September 27th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM ET
There are 3 picks risking a total of 6% from our bankroll today.
The write-ups will be added in the afternoon at once.
Football proved extremely lucrative last year for those who remained the course from the opening week all the way to the Super Bowl as they profited greatly and saw SPS outdo all competitors! We are confident of repeating that and welcome back loyal long-term clients who have rejoined us.
On another note, it is always worth remembering that profiting from sports is a daily grind and no easy task. It is a marathon and not a race and there will be both ups and downs along the way. Those who are patient and disciplined will reap the rewards! Because much like even championship winning teams, SPS will inevitably suffer some losses but we win more often than not and will once again be at the very top by February! As such, the real value lies in long term success and results should only be evaluated at the end of the season.
Finally, although it does not affect SPS, we highly recommend that clients place their bets with a book that offers 'Reduced Juice'. Wagering at -105 vig/juice instead of -110 makes a huge difference over the course of a long season! It is the primary distinction between clients who profit big and those that profit small since the picks are the same for everyone.
Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will at times decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa.
#1: Take SMU at +31 spread against TCU risking 2%
First of all, we are not saying that SMU is a good team, because they are not. We are also not saying that they have a chance to win this game outright because more than likely that will not be the case. In sports-betting, there are a number of factors that weigh in on supposed matchups and at the end of the day, it is all about which side ultimately covers and cashes the ticket at the final whistle. SMU is 0-3 both straight up and ATS. They have been blown out in each of their games. That has swayed the betting public to incorrectly assume that will be the case each and every game and many are blindly playing against them regardless of how many points they get. That is a losing proposition. This is a exactly the time when odd-makers intentially add on a few points to at least get some wagers (action) on the inferior side. TCU could win this game by 28, but Vegas realize they will still get action releasing the game at -31. This is where experience in deciphering lines and understanding the intangibles come into play.
SMU hasn't played well; we've established that, however they have also had an incredibly tough schedule to start the season. Games at Baylor and North Texas followed by facing Texas A&M, would be tough for most teams. The TCU Horned Frogs are improved this year but not at A&M or Baylor's level. There is no doubt that SMU, both the coaching staff and the players on the field are tired of being the countries' 'whipping boys' and will start to show more effort to at least salvage a sense of competitiveness and pride.
TCU is a solid team, but they are not elite. They do not have the high octane offense of Baylor or the hard-nosed defense of North Texas, they do not have a Heisman hopeful like Kenny Hill; they are simply a team who has beaten a couple of creampuffs at home and now travel for their first road game. TCU has played Samford and Minnesota at home thus far and neither of those teams can be considered 'good'. And yet despite the easy schedule, the TCU offense has had issues with turnovers. The Horned Frogs have coughed up the ball twice in each of their first two games. Those turnovers didn't cost them those game but it did cost them two valuable possessions which are opportunities to score and extend the lead. When laying more than 30 points on the highway, the road team needs to make the most out of each and every possession in to cover the big number and we don't feel that'll be the case today.
Garry Patterson is also not the type of coach who tries to run up the score on opponents. While college football has a lot to do with "style points" and blowing out an opponent at times, He is not the type of coach who usually follows suit. In games where he has had big leads, he has been known to take his foot off the gas pedal, run the clock out by running the football and has even pulled his starters in the second half to prevent injuries. We feel that will likely happen this afternoon especially since TCU has a huge season-defining game on deck next week with the Oklahoma Sooners coming to town! Patterson and the players are well aware of that and are undoubtedly looking forward to that matchup and aren't expecting the Mustangs to put up much of a fight in this one. That is an incredibly dangerous mindset to be in and while they get will the win, it doesn't mean this game will be a complete blowout. Patterson will no doubt want to keep his starters healthy in this one and if the game is already out of reach by half time, there's no reason to risk injuries. Once TCU jumps out to a good lead and has the game in control, we expect them to take things easy, which opens up the door for SMU.
This TCU team isn't built to blow teams out and while they will more than likely get themselves a big lead and a comfortable victory, we don't feel that it will be enough to cover this hefty number. The Mustangs have had issues putting points on the board thus far this season but should do better today and keep within this number. This is not a game we recommend watching and will more than likely be a blowout, but we expect the Mustang to cover and disappoint the public. There is a time and a place to back even the poorest of teams and that is the case with SMU today.
#2: Take Indiana at -3 spread against Maryland risking 2%
The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off a big upset over the Missouri Tigers and are hoping they can qualify for their first bowl game since 2007. This is an Indiana team that is playing with purpose and had it not been for a late TD by Bowling Green, the Hoosiers could have found themselves 3-0 this season! A big part of Indiana's success this season has been their potent offense. While they have normally been known for their Air-Raid attack, they are balanced this season and have rushed with great effectiveness.
The Hoosiers have a duel-headed rushing monster that is proving to be tough for opponents to stop. Tevin Coleman and D'Angelo Roberts have combined for nearly 800 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, as Indiana is averaging 6 yards per carry as a team! Coleman is one of the best in the country and has put up 569 rushing yards and 6 TDs on just 66 carries! Roberts has also been pulling his weight, with 214 yards and three scores. The Hoosiers have 27 runs of more than 10 yards this season and that is going to be something that Maryland will have to contain to stay in this game.
