 different games tonight. Two baseball games and two NBA
#1: Take Washington Wizards at -3 spread against
Miami Heat risking 3 Units.
This game immediately stood out to me like a sore thumb. Here we have
the Miami Heat, the team with the absolute best record in the league;
a team that won 27 straight games this season; a team that will more
than likely win the NBA championship again this season and yet they opened up as 2 point underdogs to the Washington Wizards? That seems awfully
fishy to me.
There is no doubt in my mind that the lines-makers know something
about this game. The Heat only need 1 more win to clinch home court
advantage throughout the playoffs but they have elected to sporadically
rest their starters in order to get healthy and rested come playoff
time. Bosh and Wade have sat out, Allen has sat out, it seems that the
only player who has been playing is LeBron James and even he is questionable
for tonights game. The lines-makers rarely ever release a line in a
game simply on speculation. If there was a question of who was actually
playing and sitting they would have been holding off on the release
of this line until as late as possible just as they did that with the
Celtics / Wizards game this past weekend where the line was finally
released a few hours before the game.
There are many people who are counting Washington out of this game
even if the Miami backups do play, I think that would be a big mistake.
In fact Washington has a chance at home even if no one from Miami does
get rested. At home they have played as well as anyone and even though
Washington isn't playoff bound this season, they are on a 9-game home winning
streak where they have been playing extremely well over the last couple of
weeks and we have cashed out numerous times during this run. They have knocked
off some big time opponents this season which actually includes the
Miami Heat earlier this year with all of their starters! Even though the
Wizards won't be in the post season, this home winning streak has been
something for not only the players to get excited and motivated but
the fans to get excited about as well. The Wizards have been playing
great and tonight is another chance for them to show everyone that come
next season, they could be a force to be reckoned with. The line tells
me something about this game as well and that is to back the Wizards to stretch their home win streak to an impressive
10 games! The public is all over Miami as usual but the Wizards are actually
6-2 ATS at home if they played the night before. Back them to upset
#2: Take Baltimore Orioles / Boston Red Sox to
go OVER the posted total of 9 runs risking 2 units
There are a number of positve trends that are showing that this game
is more likely to go over the posted total tonight. The first is the
fact that Jake Arrieta is pitching for Baltimore. Arrieta had struggled
a majority of last season and struggled in his first start this season
as well. Arrieta went five-plus innings, allowed 5 runs on 7 hits, walked
2 and struck out 5. Arrieta also simply hasn't had a lot of success
against the Red Sox in his career either as he is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA.
The Red Sox lineup is also extremely familiar with Arrieta and have
had quite a bit of success against him. As a team the Sox are batting
.500 against him which include 7 home runs in 38 at bats.
Ryan Dempster hasn't fared all that much better himself. Dempster
is a below .500 pitcher and the Baltimore Orioles hitters enjoy a .337
combined batting average against him. Dempster faired well in his first
start of the season, but those kind of numbers are just not an accurate
portrayal of how Dempster truly pitches.
Both the Red Sox and Orioles share a tie for 2nd for the most hits
per game which currently sit at 10. Ironically both teams against a
tied for 2nd in the league when it comes to giving up hits as well.
Both are tied at 7.9 per game. Being able to hit the ball consistently
and also allowing the opposing team to hit the ball consistently is
a recipe for a lot of offense from both sides.
Against Division and Conference opponents the Over is a combined 9-5
between both these teams. Both teams offenses struggled in yesterdays
games due to stellar pitching from both Buchholz and Chen, I don't think
that will be the case today. The bats should be able to find both pitchers
fairly easily tonight and I believe this game goes over before the 8th
Some other trends that support an Over in this game:
- Over is 4-0
in Arrietas last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 10-1
in Arrietas last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less
in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1
in Arrietas last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 10-2
in Arrietas last 12 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
- Over is 10-2
in Arrietas last 12 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous
- Over is 12-5
in Arrietas last 17 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 12-5-1
in Arrietas last 18 starts as a road underdog
- Over is 7-3
in Arrietas last 10 starts
- Over is 9-4
in Arrietas last 13 road starts
- Over is 4-0
in Red Sox last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter
- Over is 6-2-1
in Cory Blasers' last 9 games behind home plate. (Blasters is the home
plate umpire tonight)
#3: Take Denver Nuggets at -3 spread against San
Antonio Spurs risking 3 Units
Here we have two of the top teams in the league. You have the Spurs
who are the #1 team in the West against the absolute most dominant home team in the league in the Denver Nuggets. The difference
in this game is going to come down to not only the fact that the Spurs
are on the road and the Nuggets simply do not lose at home but the fact
that the Spurs front court will simpy not be able to keep pace with
the Nuggets in the altitude of Denver.
