September 22nd 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM ET
Tuesday's picks will be posted at 3:00 PM ET.
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Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will at times decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa.
Take New York Jets at -1 spread against Chicago Bears risking 2%
The Chicago Bears head to Met Life Stadium to take on the New York Jets in Monday Night Football tonight. This is an extremely intriguing matchup on a number of levels. Both of these teams are 1-1 on the season, so this game will ultimately determine which team leaves East Rutherford with a winning record and which finds itself in a 1-2 hole.
The Chicago Bears head into this game after mounting a late second half rally to shock the San Francisco 49ers last weekend! The Bears scored 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to upend San Francisco in improbable fashion 28-20! Meanwhile, the New York Jets played extremely well at Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers before squandering an 18 point lead to ultimately fall 31-24! There is no doubt that the final result of those games are still fresh in the betting public's mind and perceptions are skewed because of it.
The Bears comeback against a Super bowl caliber team was impressive, there is no question about that, however, prior to the 4th quarter, they were dominated. Thanks to a +4 turnover differential, they won a game in which they were outyarded and largely outplayed. Brandon Marshall also had some amazing acrobatic catches in that game which allowed the Bears to sustain drives and put points on the board. Everything fell the Bears way late in that game including costly turnovers but that is not something that will happen on a weekly basis, especially in back-to-back road games.
The Jets meanwhile had a lot of things go against them in their game with Green Bay but were impressive overall. Mounting such an early and big lead can often cause teams to get complacent and that was evident in that game. Complacency is a killer in the professional sports world. Despite giving up such a commanding lead, the Jets showed character and and came back to tie the game late but an ill-advised timeout from the sidelines negated what would have been the tying touchdown pass thrown by Geno Smith. Had that TD not been, called back, the ending of that game may have played out very differently.
We also feel that this is a bad matchup for the Bears tonight. Chicago is dealing with a number of injuries on both the offensive and defensive side. Both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are less than 100% and that will impact their mobility and effectiness. There are also key injuries on the defensive side, both on the line and in the secondary; most notably Charles Tillman who is out for the season. The offensive line will be missing guard Matt Slauson and Center Roberto Garza, two key pieces responsible for the protection of QB Jay Cutler.
With all of the injuries that the Bears are facing, we don't expect them to receive any sympathy from an opportunistic Jets defense. Rex Ryan is one of the best defensive minds of the game and if it's one thing that the Jets have been known for, it's smash mouth defense. So far this season, Ryan's crew ranks near the top of the league in defending the run, so it could be another quiet night for Forte and Chicago could have issue moving the ball against this defensive line. That is going to force the ball into the hands of Jay Cutler and while has played well this season, he has been known for being a loose cannon. He has a rocket of an arm, but his decision making often leaves a lot to be desired. The Cutler of old had been a turnover machine and often gets frustrated. He also has a very poor record against-the-spread as a starting QB. The Jets have recorded 9 sacks already this season! They bring extreme pressure and exotic blitz packages which put immense pressure on the opposing QB. Meanwhile
The Bears defense has also been completely gashed on the ground this season. They rank 27th in the league in defending the run! We all know that the Jets strength has been running the football. They currently rank #1 in the league in rushing, currently averaging right around 150 yards per game. With Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson leading the ground attack against a porous Bears defense, we expect them to have success there and to also open up the passing lane for Geno Smith who is no longer looking like a rookie QB.
Over the first two games of the season, we have seen tremendous growth in Smith. Coming into his second year, it appears that his vision and confidence has improved as has his decision making. Ryan has made things easy on him thus far due to the success the Jets have been having on the ground, and against the suspect Chicago run defense, that should be the case again tonight. When Smith has been in passing situations, he has been successful converting nearly 64% of his attempts this season.
The Bears will have logged a lot of miles over the last week having played in San Fran last week and now flying across country to play on the East Coast! That is no easy task and they are also in a letdown spot after their come from behind victory which was fairly fortunate. The NY Jets are not a poor team by any stretch of the imagination and on the national stage, we expect them to make the watching world respect them as they have on some previous editions of MNF. The Jets should win this game and with the spread being as low as it is, the victory should bring the cover with it.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Bears are 4-13 ATS when the line is 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
- NY Jets are 5-2 ATS home favorites of 3 points or less.
- Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
- Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games off a loss versus an opponent that is off a SU/ATS win
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