As good as Indiana is on the ground, they are equally as dangerous through the air with QB Nate Sudfeld. Sudfeld hasn't had to do much to carry his team this season with the ground game taking a lot of the pressure off of him in the pocket, but he has been efficient when the football has been in his hands, completing over 65% of his passes on the season. This Hoosier offense is tough for opponents to deal with simply because it is one of the most balanced in the country, they are averaging 547 yards per game and against a Maryland defense that is giving up an average of over 460, we expect them to move the ball up and down the field.
Maryland are 3-1 on the year with their only loss coming at the hands of Clint Trickett and West Virginia. This Indiana team is built similar to that of WVU, except with a more potent offense. Maryland has also benefited from some very lucky bounces this season. Their defense has been poor but been able to create turnovers, which has aided in their early season success. They have played in some close games thus far and had it not been for them winning the turnover battle, they could easily find themselves 1-3 instead of 3-1. Turnovers are not a given in any game. How good will Maryland be if they don't have the added benefit of getting fortunate turnovers in their own red zone? Their defense even forced 4 turnovers in their loss to WVU but they still lost that game. The Terrapins were out-gained by 220 yards in their last game and were also outplayed in the previous one but escaped both games with a victory. That is a big red flag and not something we expect to continue.
Indiana's win at Missouri has instilled a sense of confidence in this team. The Hoosiers had long been the forgotten team in the Big 10 and now that they are playing well, we expect them to enjoy and ride this momentum. This is Maryland's first game since switching joining the Big 10 and this is an extremely tough matchup for them. They also have a huge game when they host Ohio State next week and even though we don't believe Indiana is a team that should be looked over, with a powerhouse like Ohio State looming in their future, it will be hard for any young player to not have that matchup occupy at least a little bit of their focus.
The Indiana defense does have some question marks to it but watching the Missouri game, they did find a way to contain Maty Mauk and a potent Tigers offense. If they can bring the same intensity against the Maryland front line, it's going to be hard for the Terps to keep pace with the Hoosiers. They have shown their ability to score touchdowns and not settle for field goals and we expect that to be the difference this afternoon. Indiana usually finishes drives and doesn't rely as heavily on their opponents' mistakes as Maryland does. They should spoil Maryland's debut in conference play and in what could be a high-scoring game, we believe they will do so by more than a field goal.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Maryland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Maryland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win!
- Indiana is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Maryland is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
#3: Take UTSA (Texas San Antonio) at -5.5 spread against Florida Atlantic risking 2%
The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners travel to FAU Stadium take on the Florida Atlantic Owls in their Conference USA opener.
The Roadrunners are the most experienced team in the country! With over 20 starters returning this season, they have proven to be a quality team. Even though they are just 1-2 thus far, they have shown their mettle by beating a solid Houston team on the road and nearly knocking off the Arizona Wildcats, losing by 3 when they had the ball intercepted on the final drive of the game! They were blown out by the Oklahoma State Cowboys although they did hold their own in the early going before the Cowboys pulled away in the second half. UTSA has played an incredibly tough schedule so far this season and tonight they take a step down when facing the FAU Owls. The Roadrunners have also had an extra week to regroup and prepare for this game as they are coming off a much needed bye week.
For the FAU Owls, they haven’t had much to cheer about this season. Other than a 50-21 stomping of an extremely poor Tulsa team, the Owls have been outclassed in each of their other 3 games. They lost consecutive games against Nebraska and Alabama by a combined score of 96-7! Last week‚ they lost in more heartbreaking fashion‚ with a last-second field goal sinking them in a 20-19 final versus Wyoming. To lose in that fashion against an extremely poor team like Wyoming had to be deflating to the players and shake their beliefs.
UTSA has been somewhat inconsistent on the offensive end, however given the quality of opponents they have played, it is not completely surprising. The true staple of this team has been their defense. They have limited some high potent offenses such as the Houston Cougars, Arizona Wildcats and Oklahoma State Cowboys to just an average of 5 yards per play. Against a team like the Owls, we expect thir stout defense to reduce that number.
FAU has been wildly inconsistent offensively this season and putting points on the board has been a problem. The Owls have gained just 1‚159 total yards in four games! They are scoring just 19 points per outing‚ and both figures have them ranked near the bottom of the FBS. While the FAU offense has been stuck in a rut‚ the defense hasn't been much better as they have had trouble slowing their opponents down. The Owls are giving up an astounding 525.2 yards per game‚ while being lit up for 34.2 points on average. Their work on third down has been a primary issue as they are allowing teams to convert 46 percent of their attempts on 3rd down!
While both of these teams are more obscure than most, the Roadrunners are the better and more experienced team in this contest. Florida Atlantic will also be playing rivals Florida International next week and that'll be on their minds. This will be UTSA's third road game of the season so the travel should not bother them as much. They had an extra week to fix some of the issues that caused them to drop two straight games, but with the step down in competition, we expect them to get back to winning ways and to win by 2 FGs or more.
Other notable facts to consider:
- UTSA is 10-3 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
- UTSA is 4-0 ATS as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons!
- UTSA is 6-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last 3 seasons.
Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.