September 15th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM ET
Football proved extremely lucrative last year for those who remained the course from the opening week all the way to the Super Bowl as they profited greatly and saw SPS outdo all competitors! We are confident of repeating that and welcome back loyal long-term clients who have rejoined us.
On another note, it is always worth remembering that profiting from sports is a daily grind and no easy task. It is a marathon and not a race and there will be both ups and downs along the way. Those who are patient and disciplined will reap the rewards! Because much like even championship winning teams, SPS will inevitably suffer some losses but we win more often than not and will once again be at the very top by February! As such, the real value lies in long term success and results should only be evaluated at the end of the season.
Finally, although it does not affect SPS, we highly recommend that clients place their bets with a book that offers 'Reduced Juice'. Wagering at -105 vig/juice instead of -110 makes a huge difference over the course of a long season! It is the primary distinction between clients who profit big and those that profit small since the picks are the same for everyone.
Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will at times decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa.
Take Indianapolis Colts at -3 spread against Philadelphia Eagles risking 2%
The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night football. The Colts headed home from their season opener after falling just short in Denver last week. Andrew Luck led a near game-tying drive with under 3 mins to play and almost sent the game against Broncos to overtime. Their second half rally showed this teams' character and Luck's leadership and should have given this team confidence in knowing that they can compete with the very best in the league.
Meanwhile the Philadelphia Eagles are coming into this game after a double-digit win against the Jacksonville Jaguars but that wasn't without its scary moments for Chip Kelly's team. The Eagles were down 17-0 at half time, in a game that saw the Jaguars force turnover after turnover and apply pressure to Nick Foles. Part of the reason for the Eagles' early struggles were due to missing pieces in their offensive line.
Philadelphia's O-line has been decimated with injuries and suspensions this season with players like Evan Mathis, Lane Johnson and a reserve lineman, Allen Barbre out. Matt Tobin has also sat out practice with an ankle injury. The O-line is arguably the most important and often overlooked piece to a team’s offense. Not only do they protect the quarterback from opposing defenses pressure schemes, but they are also the catalysts for opening up running lanes which allow the RBs to break into the open field. For those who know Chip Kelly, his offense is driven around establishing the run. Both LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles were held somewhat in 'check' last week by Jacksonville, at least more so than what we have been used to seeing and especially in the first half. A big part of that was because of the lackluster offensive line. If Indianapolis can exploit some of the inexperience that the Eagles have there, they should be able to slow down the Philadelphia rushing attack.
The Colts are headed back to Lucas Oil Stadium, where they have had plenty of success over the last 3 seasons. The Colts are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played at home while Eagles struggle when playing in the dome.. Indy has also been flawless when coming off of a defeat! Since Andrew Luck arrived, the Colts are 10-0 ATS when coming off a loss! It's also worth mentioning that Luck himself has not loss back-to-back games since his freshman year at Stanford! The Colts will be very motivated to avoid starting the season 0-2.
There has also been a huge shift in the spreads on these two teams between their Week 1 and Week 2 matchups. Last week the Eagles were 10 point favorites but tonight they are +3 underdogs, on the same note the Colts were as high as +9 underdogs at some point last week but are now -3 favorites! Those are extremely telling swings on how we feel the oddmakers see things playing out. Looking at the matchups from Week 1, the Colts played a much tougher opponent in the Broncos on the road while the Eagles had the luxury of playing Jacksonville at home and yet still struggled.
The Colts often show up on the big stage and are 7-0 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 3+ points on Monday Night Football! The national stage is something that Andrew Luck has long been used to as he has endured the media spotlight since his early days in college. He always seems to show up and play his best when the world is watching and tonight is another chance for him to show everyone that he is worth all of the praise that he receives. The same cannot be said for Nick Foles who emerged last year in limited appearances.
Foles had a spectacular season last year and came from virtually out of nowhere to throw 25+ touchdown passes and just 2 interceptions all season long! He took over from Michael Vick and helped this team to the playoffs. Foles however has never been thrust into the spotlight like he has been this offseason. He played college at Arizona and never really received that much hype during his tenure. He flew under the radar for much of season last year but now has a ton of pressure on him each and every week. We saw him struggle in the preseason and committ turnovers in the opener against Jaguards. Now playing on Monday Night Football, with the entire country watching, he will be once again be thrown into the limelight. How he will handle the pressure is yet to be seen but we don't expect him to be as poised as Luck.
The Indianapolis Colts have won 8 of their last 10 home openers and we believe that trend will continue tonight. They have proven nearly unbeatable at home (especially coming off a loss) over the last few seasons and will be eager to come out of this game with a win to avoid the dreaded 0-2 record. If they can avoid meaningless penalties and establish their running game, they will win and cover the spread.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Colts are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Eagles.
- Eagles are just 3-10 as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
- Andrew Luck has never lost consecutive games as an NFL starter!
- Eagles are 0-7 ATS since 2010 after allowing 4 sackes in the previous game!
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