Tim Duncan is an absolute beast for being 36 years old but this is
not the best situation for him to be in tonight against a much younger
and more athletic JaVale McGee and younger Denver front court. Even
though McGee comes off the bench and doesn't start the game, he now
sees the majority of the minutes at the 5 spot. In their last game against
the Spurs back on March 27, McGee scored 21 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in 26 minutes when
matched up against Duncan. Duncan had 23 points in 36 minutes.
has won 19 of their last 21 overall including their last 20 home games!
On the season the Nuggets are 35-3 on their home court. Denver has been dealing with the loss of Danilo Gallinari who is
out for the season with a knee injury. I'm not overly concerned about
the Gallinari loss as the Nuggets seemed to deal fine with the Ty Lawson
injury. Denver is an incredibly deep team and it seems that when one
player goes down with an injury or has a poor shooting performance,
there is another one ready to step up and share the load. Andre Miller
has stepped in and taken over the point position and the veteran point
guard has been playing well. Miller had 14 points and 8 assists off
the bench on March 27 against the Spurs, and had 11 points and 12 assists
Lawson could return tonight in limited minutes though Miller is holding
down the fort well as is Evan Fournier, who had 17 points against Houston
off the bench. The Nuggets also have wing Corey Brewer, who scored 22 points off
the bench. Even underachieving Andre Iguodala added 18 and a season-high 14
assists against Houston. The "Manimal" Faried has also stepped
up big and has become an X factor on this team as of late. The Spurs
are a deep team as well but with the aging Spurs ailing from nagging
injuries themselves, it is just a matter of time before it catches up
with them. The Spurs have alternated wins and losses over their last
few games and in the later part of the season, they do not appear to
be the dominating Spurs of old.
The Spurs will always make a game of whoever they are playing but
I think playing a younger and more athletic team in altitude away from
home is going to catch up with them tonight. Lay the points with Denver
as they extend their home winning streak.
Some trends to consider:
- Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall
- Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss
- Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points
or more in their previous game
- Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.
- Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.
- Denver is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by more
than 10 points.
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125
points in their previous game
- Denver is 11-3
ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Southwest
- Denver is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS
#4: Take Oakland Athletics on the moneyline (+110)
against Los Angeles Angels risking 2 Units
The Oakland Athletics are picking up the 2013 season right where they
left off last season. The A's had won the American League West last
year after an impressive but somewhat surprising 2012 season and since
dropping their first 2 games to open up the 2013 season, the A's have
managed to rattle off 6 straight victories. Oakland has done this with
not only stellar pitching but with stellar hitting as well. To start
the season the Oakland pitching staff is only giving up an average of
3 runs total in a game while the offense has been doing their part and
average just under 6 runs a game. It's clear that the Athletics are out to prove that last year's season
was no fluke and that they are the real deal.
The LA Angels on the other hand are heading in the exact opposite
direction. The Angels were supposed to be a team that everyone feared.
They are saturated with talent on both sides of the ball and yet they
have not been able to put it all together. The Angels acquired heavy
hitter Josh Hamilton in the off-season to compliment slugger Albert
Pujols and second year sensation Mike Trout. The bats have simply not
been there to start the season for the Angels. Much like last year after
Albert Pujols was traded to Anaheim, Pujols struggled to start the season and he is struggling once again
this season going just 5-22 to start the year. Josh Hamilton is experiencing a similar situation as he is struggling
at the plate as well going just 4-29 in an Angels uniform.
Pitching has been the main concern of the Angels and that has clearly
been their weak point this season. The Angles are simply giving up more
runs than they are generator themselves. Currently Angels pitching is
giving up close to an average of 5 runs a game, while the offense is
only generator an average of just over 4 runs a game. Tonight I don't
believe is going to be much better for the Angels either as they send
former Phillies pitcher Joe Blanton to the mound. Blanton was both a profitable fade and "Over" bet last season
as he simply gets "beat up" in a majority of the starts he
makes. He was the 5th man on the Phillies rotation and there was a reason
for that. He has also picked up right where he left off last season and had
a poor opening start to the season. Against Cincinnati he was blasted
for 7 hits in 5 innings and gave up 5 runs ( 4 earned ) in a 5-4 loss.
Against an Oakland team that is currently seeing the ball well this
could turn into a long night for Blanton.
Oakland sends Tom Milone to the mound tonight. Milone is looking to
follow up his 13 win season last year with another great season and
he appears to be well on his way. In his first start, Milone performed
well against the Mariners as he went 7 innings giving up just 4 hits
and allowing 2 runs (both earned) in a 6-2 victory. The thing that I really like about Milone is that last season he
had 137 strikeouts compared to just 36 walks. He is truly a consistent
pitcher. Last season he had an ERA in the 3.00's each month of the season.
He simply does not have a whole lot of bad performances and should have
been the favorite in this pitching match-up.
Given the way both of these teams are playing right now, I don't see
any other play than backing the red hot Athletics, they are hands down
the team playing better baseball at the moment. The fact they they are
the underdogs and offering '+' money is simply a bonus.
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